Week 14 NFL thread

[JackReacher]

Vegas has a funny way of making people look like jackasses, Mizzou. You're no exception.

This from the person who said a -200 money line on the Saints would be a good bet.

1. It was +200.
2. I never excluded myself from that group of people. I'm admittedly a charter member.

As long as that's established...

Yeah, betting the NFL is brutal.

It's been established for going on 15 years now. I'm taking a beating on the NFL this year, so I've slowed down a bit. College football and NBA is far more profitable for me this year...so far. NFL can eat a ****.

 

[Mark2010]

San Francisco's at home, needs the win more. Seattle is coming off a short week, is probably due to drop one after winning 7-8 straight and it's a revenge game. So I'd take the 49ers this week, too.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

When I covered the NFL, I would get calls all the time from people wanting betting advice. I never gave it, because it's so unpredictable.

It's funny at the YMCA program where my boys go after school they do weekly football picks. I think it's great, but I'm stunned they allow it even though there is obviously no money on the line.

My 6-year-old won in Week 12 and when I was looking at his picks I told my wife, "If he had shown me these before he turned them in, I would have tried to explain to him why you can't pick the Bucs to beat the Lions and for the Cardinals to beat the Colts and for the Jaguars to win."

His only misses were Chiefs-Chargers and the tie between the Packers and Vikings.

 

[zagoshe]

Here is a legitimate question in AFC:

Are we going to have a 7-9 team in the playoffs? I mean it seems like someone might make it to 8-8 but I'd bet against a 9-7 to be honest:

Balt (6-6) - Minn (likely W) but then at Detroit, New England, at Cincy -- That looks a lot like 8-8 at best and more likely 7-9
Pgh (5-7) - Miami, Cincy, at GB, Cleveland -- Looks like 3-1 down stretch which is 8-8 but with all their injuries on line I could see 2-2 and that is 7-9
Miami (6-6) - At Pgh, NE, At Buffalo, Jets -- Looks like 2-2 at best - and winning at Buffalo is not a given - but 7-9 is possible
Tennessee (5-7) - at Denver, Arizona, Jacksonville, Houston - I suppose this is a good chance for 3-1 but Arizona is not bad and that would mean 2-2 and 7-9
San Diego (5-7) - NYG, at Denver, Oakland, KC -- Again, I can't see better than 2-2 which is 7-9
Jets (5-7) - Oakland, At Carolina, Cleveland, at Miami - Schedule doesn't matter, that team sucks. I see 6-10 at best.

I mean, to be honest, as much as it pains me, if the Steelers were just a little less banged up I'd say they are heavy favorites to win this derby looking at these schedules.

Meanwhile, in the NFC there could two or three teams with winning records that stay home.....

 

[93Devil]

I think we will see an 8-8 team at the No. 6 seed. Pittsburgh needed that game last week.

A few years ago, Bill Simmons and his wife picked against the spread. He used all of his NFL logic and she picked by colors or where they have visited before. She hit about 55% and he was below 50%. The spread makes picking every game each week, in a long run, a losing cause. If you know something the people who have millions on a game don't, which is doubtful, then you might have a chance. But they know so much more than the average Joe, and that is how they build these beautiful casinos.

This was discussed on the gambling thread, but the only chance you really have to win consistently is to bet a conference you know a lot about that Vegas might be ignoring, like CAA basketball or Big Sky (is that even a conference anymore?) football.

There is also a passage in the book Casino where the author explains why he will take weeks off of betting if he does not have a sure thing game, and he rarely has a sure thing game more than three times a week. Basically, don't just bet to bet.

 

[3_Octave_Fart]

I see that happen every week in the office pool.
The least knowledgeable NFL fan almost always takes the pot.
I see no point betting on NFL games - there is just too much volatility.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

I see that happen every week in the office pool.
The least knowledgeable NFL fan almost always takes the pot.
I see no point betting on NFL games - there is just too much volatility.

That's why knockout pools are so popular. It wouldn't be fun if it was easy.

My kid followed up his 11-1-1 performance by going 0-3 on Thanksgiving.

 

[Mark2010]

It's funny at the YMCA program where my boys go after school they do weekly football picks. I think it's great, but I'm stunned they allow it even though there is obviously no money on the line.

That's rather disturbing.

 

[Mark2010]

The spread makes picking every game each week, in a long run, a losing cause.

For sure. I do fairly well picking straight up, but doing the pros against the line just kills me.

And, yes, the Big Sky is an FCS conference. Playoffs get serious this week. Go Montana!!

 

[Mizzougrad96]

It's funny at the YMCA program where my boys go after school they do weekly football picks. I think it's great, but I'm stunned they allow it even though there is obviously no money on the line.

That's rather disturbing.

As long as he doesn't come home talking about a parlay, the over-under or the moneyline, I'm fine with it.

