Week 14 NFL thread

[Steak Snabler]

For what seems like the 10th week in a row, the early Sunday games are relatively crappy, with two exceptions:

Indianapolis (+5.5) at Cincinnati, 1 p.m., CBS --- battle of first-place teams

Detroit (+2.5) at Philadelphia, 1 p.m., Fox --- also a battle of first-place teams

Sunday afternoon has quite a bit of intrigue, however:

Seattle (+2.5) at San Francisco, 4:25 p.m., Fox --- Seattle would just about lock up home field with a win. Kind of surprised they are an underdog at this point.

St. Louis (+6.5) at Arizona, 4:25 p.m., Fox --- If Seattle wins, Arizona could tie San Francisco for 2nd with a win

And the Sunday-nighter should be a dandy:

Carolina (+3.5) at New Orleans, 8:30 p.m., NBC --- Battle for first in NFC South

Monday night also has playoff implications:

Dallas (+2) at Chicago, 8:30 p.m., ESPN --- Cowboys are tied for first, and Bears could be playing for first place if Detroit loses on Sunday

 

[amraeder]

Indy line seems kind of high. Or am I crazy?

 

[MisterCreosote]

 

[LongTimeListener]

 

[Mizzougrad96]

I'm stunned San Fran is the favorite.

The home field usually makes a 3-point difference in the line. So, with a 2 1/2 point spread, they're implying that the Seahawks and Niners are pretty close to being equals.

If they feel that way, they're watching different games than I have been.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Guy at one of the Reno sports books once told me Niners were always one of the teams with a national betting following that distorted the spread.

 

[MileHigh]

Chance for PFM and the Broncos to hone their cold-weather playing skills. High of 27 forecast with some snow, but it's the Front Range, so that forecast can change pretty quickly.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Guy at one of the Reno sports books once told me Niners were always one of the teams with a national betting following that distorted the spread.

I'd believe it for both them and the Raiders. The drive-up action alone can affect the local books. (If you want to experience Thunderdome, no place better than the Cal-Neva book on a Sunday when the Raiders are playing.)

I also think there's a belief that the Seahawks aren't a road team. I think it's a stupid belief and worth capitalizing on at the betting window, but the belief persists.

 

[outofplace]

Indy line seems kind of high. Or am I crazy?

Couldn't it be both?

 

[amraeder]

I'm stunned San Fran is the favorite.

The home field usually makes a 3-point difference in the line. So, with a 2 1/2 point spread, they're implying that the Seahawks and Niners are pretty close to being equals.

If they feel that way, they're watching different games than I have been.

Do they adjust at all for the fact that Seattle's on a short week? Seems like that would be figured in somewhere, too.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Guy at one of the Reno sports books once told me Niners were always one of the teams with a national betting following that distorted the spread.

I'd believe it for both them and the Raiders. The drive-up action alone can affect the local books. (If you want to experience Thunderdome, no place better than the Cal-Neva book on a Sunday when the Raiders are playing.)

I also think there's a belief that the Seahawks aren't a road team. I think it's a stupid belief and worth capitalizing on at the betting window, but the belief persists.

There is nothing I've seen from the Niners this season, since the opener, that would indicate that they can hang with the Seahawks. I'd love to be wrong, but I'd be surprised if Seattle wins by less than 10.

 

[amraeder]

Indy line seems kind of high. Or am I crazy?

Couldn't it be both?

Fair point, salesman.

 

[JackReacher]

Vegas has a funny way of making people look like jackasses, Mizzou. You're no exception.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

If you asked me to predict the line, I would have said Seahawks by 1 or 2. It's on the road, it's a short week, but it's not like they're flying across the country. I think the Seahawks have overlooked some opponents this season, but that's not going to happen against the Niners.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Do they adjust at all for the fact that Seattle's on a short week? Seems like that would be figured in somewhere, too.

True. The Monday nighter/Sunday road combo always draws attention.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Vegas has a funny way of making people look like jackasses, Mizzou. You're no exception.

This from the person who said a -200 money line on the Saints would be a good bet.

 

[JackReacher]

Vegas has a funny way of making people look like jackasses, Mizzou. You're no exception.

This from the person who said a -200 money line on the Saints would be a good bet.

1. It was +200.
2. I never excluded myself from that group of people. I'm admittedly a charter member.

 

[poindexter]

If the line stinks, run to the smell. Perfect example was last week, undefeated (and playing for a possible BCS berth) Fresno St. was only a 6 point favorite at sub .500 San Jose State. Easy money, right? Not only did SJSU cover, they won outright.

If it looks like Seattle is a sure thing, then go with SF.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Vegas has a funny way of making people look like jackasses, Mizzou. You're no exception.

This from the person who said a -200 money line on the Saints would be a good bet.

1. It was +200.
2. I never excluded myself from that group of people. I'm admittedly a charter member.

As long as that's established...

Yeah, betting the NFL is brutal.

 

[Cosmo]

Indy has been a steaming pile of **** on the road of late. Not surprised at all about that line.