NCAA Week 11

[Chef2]

This is the big one.
All times EST.
Important numbers from vegasinsider.com

• Maryland (+42)@ 3.Ohio State—12 p.m., FOX (64)
• 11.Baylor @ TCU (+1)—12 p.m., FS1 (52.5)
• 5.Penn State (-7) @ 13.Minnesota— 12 p.m., ABC (48)
• Vanderbilt @ 10.Florida (-25) — 12 p.m., ESPN (47)
• East Carolina @23. SMU (-23.5)—12 p.m., ESPNU (68)
• 20.Kansas State @ Texas (-5.5)—3:30 p.m., ESPN (58.5)
• 1.LSU @ 2.Alabama (-6.5)—3:30 p.m., CBS (65)
• UConn @ 17.Cincinnati (-34.5) —3:30 p.m., CBSSN (58)
• 18.Iowa @ 16.Wisconsin (-8.5)—4 p.m., FOX (38)
• Missouri @ 6.Georgia (-17)—7 p.m., ESPN (48.5)
• 4.Clemson (-30.5)@ NC State—7:30 p.m., ABC (54)
• 15.Notre Dame (-7) @ Duke—7:30 p.m., ACCN (52)
• Iowa State @ 9.Oklahoma (-13)—8 p.m., FOX (67.5)
• Wyoming @ 21.Boise State (-13)—10:15 p.m., ESPN (46.5)
• Nevada @ 24.San Diego State (-17)—10:30 p.m., ESPN2 (40)

 

[Chef2]

At first glance....

East Carolina (+23.5) and over 68.
Oklahoma (-13)
Baylor (-1)
LSU @ Alabama OVER 65

 

[Chef2]

Question mark avatar courtesy @swingline.
Thanks a lot, you Jayhawk bastards.

 

[mpcincal]

Don't know how long it will last, but it's nice to see San Diego State in the Top 25 games list. That said, I don't really feel the Aztecs are as good as their record suggests; the defense is outstanding, but their offense really struggles at times. Of course, Nevada is 5-4, but their four losses have been pretty bad ones (77-6 to Oregon and 54-3 to Hawaii among them).

 

[playthrough]

I got Penn State -6.5. Minny's perfect record has no big pelts on it. Time's up.

Outside the top 25, I can't believe Purdue isn't favored at Northwestern (they're around +1 or 2). Northwestern is horrible.

 

[Batman]

I got Penn State -6.5. Minny's perfect record has no big pelts on it. Time's up.

Outside the top 25, I can't believe Purdue isn't favored at Northwestern (they're around +1 or 2). Northwestern is horrible.

Purdue is starting its third-string quarterback, a former walk-on, for the rest of the season.
Northwestern still sucks, though. Figured Purdue would be a decent favorite, maybe as much as five or six points.

 

[Batman]

Early picks, or at least games that caught my eye:

Ohio State -43 vs. Maryland -- Like a large but well-proportioned woman, that's a ton but not so much it's a total turnoff.

Illinois +14 1/2 @ Michigan State -- Illinois is kind of frisky and Michigan State feels like that team people just write down when they get to No. 25 on their ballots because they can't think of anyone else. Going back to last season, Michigan State has not scored more than 24 points in its last nine games played after Oct. 1, and has a total of 17 in its last three games this year. If Illinois can score two touchdowns, this one covers. In fact, Illinois +340 might be a worthwhile money line bet.

Penn State -6 1/2 @ Minnesota -- Like Playthrough said, this feels like the spot where Minnesota gets exposed against a legitimately good team. Only thing that scares me is that they're at home and this is the biggest game they've played in years. Might be a case where they rise up and keep it close.

Purdue Pick @ Northwestern -- See my post above. Northwestern is ass. Purdue is only the taint.

UTSA +4 1/2 @ Old Dominion -- Another dumpster diving special. UTSA is nothing special, but Old Dominion is even less special. It's 1-8, hasn't scored more than 17 points since winning its opener, and is basically Conference USA's answer to Rutgers.
Of course, the last time I bet against Old Dominion they beat Virginia Tech. So what do I know?

