NFL Week 17

[nafselon]

If Foles pulls the unthinkable, he should retire while holding up the Lombardi Trophy. Just spend the rest of his life walking the streets of Philly, beloved and never having to buy a beer or a cheesesteak. He could have pretty much done that last year too, but repeating? Just mindblowing to think about.

I'd take the $130M contract first and five years later he could still walk the streets of Philly not having to buy a beer or a cheesesteak .

This is a pretty remarkable story looking at it without a dog in the fight. Basically out of the league, comes back, leads an improbable Super Bowl run off the bench. Has a chance to pull a repeat and either way he's going to sign a contract to make life-changing money in the spring.

 

[poindexter]

The Eagles have taken a massive, steaming **** on the Rams two straight seasons. Both in LA, with so many annoying Eagles fans there.

I can't stand the Eagles, but man, do I love Nick Foles. Damn, I love that guy.

 

[justgladtobehere]

I'm not comparing them, I took the career numbers and divided by 20. Brady's played about as many seasons in the new passing era as he did in the comparatively but not really stingy aughts. He's had three game with really subpar passing performances this year (Detroit, Tennessee, and Buffalo last week, which hurts his overall 2018 numbers, and which is why he's below MVP level this year.
Tell you one thing. Put Brady on the market and teams will pay more for two seasons of him than for however many Stafford's got left.

You are in part comparing them when you include stats from back then in an average. Like poin pointed out, the offensive context has changed so dramatically that anything that includes stats from before a few years ago is meaningless. And not only has the league changed, Brady has changed from the QB he was for the first six years or so. Comparing his stats from this year to his career average is meaningless.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

You are in part comparing them when you include stats from back then in an average. Like poin pointed out, the offensive context has changed so dramatically that anything that includes stats from before a few years ago is meaningless. And not only has the league changed, Brady has changed from the QB he was for the first six years or so. Comparing his stats from this year to his career average is meaningless.

Since the first half of Brady's career, just like the second half, was as the QB of the greatest dynasty in NFL history, I don't think a career average is invalid. It represents a number that's a distillation of a series of performances that put him among the league leaders. The league will change again, and in 20 years Mahomes' 2018 season might seem an untouchable record or a now-mediocre season or something in between. And Brady was NOT a different QB his firs six seasons. He just kept improving during them.

 

[outofplace]

In Super Bowl 37, Brad Johnson was 34 ad Rich Gannon was 37. The other problem with Dan's maxim is, what if other teams believe it? Then you'll lose a QB in a trade and get bupkis in return. Trading a starting QB is the ultimate high-risk, low-return plan unless, like with Brady and Bledsoe, the guy's no longer the starter, but still good enough to start for somebody else.
Let's look at this season's big QB move. Washington let Cousins go, a move they'd been telegraphing for a couple years, and traded for Alex Smith, over 30. IMO Smith is better than Cousins, but others disagree. The Redskins were not notably better on offense with Smith until he got hurt. although they had a playoff shot. Minnesota hasn't won as much with Cousins, but this is attributable to a number of factors besides him, and we surely can't argue they were wrong to dump Keenum. Vikings could also make playoffs. Chiefs thought Mahomes was ready and boy were they right. Bottom line: Unless you are sure, as in, fire me if I'm wrong sure, that you have a replacement plan that is a dramatic improvement on the QB you have now, best to stand pat.
For you alternative history fans, here's one. Suppose Brady's ankle doesn't get better after the AFC title game, Bledsoe starts Super Bowl 36 and the Pats win anyway (defense and the OL won that game). What happens then to Brady, Belichick and Bledsoe.

I think Belichick had figured out that he had something special in Brady by then, which was at least part of why he stuck with Brady in the Super Bowl. Brady wasn't playing well even before he got hurt in that AFC Championship. The Patriots managed only three points with him in there, then Bledsoe led them to their only offensive touchdown. The offense looked better with Bledsoe that day. Throw in his history and I think there are plenty of coaches who would have gone with the veteran in that Super Bowl. I think Belichick had already figured out that Brady was going to be his guy for a long time and it was time to move on from Bledsoe.

 

[outofplace]

I looked this up the other day. Brady's not having as good a year as last year, but his 2018 stats are all very close to the average of his 20 year career stats. The main reason it seems as if he's fallen off is that he was the MVP last year.

You have to look at more than the statistics. He's bailing out under pressure more than he did in the past. He is just missing on throws he used to make. The final offensive play in Pittsburgh was a prime example. The Brady of even last year fires that throw right into Edelman's chest and wins the game. This year, he was avoiding the hit when he didn't have to and the ball sailed just a little too high on him.

