I love bracketology stuff and have generally done a good job with who I'm interested in and where they might fall in terms of seeds. Man, Miami is such a tough case for the committee. They honestly do not have an at-large resume at all. That seems almost impossible being 30-0, but man, they don't. The NET and KPI numbers have them on the fringe, the rest suck. They have one Q1-2 game, and it was Q2. They are 16-0 against Q4. They have three non-DI games. Their overall SOS is 282 and their OOC SOS is 360. It is just a really awful resume. The only thing that would give them any edge is the 13-0 in true road games and 14-0 away from home.
But it would be a terrible, terrible look by the NCAA to not put a one-loss team in the tourney that went undefeated during the regular season. It just doesn't happen, even with terrible schedules. There already is a power bias, and the people just don't want a .500 SEC team in over that. They want to see what they can do. I would say you play the schedule you have, but the MAC actually isn't the worst thing out there -- four teams in the top 150, essentially seven in the top 200. So that non-conference must have been absolute garbage, and that is on them.
Anyway, the NCAA is surely going to hope like heck Miami wins their tournament. I can't imagine them not getting in, but it really could be Dayton. They aren't getting a straight at-large as a 12 and I can't see them moving up to a 10 with a loss.