NCAA Week 13

[Chef2]

EST
vegasinsider.com

• No. 1 LSU (-44) (70.5) vs. Arkansas | 7 p.m. Saturday | ESPN
• No. 2 Ohio State (-18) (59.5) vs. No. 9 Penn State | 12 p.m. Saturday | FOX
• No. 4 Georgia (-13.5) (47) vs. No. 24 Texas A&M | 3:30 p.m. Saturday | CBS
• No. 5 Alabama vs. Western Carolina | 12 p.m. Saturday | ESPN
• No. 6 Oregon (-14.5) (54.5) at Arizona State | 7:30 p.m. Saturday | ABC
• No. 7 Utah (-21) (59) at Arizona | 10 p.m. Saturday | FS1
• No. 8 Oklahoma (-17.5) (63) vs. TCU | 8 p.m. Saturday | FOX
• No. 11 Minnesota (-11) (38) at Northwestern | 12 p.m. Saturday | ABC
• No. 12 Michigan (-8) at Indiana (51.5) | 3:30 p.m. Saturday | ESPN
• No. 13 Baylor vs. Texas (-4) (59) | 3:30 p.m. | FS1
• No. 14 Wisconsin (-22.5) (47.5) vs. Purdue | 4 p.m. | FOX
• No. 15 Notre Dame (-19) (62.6) vs. Boston College | 2:30 p.m. Saturday | NBC
• No. 16 Auburn vs. Samford | 12 p.m. Saturday | SEC Network
• No. 17 Cincinnati (-10) (46.5) vs. Temple | 7 p.m. Saturday | ESPN2
• No. 18 Memphis (-14.5) (59.5) at South Florida | 4 p.m. | ESPNU
• No. 19 Iowa (-12.5) (48) vs. Illinois | 12 p.m. Saturday | Big Ten Network
• No. 20 Boise State (-9) (53.5) at Utah State | 10:30 p.m. Saturday | CBSSN
• No. 21 SMU (+3) (66.5) at Navy | 3:30 p.m. Saturday | CBSSN
• No. 22 Oklahoma State (-8) (58.5) at West Virginia | 12 p.m. Saturday | ESPN2
• No. 23 Appalachian State vs. Texas State | 2:30 p.m. Saturday | ESPN+
• No. 25 Virginia Tech (-3) (47.5)vs. Pitt | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN2

Other games
UCLA @ USC (-13) (64.5) 3:30 ABC
Kansas @ Iowa State (-22.5) (58) 11:00 ???
Air Force @ New Mexico (+21.5) (56.5) 2:00 ESPN3
Duke (+6.5) (54.5) @ Wake Forest 7:30 ACC
Kansas State (-1) (57) @ Texas Tech: 6:00 FS1
Houston @ Tulsa (-4) (59.5) 7:30 ESPNU
Syracuse @ Louisville (-8.5) (63.5) 4:00 ACC
Nebraska (-5) @ Maryland (64) 3:30 BTN
Cal @ Stanford (-21) (41) 4:00 PAC12
Washington (-14) (55) @ Colorado 10:00 ESPN

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Might give Indiana a flutter. They're not that bad, and Michigan on the road under Harbaugh has not been much.

 

[Chef2]

LSU has proven it can score points, but also that it can give up a bunch too.
Gave up 37 points and over 600 yards to Ole Miss the other night.
Someone talk me off the ledge on taking Arkansas (+44).

 

[Michael_ Gee]

I just can't bring myself to bet on truly bad teams no matter how many points they get. Too nerve-wracking watching the spread lead evaporate towards danger.

 

[BitterYoungMatador2]

18 seems awfully high for OSU-PSU. I hate PSU and think that number's high.

 

[Chef2]

18 seems awfully high for OSU-PSU. I hate PSU and think that number's high.

I thought that as well.

 

[DanOregon]

Checked the Sagarin ratings out of habit. He's got Bama at three and LSU at four if you can believe it.

 

[HappyCurmudgeon]

LSU has proven it can score points, but also that it can give up a bunch too.
Gave up 37 points and over 600 yards to Ole Miss the other night.
Someone talk me off the ledge on taking Arkansas (+44).

I don't see it. Ole Miss has a pretty dynamic young quarterback. Arkansas has nothing dynamic to speak of on offense.

65-17 LSU.

 

[HappyCurmudgeon]

Checked the Sagarin ratings out of habit. He's got Bama at three and LSU at four if you can believe it.

Bama deserves a lot of credit for that Southern Miss win.

 

[playthrough]

Might give Indiana a flutter. They're not that bad, and Michigan on the road under Harbaugh has not been much.

And it's the ultimate look-ahead spot for Michigan. But 8 is a funny number. Give me 10 and I'm on the Hoosiers all day.

Someone tell me why Tennessee opened +4 at Mizzou and is now +5. Two teams going in completely opposite directions.

 

[playthrough]

LSU has proven it can score points, but also that it can give up a bunch too.
Gave up 37 points and over 600 yards to Ole Miss the other night.
Someone talk me off the ledge on taking Arkansas (+44).

I won't. Instead I'd wait until kickoff and see if it ticks up a bit more.