 

[Batman]

You have to look at more than the statistics. He's bailing out under pressure more than he did in the past. He is just missing on throws he used to make. The final offensive play in Pittsburgh was a prime example. The Brady of even last year fires that throw right into Edelman's chest and wins the game. This year, he was avoiding the hit when he didn't have to and the ball sailed just a little too high on him.

There have also been some mental mistakes, most notably at the end of the first half of the Miami game that they lost. The Pats had the ball inside the 5 with about 15 seconds left, no timeouts, and Brady took a sack that allowed time to run out.
Compare that to last year in Week 2 at New Orleans. The Patriots had the ball inside the 20 with 20 seconds left and no timeouts. They completed a short pass to the 10 and the play ended with about 14 seconds on the clock. With time to spare -- they snapped the ball with three seconds left -- they got the offense off the field, the field goal team on, and kicked a field goal to end the half.

Of course, assuming they win Sunday they're still one miracle play away from being 12-4 and having homefield advantage. So maybe all of this is way overblown and even an off their game Patriots team is still better than 28 other teams in the NFL over the course of the season.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

They're still a very tough team to beat. But not quite as tough as they've been the last 3-4 years. It's not just Brady. Nothing's been QUITE as good as it was last season except the running game, their least important element. Their record is helped by two factors, six games with the AFC East and that they had a couple of their toughest games (KC, Min.) at home. One mark of a team growing old together is a wide disparity in home-road record. Pats are 7-0 at home, 3--5 on the road.

 

[outofplace]

There have also been some mental mistakes, most notably at the end of the first half of the Miami game that they lost. The Pats had the ball inside the 5 with about 15 seconds left, no timeouts, and Brady took a sack that allowed time to run out.
Compare that to last year in Week 2 at New Orleans. The Patriots had the ball inside the 20 with 20 seconds left and no timeouts. They completed a short pass to the 10 and the play ended with about 14 seconds on the clock. With time to spare -- they snapped the ball with three seconds left -- they got the offense off the field, the field goal team on, and kicked a field goal to end the half.

Of course, assuming they win Sunday they're still one miracle play away from being 12-4 and having homefield advantage. So maybe all of this is way overblown and even an off their game Patriots team is still better than 28 other teams in the NFL over the course of the season.

The Patriots are still very good, but the part about mental mistakes is important to note. Sometimes, having to fight to overcome physical disadvantages leads to mental errors. I think we've seen some of that with the Patriots this season.

That said, they are still a threat to win it all this season. They already beat the Chiefs once and really, there is no team in the AFC that doesn't have serious flaws.

 

[poindexter]

They're still a very tough team to beat. But not quite as tough as they've been the last 3-4 years. It's not just Brady. Nothing's been QUITE as good as it was last season except the running game, their least important element. Their record is helped by two factors, six games with the AFC East and that they had a couple of their toughest games (KC, Min.) at home. One mark of a team growing old together is a wide disparity in home-road record. Pats are 7-0 at home, 3--5 on the road.

That is why that Philly victory over the Texans was so important. Home field in division round, and a bye

 

[Batman]

That is why that Philly victory over the Texans was so important. Home field in division round, and a bye

Patriots in the divisional round at home, with Belichick and Brady, are 13-1. The one loss was to the Jets in 2010. The average margin of victory is 14 points.
Not counting the Super Bowl, they haven't won a road playoff game since 2006, and are 3-4 overall with Belichick and Brady. Of course, the more astonishing part of that stat is that they've only played three road playoff games since that win over the Chargers in 2006 and one of them was the following week.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Patriots in the divisional round at home, with Belichick and Brady, are 13-1. The one loss was to the Jets in 2010. The average margin of victory is 14 points.
Not counting the Super Bowl, they haven't won a road playoff game since 2006, and are 3-4 overall with Belichick and Brady. Of course, the more astonishing part of that stat is that they've only played three road playoff games since that win over the Chargers in 2006 and one of them was the following week.

THAT stat is the benefit of playing in a division where the other three teams have had no clue since 2004. Just think of all the QBs the Jets, Dolphins and Bills have run through since Brady showed up. Could be 50 of 'em.

 

[Batman]

THAT stat is the benefit of playing in a division where the other three teams have had no clue since 2004. Just think of all the QBs the Jets, Dolphins and Bills have run through since Brady showed up. Could be 50 of 'em.

