NFL Divisional Weekend thread

[Cosmo]

Saturday
Buffalo at Denver (-1.5/45.5), 430 EST/230 local, CBS
San Francisco at Seattle (-7.5/44.5), 8 EST/5 local, FOX

Sunday
Houston at New England (-3/40.5), 3 EST/local, ESPN/ABC
L.A. Rams (-3.5/48.5) at Chicago, 630 EST/530 local, NBC/The ****

One man's thoughts:
* One advantage of your quarterback having played at Wyoming is that playing at altitude is not a foreign concept. The Bills were able to sneak away with a win last week because Lawrence made a few dumb mistakes and Allen was superhuman. They faced the top run defense in the league last week, they get the second best run defense this week. Cook needs to cook to open some things up.
* Seattle is just better than San Francisco. McCaffery is going to have to be special again for the Niners to have a shot.
* Drake Maye faces a real defense. The Texans face a quarterback who isn't slower than a statue. Something's gotta give.
* At this point the Bears might be home dogs against non-playoff teams. No respect from Vegas whatsoever. That said, they either pull another win out of their asses or lose by 20.
* BYH and Tom Wilson, sitting in a tree...

 

[MileHigh]

For @Roscablo
I know, past performance is not indicative of future results. Still, found this interesting. The Broncos and Bills are two of 10 AFL franchises that merged with the NFL in 1970. None of those nine other former AFL teams that merged have ever won a playoff game in Denver. The Broncos are 10-0 at home in playoff games against their former AFL brethren -- and Buffalo becomes the seventh of the nine to come to 5,280 feet this week for a playoff game.

Patriots: 4-0
Oilers: 2-0
Chargers: 1-0
Dolphins: 1-0
Jets: 1-0
Raiders: 1-0

That said -- the Broncos have been here before as the AFC No. 1 seed in the divisional round with gut-punch results -- Jaguars in the 1996 season and Rahim freakin' Moore against the Ravens in the 2012 season.

 

[DanOregon]

I still think Rob Lytle fumbled.

 

[I Should Coco]

Being born and raised in Chicagoland and living in the PNW the past 17 years, this is as invested in the NFL playoffs as I’ve been in a long time.

That said, I have a tough time believing the Bears can beat the Rams with their leaky defense. Unless Stafford and company make a bunch of mistakes, LA is winning on Sunday.

The Seahawks? With all the 49ers injuries, you’d think Seattle should win. Certainly have a championship caliber defense (except for that recent game against the Rams). But it’s the playoffs so who knows?

 

[HanSenSE]

Keep an eye on Fred Warner's availability this week. The 49ers' defense can use all the help it can get.

I may be more fanboi than analyst here, but the 49ers pulling off the upset here would not be surprising.

 

[Roscablo]

For @Roscablo
I know, past performance is not indicative of future results. Still, found this interesting. The Broncos and Bills are two of 10 AFL franchises that merged with the NFL in 1970. None of those nine other former AFL teams that merged have ever won a playoff game in Denver. The Broncos are 10-0 at home in playoff games against their former AFL brethren -- and Buffalo becomes the seventh of the nine to come to 5,280 feet this week for a playoff game.

Patriots: 4-0
Oilers: 2-0
Chargers: 1-0
Dolphins: 1-0
Jets: 1-0
Raiders: 1-0

That said -- the Broncos have been here before as the AFC No. 1 seed in the divisional round with gut-punch results -- Jaguars in the 1996 season and Rahim freakin' Moore against the Ravens in the 2012 season.

That is a crazy stat. Who knows if it will continue.

This will be the third time the Broncos have played the Bills in the playoffs, both in Buffalo one being the blowlout last year, and it was a blowout but as actually close fairly deep into the third (which I didn't remember because it wasn't like the Broncos ever had a chance, but I saw a highlight the other day and kind of went, hmm). The other was the 1991 AFC championship game that the Bills won 10-7 and the Broncos missed three field goals and the Bills' TD was a pick six off a screen pass from the Denver 10.