Ole Miss -31 vs. New Mexico State -- Ole Miss can run the ball when it wants to. Which it does a lot, because it can't pass. It'll run wild against a bad New Mexico State team.

San Jose State +7 @ Hawaii -- @Spartan Squad has turned me on to San Jose State like a hipster touting his favorite indy band. Not a bad team, and this is a game they should probably win outright. Catching the points is just a bonus. No TV on this one, so refreshing my phone's web browser every 60 seconds at 1 a.m. might be a fun way to cap the night. Also, much like the other Sparty game, this one might be a good place to plunk down a few bucks on a money line bet. San Jose State is +230.

 

[HappyCurmudgeon]

It's early. I feel like Clemson (+30.5) is free money. With all the big games happening around the Tigers I can see them beating NC State 55-7 or something just to remind people who the champs are.

 

[BitterYoungMatador2]

Penn State vs. Minnesota is the exposure bowl. Minnesota hasn't played anyone but Penn State didn't exactly look impressive in its wins against Iowa and Michigan.

 

[DanOregon]

Committee did a good job of sticking the G5 schools low enough where they can't cause any problems (but bunching them so closely together is a crock considering their resumes) - granted it's the first poll and meaningless, but the first poll typically guides the narrative.

Ohio State leads CFP top four of LSU, Bama, PSU

 

[Michael_ Gee]

One of those four will not be in the top four next week unless NC State beats Clemson.

 

[Chef2]

One of those four will not be in the top four next week unless NC State beats Clemson.

I think LSU beats Alabama.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Could be, but that's an "I'll believe it when I see it" prediction for me.

 

[exmediahack]

Here's what we've got.

Pac-12 was 0-3 for me. Those "short favorites" killed me again. USC, Washington. Need to stay off those.

Purdue-Northwestern Under 38
Iowa-Wisconsin Under 38
Minnesota +7 vs. Penn State
Stanford -3.5 at Colorado
Illinois +14 at Michigan State
Maryland +44 at Ohio State
Washington -10 at Oregon State
Wyoming-Boise St U48.5

 

[Neutral Corner]

As you would imagine, lots of chatter here about 'Bama - LSU. I think LSU has a legit shot, although UA does not lose often at home. The real fun is adding in a Trump visit. Traffic is already insane for a Tide home game vs an SEC opponent, and this is the biggest game on the schedule, so that ramps things up a notch. Now throw in a presidential motorcade and good lord it's going to be a mess.


Lots of chatter about alternate routes for UAB fans headed down for the game at Southern Miss, because no one wants to get caught in that traffic insanity.

 

[playthrough]

Here's what we've got.

Pac-12 was 0-3 for me. Those "short favorites" killed me again. USC, Washington. Need to stay off those.

Purdue-Northwestern Under 38
Iowa-Wisconsin Under 38
Minnesota +7 vs. Penn State
Stanford -3.5 at Colorado
Illinois +14 at Michigan State
Maryland +44 at Ohio State
Washington -10 at Oregon State
Wyoming-Boise St U48.5

I think you're right on the Sparty game. For starters, MSU would have to score 15 points to cover 14 and I don't think that's guaranteed. I'm not sure Purdue-NW, Iowa-Wis and Ill-MSU will have 100 points combined.

 

[GilGarrido]

It won't be just the traffic - the security to get into the game will almost certainly be a mess too. At the national championship game Trump attended two years ago, it took us over an hour to go through security, which was not fun since it was below 40 and raining and windy. (btw, semi-political threadjack: From comments I've seen here, I gather that it may have sounded differently on TV, but when Trump was announced, there were initially a lot of very audible boos before they were drowned out by applause. Given where we were, I assumed the boos were a reaction to the security rather than a political statement.)

 

[Neutral Corner]

UA is already trying to get in front of the president being embarrassed.

 

[heyabbott]

For those going to the game in a nonprofessional capacity. Tough **** and **** you.

 

[swingline]

I'd take Georgia and give the points. Mizzou is getting dumptrucked on the way to a 6-6 finish.