No doubt. It has always blown my mind how perpetually bad the AFC East has been. I think every other AFC team other than the Jets and Bills has won its division at least once since 2001. The Dolphins snuck in the year Brady got hurt in 2008. Then you look at the NFC and you've had 12 of 16 teams make the Super Bowl and 13 make the conference championship game since 2000.
In the AFC East, the Jets, Dolphins and Bills have nine playoff appearances combined, and two since 2010.
Even when the Manning-era Colts were dominating the AFC South the Titans and Jags occasionally had good teams. Even during the Steelers' sustained run of success the Ravens and Bengals were worthy challengers at various times. It's a league where teams are supposed to cycle up and down and, other than the Rex Ryan-era Jets, none of the AFC East teams have ever cycled up. It's crazy.

 

[nafselon]

Jets won the AFC East in 2002.

 

[justgladtobehere]

Since the first half of Brady's career, just like the second half, was as the QB of the greatest dynasty in NFL history, I don't think a career average is invalid. It represents a number that's a distillation of a series of performances that put him among the league leaders. The league will change again, and in 20 years Mahomes' 2018 season might seem an untouchable record or a now-mediocre season or something in between. And Brady was NOT a different QB his firs six seasons. He just kept improving during them.

Numbers year to year don't have value when they are taken out of context. By not adjusting for the level of offense and Tom's relative talent, you are giving the same weight to 2002 as to 2007 and 2017 when finding the average and comparing it to this year. Tom's 62.1 completion % in 2002 when the league average was 59.6 is better than his 65.4 this year when the league average is 65.0. You cannot use raw numbers when the context changes so much.

 

[3_Octave_Fart]

Stafford's Year 10 comps are, among others, Drew Bledsoe and Boomer Esiason.
So yeah, those proportions seem accurate - that's what a suitor for the Lions would be getting. A guy charitably on the downside of his career.
Only Bledsoe and Esiason actually piloted teams to Super Bowls

 

[nafselon]

No doubt. It has always blown my mind how perpetually bad the AFC East has been. I think every other AFC team other than the Jets and Bills has won its division at least once since 2001. The Dolphins snuck in the year Brady got hurt in 2008. Then you look at the NFC and you've had 12 of 16 teams make the Super Bowl and 13 make the conference championship game since 2000.
In the AFC East, the Jets, Dolphins and Bills have nine playoff appearances combined, and two since 2010.
Even when the Manning-era Colts were dominating the AFC South the Titans and Jags occasionally had good teams. Even during the Steelers' sustained run of success the Ravens and Bengals were worthy challengers at various times. It's a league where teams are supposed to cycle up and down and, other than the Rex Ryan-era Jets, none of the AFC East teams have ever cycled up. It's crazy.

The Jets have had many positions where they should have "cycled up" and generally shot themselves in the ****.

They win the AFC East in 2002 and lose in the Division Final to the Raiders.

Get a wild card in 2004, beat the Chargers and lose to the Steelers in the Division Final because Doug Brien was ****.

Get another wild card in 2006, lose to the Patriots in wild card.

They are rolling in 2008 with Favre and are 8-3 with road wins against the Patriots and Titans, who were 10-0 going into their game, and then they just went in the tank, lost four out of five. Mangini gets fired, Favre's **** pics get out...

They get back-to-back wild cards in 2009 and 2010 and get to the AFC Championship game twice under Ryan but they pissed away some drafts, did stupid **** like trading for Tim Tebow and just pissed away a pretty good team that played good defense and ran the ball exceptionally well.

So for the first 10 years of that Patriots run, the Jets won the division once, made the playoffs five times and the AFCG twice. They should have been in a position to breakthrough but did enough stupid things post 2010 to be where they are.

 

[outofplace]

Could Keith Butler’s blunder cause trouble for him, or his boss?

Steelers defensive coordinator Keith Butler normally can't figure out how to stop guys who are playing. This week, he is struggling to figure out how to defend someone who won't be on the field. He made a comment this week about the difficulties presented by Bengals' tight end Tyler Eifert, who hasn't played since September and was put on season-ending injured reserve weeks ago. Steelers fans have been wondering what it would take to get Butler fired since his defense imploded last season. Maybe this will finally get it done?

 

[goalmouth]

How many here would actually watch an NFL game without betting on it?

 

[outofplace]

How many here would actually watch an NFL game without betting on it?

I know betting and fantasy football play a significant role in the support for the game, but I think there are plenty of fans like me who are just into the games.