Here is another one, I heard it is only the second time the No. 1 seed has been an underdog in the first game, but with a lazy search I can't find it. I think the Broncos were home dogs two other times this year and won them both.

Yes the Broncos have lost those games before as the No. 1 seed, this year is different in that I don't think anyone would ever have considered them an overall Super Bowl favorite and they were in both of those games. It will be disappointing to not take advantage of this, but the Bills have also been a team in waiting forever. It will be interesting to see the responses from both sides.

 

[micropolitan guy]

That is a crazy stat. Who knows if it will continue.

This will be the third time the Broncos have played the Bills in the playoffs, both in Buffalo one being the blowlout last year, and it was a blowout but as actually close fairly deep into the third (which I didn't remember because it wasn't like the Broncos ever had a chance, but I saw a highlight the other day and kind of went, hmm). The other was the 1991 AFC championship game that the Bills won 10-7 and the Broncos missed three field goals and the Bills' TD was a pick six off a screen pass from the Denver 10.

Here is another one, I heard it is only the second time the No. 1 seed has been an underdog in the first game, but with a lazy search I can't find it. I think the Broncos were home dogs two other times this year and won them both.

Yes the Broncos have lost those games before as the No. 1 seed, this year is different in that I don't think anyone would ever have considered them an overall Super Bowl favorite and they were in both of those games. It will be disappointing to not take advantage of this, but the Bills have also been a team in waiting forever. It will be interesting to see the responses from both sides.

Barring a superhuman effort from Allen, the Bills are so beat up I can't see them winning. One of their WRs played the second half of last week's game with a torn ACL. Obviously he's out this week.

And even if Buffalo somehow does win, no way can it have enough left in the tank to win a third road game in a row next weekend. That's a bridge too far, even for a seminal talent like Allen.

Have read about some Broncos fans in Wyoming pulling for Allen to win, though. "Family" comes first.

 

[BYH 2: Electric Boogaloo]

I know the 49ers are beat the hell up and this is probably just New York bias talking, but I just can't see Sam Darnold in a conference title game.

 

[da man]

The Seahawks? With all the 49ers injuries, you’d think Seattle should win. Certainly have a championship caliber defense (except for that recent game against the Rams). But it’s the playoffs so who knows?

And it’s Sam Darnold, so…

 

[Roscablo]

Barring a superhuman effort from Allen, the Bills are so beat up I can't see them winning. One of their WRs played the second half of last week's game with a torn ACL. Obviously he's out this week.

And even if Buffalo somehow does win, no way can it have enough left in the tank to win a third road game in a row next weekend. That's a bridge too far, even for a seminal talent like Allen.

Have read about some Broncos fans in Wyoming pulling for Allen to win, though. "Family" comes first.

Effing Wyoming fans!

I can't imagine there will be a big sway in how the cheering goes from Wyoming fans, but who knows. I have a bunch of family in Wyoming and half of them love the Broncos and half hate (because of this weird Wyoming obsession that exists to hate Colorado). One of my cousins is actually a Green Bay fan, which I haven't figured out why, I think maybe some because of her dad but I have never really seen him care about the Packers. She always goes to a couple of Packers games a year and last year went to the Buffalo game there, where she shared tons of photos of all the Wyoming Josh Allen fans there.

 

[micropolitan guy]

Effing Wyoming fans!

I can't imagine there will be a big sway in how the cheering goes from Wyoming fans, but who knows. I have a bunch of family in Wyoming and half of them love the Broncos and half hate (because of this weird Wyoming obsession that exists to hate Colorado). One of my cousins is actually a Green Bay fan, which I haven't figured out why, I think maybe some because of her dad but I have never really seen him care about the Packers. She always goes to a couple of Packers games a year and last year went to the Buffalo game there, where she shared tons of photos of all the Wyoming Josh Allen fans there.

Greenies!

