NFL Week 17 Thread: Kyle Orton's Chance of a Lifetime?

[Michael_ Gee]

Eagles-Cowboys will dominate 99.9 percent of NFL pregame blah this week. Why isn't America gripped by the incandescent drama of the fight for the AFC sixth seed?

 

[Uncle Frosty]

Eagles-Cowboys will dominate 99.9 percent of NFL pregame blah this week. Why isn't America gripped by the incandescent drama of the fight for the AFC sixth seed?

Murrica's Team!!!

 

[Evil ... Thy name is Orville Redenbacher!!]

Eagles-Cowboys will dominate 99.9 percent of NFL pregame blah this week. Why isn't America gripped by the incandescent drama of the fight for the AFC sixth seed?

According to one account of the AFC playoff race, based on the point spreads and percentage of wins, it's the Dolphins spot to lose. The Fins have a 66 percent chance of making the playoffs.
The Steelers? Two percent.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Bears-Packers will be an interesting one too, I think it will be a close game if Rodgers plays or not.

Words I don't utter too often... Go Rams!

 

[Steak Snabler]

I almost wish the Saints would go ahead and lose to the Bucs at home and put me out of my misery. It's not like they're going to win a road game in the playoffs anyway, let alone three straight.

I've been a fan all my life, but this team is no fun to watch. They totally lack toughness, on every level.

 

[MileHigh]

Interesting that for that sixth spot in the AFC, four teams are alive and none of them controls their destiny. They mostly need to win and have other things happen.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Eagles-Cowboys will dominate 99.9 percent of NFL pregame blah this week. Why isn't America gripped by the incandescent drama of the fight for the AFC sixth seed?

According to one account of the AFC playoff race, based on the point spreads and percentage of wins, it's the Dolphins spot to lose. The Fins have a 66 percent chance of making the playoffs.
The Steelers? Two percent.

According to NFL.com, none of those teams have a win-and-in path.

So if all three win -- San Diego, Miami, Baltimore -- who gets in?

 

[Mizzougrad96]

I think Baltimore has to lose for the Chargers to get in...

 

[Steak Snabler]

Eagles-Cowboys will dominate 99.9 percent of NFL pregame blah this week. Why isn't America gripped by the incandescent drama of the fight for the AFC sixth seed?

According to one account of the AFC playoff race, based on the point spreads and percentage of wins, it's the Dolphins spot to lose. The Fins have a 66 percent chance of making the playoffs.
The Steelers? Two percent.

According to NFL.com, none of those teams have a win-and-in path.

So if all three win -- San Diego, Miami, Baltimore -- who gets in?

Dolphins based on conference record. Miami would be 8-4, Baltimore 7-5, San Diego 6-6.

 

[LongTimeListener]

OK yeah now I see that. BUT if Miami wins and Baltimore wins and San Diego loses, Baltimore gets in.

And if all three lose and Pittsburgh wins, I guess Mike Tomlin and the defense get another chance to try to kill somebody.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

I almost wish the Saints would go ahead and lose to the Bucs at home and put me out of my misery. It's not like they're going to win a road game in the playoffs anyway, let alone three straight.

I've been a fan all my life, but this team is no fun to watch. They totally lack toughness, on every level.

I've always been stumped by that. Payton is a great coach and Brees is, by most counts a gritty, tough player and I don't understand why they are such a different team on the road.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

It has to be 100 percent mental, because they suck on the road in other domes, too.

 

[Evil ... Thy name is Orville Redenbacher!!]

http://thebiglead.com/2013/12/23/afc-playoffs-miami-has-66-chance-of-being-last-wildcard-based-on-point-spreads/

Add the win percentages based on point spread, and here is what we get for the final wildcard spot:

Miami – 66.0%
San Diego – 16.7%
Baltimore – 14.6%
Pittsburgh – 2.7%
That may seem high, but it is basically because, the way the tiebreakers work out, and the matchups, Miami is highly likely to make it if they win against the Jets at home. For those of you that remember chemistry class, the rate limiting step in Miami’s playoff chase is the Dolphins getting the win. They are listed as a 6.5 point favorite. They need a San Diego win or a Baltimore loss. Because San Diego is seen as a heavy favorite against the Chiefs, who are likely to rest starters after getting locked into the 5 seed, and because Baltimore is an underdog, Miami is in good shape.

