Most people have a fixed amount of discretionary spending for dining out and entertainment. If they spend it on gameday, they won’t spend it the other six days of the week. So it’s not new money, but shifted money, being spent.
Stadiums Shift Spending Patterns, Don’t Boost Local Economies
The big hole in that premise is that discretionary spending is fixed or static. It gets proven time and again that it isn't. Entertainment options constantly change people's spending habits.
Favorite band announces a concert date? Oh ****, where I can find some money to go!
My wife and my daughter went to go see "Wicked" the first weekend it came out. They aren't going to see anything else in its place.
A small example of my own. As I walked out of the NBA arena I was in last night, I remarked that while I wouldn't get season tickets, I might consider a small sample-size package. Not an option I would consider for anything but sports.
A bigger example is when Local Team hits the jackpot. Take Indiana football, which can be applied to a pro sports equivalent. They went from 30K in the stadium, at best, to legitimate sellouts in a very short span. In addition, costs for ancillary, but necessary things like parking shot through the stratosphere. Expensive trips to the playoffs beckon for those who are so inclined and can pull it off.
Does anyone really think fans are line-iteming their other entertainment desires to follow their passion? Some will, but many will just adjust their "discretionary" spending upward and deal with the consequences later.
Add to that as stadia go, the only other things that can have as wide of an economic impact at the scale of a sporting event are festivals and concerts ... and they don't occur as often. A baseball team that draws 20K for 81 dates? I can't think of any other entertainment option that can match that.
There's all kinds of economic hoodoo both good and bad as it relates to stadia and whether the public should pay for them, but I just find the notion they're economically neutral to just fly in the face of what we can see with our own eyes.