 

[outofplace]

Here is a legitimate question in AFC:

Are we going to have a 7-9 team in the playoffs? I mean it seems like someone might make it to 8-8 but I'd bet against a 9-7 to be honest:

Balt (6-6) - Minn (likely W) but then at Detroit, New England, at Cincy -- That looks a lot like 8-8 at best and more likely 7-9
Pgh (5-7) - Miami, Cincy, at GB, Cleveland -- Looks like 3-1 down stretch which is 8-8 but with all their injuries on line I could see 2-2 and that is 7-9
Miami (6-6) - At Pgh, NE, At Buffalo, Jets -- Looks like 2-2 at best - and winning at Buffalo is not a given - but 7-9 is possible
Tennessee (5-7) - at Denver, Arizona, Jacksonville, Houston - I suppose this is a good chance for 3-1 but Arizona is not bad and that would mean 2-2 and 7-9
San Diego (5-7) - NYG, at Denver, Oakland, KC -- Again, I can't see better than 2-2 which is 7-9
Jets (5-7) - Oakland, At Carolina, Cleveland, at Miami - Schedule doesn't matter, that team sucks. I see 6-10 at best.

I mean, to be honest, as much as it pains me, if the Steelers were just a little less banged up I'd say they are heavy favorites to win this derby looking at these schedules.

Meanwhile, in the NFC there could two or three teams with winning records that stay home.....

That's all fair. There have also been seasons when a crappy NFC team made it while a really good AFC team didn't.

And really, all of those contenders for the No. 6 spot are underwhelming. Every time one of them seems to get its act together, they turn in a stinker of a performance.

 

[Mark2010]

Very good chance someone will get in at 8-8. None of those teams have shown they can put together a 4-game winning streak.

 

[LongTimeListener]

That fan death in Kansas City is starting to look like the perfect definition of senseless.

http://www.kansascity.com/2013/12/03/4666462/police-man-who-died-in-arrowhead.html

30-year-old man goes to game as part of large group. He's in a green Jeep. For some reason, during the game he leaves his stadium seats and walks toward where the car is parked, only he sees a green Jeep -- unlocked -- about 10 rows in front. Crawls in, goes to sleep. (At this point you have to guess he is sleeping one off, though his dad says he wasn't drinking heavily.)

Owner and his 10-year-old son go back to car and find stranger sleeping in it. Confusion ensues. HOWEVER ... according to witness accounts, the owner of the car is not the one who got in the fight. That was a group of men in their early 20s who saw the commotion and ran over; a witness says one of the men bragged about beating the guy up.

Three of the men were arrested immediately and gave statements. The fourth was not on the scene, was arrested later and has declined to talk to police.

This is so damn stupid. Dead guy has a 7-week-old baby.

 

[nmmetsfan]

Senseless tends to come with the copious amounts of alcohol consumed by tailgaters at sporting events. It's worse than any bar I've been to. Not that I haven't partaken in some tailgating activities myself over the years, but large numbers of people get insanely drunk at these things. I'm amazed there aren't more serious incidents, to be honest.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

I kind of respect the way Tomlin is owning his ****-up in the Ravens game. I don't think he did it on purpose, but I think the NFL still needs to give him a six-figure fine or a one-game suspension to make sure it doesn't happen again.

 

[nmmetsfan]

I saw it the other way. He knew exactly what he was doing and two days later when a camera angle proved just that, he came clean when forced with no other option.

His ****-eating grin after the play tells the entire story.

 

[Gutter]

I saw it the other way. He knew exactly what he was doing and two days later when a camera angle proved just that, he came clean when forced with no other option.

His ****-eating grin after the play tells the entire story.

Yep, that camera angle from the end zone spoke volumes of his intent once he saw Jones breaking along the sideline.

For him to truly own up to the **** up, he would need to admit that he intentionally side-stepped onto the field.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

$100K fine, which I think is more than fair...

 

[heyabbott]

$100K fine, which I think is more than fair...

on a $2,500,000 salary, will he even know it's missing ?

 

[trifectarich]

It's funny at the YMCA program where my boys go after school they do weekly football picks. I think it's great, but I'm stunned they allow it even though there is obviously no money on the line.

That's rather disturbing.

As long as he doesn't come home talking about a parlay, the over-under or the moneyline, I'm fine with it.

One day a teacher says to her class, "I want you to describe what your father does for a living and spell it."
Little Sally raises her hand, the teacher acknowledges her and Sally says, "My dad is a banker. That's B-A-N-K-E-R."
The teacher says, "Very good, Sally. Who's next?"
Little Johnny gets called on, he stands and says, "My dad is an electrician. That's spelled E-L-U-K . . . E-L-L-E-K . . . E-L-E-K-T-R-I-S-H . . . "
At that point a kid in the back of the class jumps up and says, "My dad's a bookie. That's B-O-O-K-I-E and he's offering 20-1 that Johnny is never spelling 'electrician.' "