However, I will note that these results are not entirely independent. San Diego plays in the late afternoon time slot, and the Baltimore and Miami results should be known about the time they kick off. San Diego will likely prepare to go all out no matter what (no point in resting starters even if eliminated), but there could be a psychological impact that lowers San Diego’s chances slightly, if they know they cannot advance. If Baltimore and Miami both win early, then the San Diego result very much matters for both of them.

I tend to personally like the Jets and those points with the pressure on Miami and the offense struggling on Sunday, but if you buy the Vegas odds, Miami is a prohibitive favorite, and it is actually San Diego, and not Baltimore, who is slightly more likely to get in.

As stated earlier; no team controls its own destiny. But Based on this criteria the Dolphins have the best chance.
I think it'll be interesting to see how this theory plays out Sunday.

 

[LongTimeListener]

It has to be 100 percent mental, because they suck on the road in other domes, too.

It is so stark I have begun to wonder if they have some Belichick-style home "equipment" tricks.

 

[Evil ... Thy name is Orville Redenbacher!!]

I think Baltimore has to lose for the Chargers to get in...

And Baltimore has a Cincy team trying to get a first-round bye, if the Patriots lose to the Bills.
The Chargers get a KC team locked in. Does Reid rest the starters?
Fins get the Jets, which I think is a game they could easily lose. But anyway ...

I think the Chargers have the best shot at a win Sunday. And still not make the playoffs.

 

[LongTimeListener]

In non-playoff-related action ... Raiders remain bat**** crazy. Terrelle Pryor returns to starting lineup Sunday. Terrelle Pryor's agent says it's because Dennis Allen wants to see Terrelle Pryor fail.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10190535/oakland-raiders-coach-dennis-allen-hopes-terrelle-pryor-fail-agent-jerome-stanley-says

 

[MileHigh]

 

[outofplace]

http://thebiglead.com/2013/12/23/afc-playoffs-miami-has-66-chance-of-being-last-wildcard-based-on-point-spreads/

Add the win percentages based on point spread, and here is what we get for the final wildcard spot:

Miami – 66.0%
San Diego – 16.7%
Baltimore – 14.6%
Pittsburgh – 2.7%
That may seem high, but it is basically because, the way the tiebreakers work out, and the matchups, Miami is highly likely to make it if they win against the Jets at home. For those of you that remember chemistry class, the rate limiting step in Miami’s playoff chase is the Dolphins getting the win. They are listed as a 6.5 point favorite. They need a San Diego win or a Baltimore loss. Because San Diego is seen as a heavy favorite against the Chiefs, who are likely to rest starters after getting locked into the 5 seed, and because Baltimore is an underdog, Miami is in good shape.

However, I will note that these results are not entirely independent. San Diego plays in the late afternoon time slot, and the Baltimore and Miami results should be known about the time they kick off. San Diego will likely prepare to go all out no matter what (no point in resting starters even if eliminated), but there could be a psychological impact that lowers San Diego’s chances slightly, if they know they cannot advance. If Baltimore and Miami both win early, then the San Diego result very much matters for both of them.

I tend to personally like the Jets and those points with the pressure on Miami and the offense struggling on Sunday, but if you buy the Vegas odds, Miami is a prohibitive favorite, and it is actually San Diego, and not Baltimore, who is slightly more likely to get in.

As stated earlier; no team controls its own destiny. But Based on this criteria the Dolphins have the best chance.
I think it'll be interesting to see how this theory plays out Sunday.

Watch them all lose, including the Steelers, the latter probably through some act of stupidity.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Matthew Stafford's girlfriend tweets -- and a fan tweets back:

Kelly Hall @kellybhall
You wouldn't even know we were playing at home the way these fans are booing our home team. #unbelievable

#GoBlueEverything @DetroitKoolAid
.@kellybhall you wouldn't know Stafford played for the lions the way he keeps throwing to the other team

 

[old_tony]

Aaron Rodgers cleared to play vs. Bears Sunday.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/237298541.html