NCAA Week 8

[exmediahack]

You in at 47.5?

Got 50. I was thrilled. And 24 for first half.

But I needed the Eagles and 3.

This was such a boondoggle that I think I may shut it down for the season and look at what worked and what definitely didn’t.

I went on this tear last season. 34-11 over 7 weeks — 47-18 after the bowls were done. Mostly unders and underdogs.

It’s been my own degen version of behind the music.

I thought last year that I could actually do this as a small side hustle.

Some of the issues I see. Too many small favorites. Too many conferences that I’m not an expert on. 0-5 on Michigan State games, playing or fading.

The part that really stung was I booked them all Thursday for the weekend. I’ve been unable to bet them back as I’ve been outside of a legal state.

With live betting, for example, I would have bet the Saints back after watching Mitch’s first series.

 

[exmediahack]

@exmediahack may end up sneaking the under.

Nope. Parlayed Eagles AND under. Planned to take the win and roll it into Pats and OVER tomorrow.

 

[exmediahack]

The ugly truth.

Home dog: (1 to 7: 0-2). (7.5-14: 1-2). (14.5+ 0-1)
Home favorite. (1 to 7: 3-4-2 ). (7.5-14: 3-2 ). 14.5+ 0-0.
Neutral Site: 1-1. 1 favorite, 1 dog.
Road dog: (1 to 7: 0-2). (7.5-14: 1-2). 14.5+ 1-2
Road favorite. (1 to 7: 1-3). (7.5-14: 0-0). 14.5+ 0-1

Overs 1-2
Unders 8-4
Favorites: 7-10
Dogs: 4-12

Takeaways. Good/great favorites beat the crap out of mediocre underdogs. Short ROAD favorites are killing me as well. I’m still good at unders.

 

[Batman]

Got 50. I was thrilled. And 24 for first half.

But I needed the Eagles and 3.

This was such a boondoggle that I think I may shut it down for the season and look at what worked and what definitely didn’t.

I went on this tear last season. 34-11 over 7 weeks — 47-18 after the bowls were done. Mostly unders and underdogs.

It’s been my own degen version of behind the music.

I thought last year that I could actually do this as a small side hustle.

Some of the issues I see. Too many small favorites. Too many conferences that I’m not an expert on. 0-5 on Michigan State games, playing or fading.

The part that really stung was I booked them all Thursday for the weekend. I’ve been unable to bet them back as I’ve been outside of a legal state.

With live betting, for example, I would have bet the Saints back after watching Mitch’s first series.

I feel ya. I was right where you were after a bad run at the end of basketball season in February and March. I hit enough winners to keep my head above water, but not enough to move forward so I shut it down after the Sweet 16. The slump carried over into football season, and a couple of weeks ago my bankroll was dangerously close to going bust. Pats-Redskins saved my season, I broke even last week, and then this weekend I finally was profitable.
Confidence is big in this game. If yours is shaken, either shut it down or find some slumpbusters and scale back until you get your feet back under you. This football season, college especially, has been tough. Lots of teams seem to be right around .500 ATS.

 

[Neutral Corner]

 

[jlee]

This, however, is precisely the sort of thing that will endear him to Clay Trumpist and the rest of his SEC klan.

Damn, if you’d referred to the confederacy, I’d’ve had bingo.