The sweet little old lady owner of the convenience/grocery store we go to in Centennial (Wy, not Colo) calls them Commieradans, or something like that. Even though Colorado tourists (who have invaded the Snowys) probably account for half her business.

 

[Roscablo]

Greenies!

The sweet little old lady owner of the convenience/grocery store we go to in Centennial (Wy, not Colo) calls them Commieradans, or something like that. Even though Colorado tourists (who have invaded the Snowys) probably account for half her business.

So funny. My aunt is a big greenie spouter. You think anyone outside of Wyoming and those in Colorado who know what they are talking about even know what they mean?

I see so many Wyoming license plates every day. For hating it here so much they give us plenty of money too! My kids have probably skied at Snowy Range more than anywhere else, just because it is cheap and close.

 

[qtlaw]

And it’s Sam Darnold, so…

3 picks in the red zone!

 

[FileNotFound]

So funny. My aunt is a big greenie spouter. You think anyone outside of Wyoming and those in Colorado who know what they are talking about even know what they mean?

I see so many Wyoming license plates every day. For hating it here so much they give us plenty of money too! My kids have probably skied at Snowy Range more than anywhere else, just because it is cheap and close.

War between the square states!

 

[Spartan Squad]

I know the 49ers are beat the hell up and this is probably just New York bias talking, but I just can't see Sam Darnold in a conference title game.

If Seattle advances it will be a Jimmy G game: a lot of handing off and let the defense carry the way. Darnold won’t be asked to do much. If he is, the Niners will be on the way to an upset any way.

 

[Spartan Squad]

Keep an eye on Fred Warner's availability this week. The 49ers' defense can use all the help it can get.

I may be more fanboi than analyst here, but the 49ers pulling off the upset here would not be surprising.

I’m not holding my breath on Warner. I think the consensus is even though his window is open, he won’t be ready.

And there is nothing fanboi about the Niners realistically having a chance to win. First, Week 18 with no Trent Williams was still a 10-point game. Defense held Seattle to 13 (with two missed field goals and one failed attempt at a fourth down touchdown). Niners had one drive that was a tipped pass away from a CMC touchdown with a ton of time left.

Second, it’s still Shanahan against a familiar opponent. If they lose, it will be Seattle not doing any thing fancy and just running the ball a bunch.

I think Vegas is anticipating the money to go heavy for Seattle because of the injuries and an over reaction to Week 18. If you took betting forecasts out of the equation and just went with what Vegas really thinks will happen, the spread will be closer to 2.5 in favor of Seattle. The game will be close.

 

[DanielSimpsonDay]

 

[qtlaw]

I’m not holding my breath on Warner. I think the consensus is even though his window is open, he won’t be ready.

And there is nothing fanboi about the Niners realistically having a chance to win. First, Week 18 with no Trent Williams was still a 10-point game. Defense held Seattle to 13 (with two missed field goals and one failed attempt at a fourth down touchdown). Niners had one drive that was a tipped pass away from a CMC touchdown with a ton of time left.

Second, it’s still Shanahan against a familiar opponent. If they lose, it will be Seattle not doing any thing fancy and just running the ball a bunch.

I think Vegas is anticipating the money to go heavy for Seattle because of the injuries and an over reaction to Week 18. If you took betting forecasts out of the equation and just went with what Vegas really thinks will happen, the spread will be closer to 2.5 in favor of Seattle. The game will be close.

I think people make too much about the spread; the spread is what it takes to motivate betters to choose that team to win, it is NOT intended to replicate the final score. Even if two teams are close talent wise, where one team is more popular than the other, the spread needs to increase to get bettors to put $$ on the less popular team. In the 80's, the Niners were infamous for having large spreads against them because of all the hometown bettors who just wanted to lay $$ on the Niners.

 

[Della9250]

How many people would give up around $45 million to avoid playing for the Jets, only to probably get picked by the Jets next season?

 

[DanielSimpsonDay]

How many people would give up around $45 million to avoid playing for the Jets, only to probably get picked by the Jets next season?

and other finger on the monkey's paw curls