 

[Batman]

It's a weird week. The SEC's annual mid-November vacation week means a lot of SEC vs. FCS games that aren't on the board yet. And then a lot of the games that look good have bad lines. So here's the short list of Games I Love:

• Minnesota -12 1/2 @ Northwestern - This line was probably 20 points if they'd played last week. Minnesota is still two touchdowns better than a really bad Northwestern team.
• Nebraska -5 1/2 @ Maryland - Nebraska is scary to bet on because you never know which team will show up. I feel pretty confident that we know which Maryland team is showing up, and it's bad enough to lose to Nebraska by a touchdown.
• BYU -40 1/2 @UMass - Betting more against UMass than on BYU, which is finishing up a three-game tour of the dregs of college football (Libert, Idaho State and UMass)
• Tennessee +4 @ Missouri - Tennessee has done a 180 with its season and played pretty well the last six weeks. Its only losses since the start of October have been fairly competitive ones to Georgia and Alabama. Missouri, meanwhile, has scored one touchdown in its last three games. I think Tennessee can (and probably should) win this game outright.

Games I kinda like, but will probably stay away from:
• LSU -45 vs. Arkansas - I'll probably lay off this game because of the line. Too many points to lay with a so-so defense, but it's bad karma for me to bet against LSU. Did the latter once this season and regretted it. I'd rather they beat them by 50 and I just get to enjoy the visceral thrill of it. If I did bet it, I'd take LSU.
• San Jose State -4 1/2 @ UNLV - Time to get back on the Spartan train? Maybe. UNLV isn't that good and it's not a huge line.
• Penn State +18 @ Ohio State - Ridiculous line for a game with these kinds of stakes, but I thought the same thing about OSU-Wisconsin and we all saw how that turned out. I'm approaching this one like a snarling Rottweiler behind a 2-foot tall fence.
• Alabama (NL) vs. Western Carolina - This line will probably be in the 50s, and Alabama never covers those. But even without Tua it's still a Top 10 team against a 3-8 FCS team. So the only question is will Alabama get comfortably over the line before calling off the dogs? Or will they shut it down up 42-0 at halftime?
• Texas A&M +14 @ Georgia - Texas A&M is an obvious afterthought in the SEC, but they've quietly put together a decent seven-win season and stayed within shouting distance of the good teams on their schedule. Fourteen points might not be enough to get me to bite, but if it creeps up a hair it could be enticing.

 

[melock]

I thought that as well.

Penn State's defense has been brutal the past two weeks. Can't cover. Can't get to the quarterback. Doesn't sound like a good combination against Ohio State.

 

[HappyCurmudgeon]

• Texas A&M +14 @ Georgia - Texas A&M is an obvious afterthought in the SEC, but they've quietly put together a decent seven-win season.

I'm almost positive the Aggies haven't beaten a team that's .500 or better this season.

 

[DanOregon]

I could see Ohio State winning by 30 against PSU - which is a solid team, but doesn't have enough playmakers on either side of the ball to match up to the Buckeyes.

 

[Cosmo]

I'm almost positive the Aggies haven't beaten a team that's .500 or better this season.

Correct, they've beaten five teams with four wins and Texas State, which has three wins.

 

[GilGarrido]

I'm almost positive the Aggies haven't beaten a team that's .500 or better this season.

And their three losses are to teams ranked 1, 1, and 8 at the time (Clemson, Alabama, and Auburn), with 4 (Georgia) and 1 (LSU) remaining. That's got to be some sort of record, as well as an argument that maybe scheduling Clemson isn't a great idea for an SEC West team. How many schools could expect to win more than one of those games? The losses weren't blowouts either (14, 19, and 8, respectively), though beating Arkansas by only 4 and Ole Miss by only 7 isn't impressive. Maybe they play up to or down to the level of their competition.

 

[Batman]

And their three losses are to teams ranked 1, 1, and 8 at the time (Clemson, Alabama, and Auburn), with 4 (Georgia) and 1 (LSU) remaining. That's got to be some sort of record, as well as an argument that maybe scheduling Clemson isn't a great idea for an SEC West team. How many schools could expect to win more than one of those games? The losses weren't blowouts either (14, 19, and 8, respectively), though beating Arkansas by only 4 and Ole Miss by only 7 isn't impressive. Maybe they play up to or down to the level of their competition.

Wasn't this the first time in something like 20 years that a team played the Nos. 1 and 2 teams in the preseason AP poll?
And, coincidentally, two teams have to do it in the same year.

BTW, LSU has Clemson on the schedule down the road a bit, in 2025 and 2026.

 

[HappyCurmudgeon]

And their three losses are to teams ranked 1, 1, and 8 at the time (Clemson, Alabama, and Auburn), with 4 (Georgia) and 1 (LSU) remaining. That's got to be some sort of record, as well as an argument that maybe scheduling Clemson isn't a great idea for an SEC West team. How many schools could expect to win more than one of those games? The losses weren't blowouts either (14, 19, and 8, respectively), though beating Arkansas by only 4 and Ole Miss by only 7 isn't impressive. Maybe they play up to or down to the level of their competition.

None of the games A&M lost they actually had a chance to win late....maybe Auburn if they got an onside kick but they were down by 18 in the fourth quarter against them. They were down by 21 in second half against Clemson and scored a touchdown with six seconds left in the game. And they were down by 27 in the fourth quarter to Alabama.

I just don't think they are very good and I expect the Aggie faithful thought they would get more for $75 million guaranteed to a head coach. Granted if they finish 7-5 that's five losses to teams ranked, four of them in the top 6 and one in the top 15.

But to be considered a good team you have to win at least one of those.

 

[Neutral Corner]