Reasonable expectations in college football

[Jake_Taylor]

Spinning off of the coaches firing/hiring thread, I thought it might be interesting to discuss what certain college football programs should be able to expect in terms of success. Pitt was discussed in the other thread and I tend to agree that 7-9 wins on average with the occasional 10-win season and maybe the occasional five or six-win season is reasonable these days.

What about other programs that may or may not be making changes? Minnesota keeps changing coaches, but can the Gophers really expect to get more than what they had in the Mason era? Miami, there I can see getting rid of a guy that was only winning seven or eight a year. Whoever takes over at Florida should be in the national championship picture at least every few years or so.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Programs that believe they should win 10 games every season

Nebraska
Texas
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
USC
Florida
LSU
Alabama
Auburn
Tennessee
Notre Dame
Florida State
Miami

That's 15 teams and 14 of them have won titles in the last 25 years.

 

[playthrough]

Some Georgia fans still think they should be in that group, but their time ended when Florida became a powerhouse.

 

[Jake_Taylor]

Programs that believe they should win 10 games every season

Nebraska
Texas
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State
USC
Florida
LSU
Alabama
Auburn
Tennessee
Notre Dame
Florida State
Miami

That's 15 teams and 14 of them have won titles in the last 25 years.

I'd say that's pretty reasonable for most of the list. I'm not sure about Notre Dame anymore. There are places like Pitt and Texas A&M that have a decent history, but fans are crazy if they think they are getting back to the glory days any time soon.

 

[WriteTank]

I follow Notre Dame, and I'm amazed by any victory they can get. I guess you could call it "Charlie Weis Syndrome."

 

[Mizzougrad96]

The only problem with the list is it's not realistic for five teams from the same conference to win 10 every season.

 

[Jake_Taylor]

The only problem with the list is it's not realistic for five teams from the same conference to win 10 every season.

True, it's not going to happen. But I don't think fans and decision makers at those schools are crazy for thinking it should happen for them. What I don't get is a place like Minnesota, Georgia Tech, Pitt, etc going to bowls almost every year, but expecting to go to bigger bowls every year.

Two programs I follow pretty closely are Kansas and Virginia. As a Kansas alum I'd be perfectly content with an average of 6-8 wins a year and accepting of the occasional four or five win season and thrilled with the occasional 10-plus year.

At Virginia you have to deal overcome some academic restrictions, though I think those are overstated by people that want to make excuses, and you have to reclaim a lot of ground in-state recruiting, but that program ought to be able to win eight or nine games a year, occasionally going 6-6 and sometimes slipping into a fairly major bowl.

Schools like Vandy, Baylor, Indiana, Washington State should cherish every bowl game because you can't count on making many.

 

[ucacm]

Michigan has one national championship, which was shared, in the past sixty years. That's pretty amazing.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

If you're not one of those 15 schools, I think the best you can hope for is to consistently win 8-9 games a year and occasionally break through and contend for a BCS bowl.

 

[bydesign77]

@playthrough I don't think I've met a UGA fan that didn't expect to be a conference title contender. They think one national championship win 30 years ago means they should buy top ranked every year. And when they lose the whining is unbelievable.

So it isn't some, I think it is most.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

I'd say the second tier is

Oregon
Wisconsin
Texas A&M
TCU
Iowa
Arkansas
Boise State
Colorado
UCLA
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
Georgia
Utah
Pittsburgh
Boston College
South Carolina
Clemson

With these schools if they have a great season, they can contend for a BCS bowl, but in most seasons 8-9 wins is considered acceptable/realistic. It's also not unheard of for one to have a losing season.

 

[albert77]

The college closest to me is Southern Miss, and their minimum expectations are fairly lofty for a so-called mid-major. In Conference USA, they should win at least 8 games every year and get to some kind of a bowl game (they're currently at 13 straight and counting). They ought to be playing in the CUSA championship game at least every other year, and every 4-5 years they should spike a 10-11 win season where they at least get into the conversation about BCS-busters. Given their history, I'd say those are not necessarily unrealistic expectations.

 

[ucacm]

LSU had a losing record in the 1990s. LSU had one SEC co-championship in the 1980s, 1 SEC championship in the 1980s, 1 SEC championship in the 1970s, and 1 SEC co-championship in the 1960s. Since 2001, they have 2 national championships and 3 SEC championships.

 

[Ace]

What does "reasonable" have to do with college football?

 

[dooley_womack1]

I'd say the second tier is

Oregon
Wisconsin
Texas A&M
TCU
Iowa
Arkansas
Boise State
Colorado
UCLA
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
Georgia
Utah
Pittsburgh
Boston College
South Carolina
Clemson

With these schools if they have a great season, they can contend for a BCS bowl, but in most seasons 8-9 wins is considered acceptable/realistic. It's also not unheard of for one to have a losing season.

Missouri belongs to this tier, and Colorado and UCLA should be nowhere near it.

 

[User 11148]

I always think about it with respect to how many wins that are virtual locks before the season even begins. Yes, there's the occasional App State-Michigan or James Madison-VT blip (not ignoring others, but those are the most recent that come to mind), but by and large the "better" schools in your BCS leagues start with three wins in the bag. So if you play a nine-game "real" season, eight wins means you played a bit better than .500 ball. That's not all that impressive. It's not embarassing, don't get me wrong, but that's not the level of performance your BCS-level coaches get paid to deliver.

 

[Moderator1]

VT has won 10-plus games more consecutive years than anyone, I believe. In the Orange Bowl for the third time in four years and a BCS bowl for the fifth time since 1999.

 

[Jake_Taylor]

Missouri really should be able to have consistent success being the only major program in a big state, but for some reason it didn't for a long time until Pinkel got settled in there. Moddy, I'd say VT fans should be able to expect 10 wins most years and ACC championships at least every few years, but should they be happy with that level or expect to take the next step?

 

[Moderator1]

Well, they want to take the next step (and will forever wonder how things would have looked had it not jacked around its schedule this year = but it did so there). But the premise here is teams that expect to win 10 games every year. VT has done that and expects to do that and is regularly a BCS bowl contender.

Sure, people will say, but the ACC ain't the SEC or Big Ten (or probably even the Pac-10). All true. But 11 other teams in the ACC haven't achieved that level since the league expanded. VT has been in the league seven years and won the championship four times.

 

[derwood]

VT has won 10-plus games more consecutive years than anyone, I believe. In the Orange Bowl for the third time in four years and a BCS bowl for the fifth time since 1999.

Seven conference titles since 1995. I'd put them in top tier.