GOP 2012 primaries thread

[NoOneLikesUs]

Re: Huckabee won't run

I think this is a money issue. Obama has been very good to corporate interests and since it appears as if there are no real threats against Obama in the coming election (so far), the money will flow the incumbent's way. Those corporate interests who are unwilling to support Obama because of ideological differences are going to sit on the sidelines rather than **** money away for a lost cause.

 

[Point of Order]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Huck could not afford to run. Too bad because I was looking forward to seeing him get Willie Hortoned by a fellow republican.

 

[Boom_70]

Re: Huckabee won't run

I think this is a money issue. Obama has been very good to corporate interests and since it appears as if there are no real threats against Obama in the coming election (so far), the money will flow the incumbent's way. Those corporate interests who are unwilling to support Obama because of ideological differences are going to sit on the sidelines rather than **** money away for a lost cause.

I look for Obama to try and get Wall Street back in the fold.

 

[Mark McGwire]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Huckabee finished second last time, lets not forget. And he was the GOP's only prospective candidate without his approval ratings upside down.

If Teh Huck thought the nomination was worth having, he'd have run. As it is, he's waiting until 2016. It's Mittens or a crazy person.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Damn, I was really looking forward to the National Academy of Sciences debate featuring Huck, Palin and Bachmann.

 

[Boom_70]

Re: Huckabee won't run

National political media has vested interest in a successful Republican candidate. Bad for business otherwise.

 

[DanOregon]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Figure it will come down to Mitt vs. Someone Else. Big hole in the social conservative/Deep South section of the party. Considering the weight Iowa and South Carolina carry for the GOP nomination and it seems wide open.
The odd thing is, this might be a good year for the GOP to wrap things up early, but they changed their rules to ensure a longer primary race and avoid what happened last time when the Dems received all the attention after March and McCain kind of wandered around looking for something to do.

 

[Crash]

Re: Huckabee won't run

I think this is a money issue. Obama has been very good to corporate interests and since it appears as if there are no real threats against Obama in the coming election (so far), the money will flow the incumbent's way. Those corporate interests who are unwilling to support Obama because of ideological differences are going to sit on the sidelines rather than **** money away for a lost cause.

Wanna bet? Citizens United means this will be a money issue, no matter which way Wall Street and ordinary "special interests" go. Combine that with the fact that the AFL, SEIU and many of the unions are going to be more focused on state level campaigns. Obama is going to raise more money than any GOP candidate possibly could -- probably in excess of a billion dollars. And, unless things go his way dramatically between now and then -- I'm talking <8 percent unemployment, a completely horrendous opponent, and a great economic outlook -- he's still going to get outspent.

If it was a fundraising issue for Huckabee, it was a primary fundraising issue. The GOP will have no problem keeping up with Obama's money in the general.

 

[Boom_70]

Re: Huckabee won't run

In the current group of Republican candidates not one of them has any shot.

At it stands 2012 is a lost cause. It's going to be hard for candidates to raise a lot of money.

Would be interesting to see if Sarah Palin could fundraise. She supposedly has a huge following. They are certainly energetic and vocal. My hypothesis is that it wouldn't translate to dollars, though, because, ultimately, the establishment people with real money see her as a sideshow fringe candidate.

Palin could be a straw man candidate for 2012, just to keep the embers burning for 2016.

More than any other candidate, however, her clock is ticking. Unfortunately, one of her biggest assets is her looks. She's like 1994 Liz Phair for righties. A hot chick who makes them feel cool. I don't think that's completely sexist, either, because I think the same was probably true of W. to an extent.

I thought Mitch Daniel was the guy, but seems like there is quite a backlash developing over his social issues "truce."

You make a key point on "clock ticking". With hormones running wild, it would be highly doubtful that Palin could handle the rigors of a Presidential campaign.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Re: Huckabee won't run

I think this is a money issue. Obama has been very good to corporate interests and since it appears as if there are no real threats against Obama in the coming election (so far), the money will flow the incumbent's way. Those corporate interests who are unwilling to support Obama because of ideological differences are going to sit on the sidelines rather than **** money away for a lost cause.

Wanna bet? Citizens United means this will be a money issue, no matter which way Wall Street and ordinary "special interests" go. Combine that with the fact that the AFL, SEIU and many of the unions are going to be more focused on state level campaigns. Obama is going to raise more money than any GOP candidate possibly could -- probably in excess of a billion dollars. And, unless things go his way dramatically between now and then -- I'm talking <8 percent unemployment, a completely horrendous opponent, and a great economic outlook -- he's still going to get outspent.

If it was a fundraising issue for Huckabee, it was a primary fundraising issue. The GOP will have no problem keeping up with Obama's money in the general.

But that would be throwing good money after bad, unless there's a mystery candidate somewhere who is going to have more appeal than Obama. The GOP strategy is going to be to hold down Obama's coattails more than anything else so they can build up their numbers in both houses and prevent him from getting anything done in his second term.

 

[Crash]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Figure it will come down to Mitt vs. Someone Else. Big hole in the social conservative/Deep South section of the party. Considering the weight Iowa and South Carolina carry for the GOP nomination and it seems wide open.
The odd thing is, this might be a good year for the GOP to wrap things up early, but they changed their rules to ensure a longer primary race and avoid what happened last time when the Dems received all the attention after March and McCain kind of wandered around looking for something to do.

I'll be completely shocked if Mitt gets anywhere near enough delegates to come close. He's not winning Iowa. He's not winning South Carolina. He's not winning anywhere else in the south. His only hope is to finish second in those primaries, and I don't think that's happening.

The only praise Mitt has gotten since he got into the race is from Democrats. His health speech was a disaster. The conservative media is against him at both the establishment (WSJ) and "grassroots" (National Review, RedState, etc) level.

The GOP decided Mitt wasn't going to be the nominee the day 20+ states filed lawsuits against the mandate. And Mitt decided he wasn't going to be the nominee Thursday, when he refused to back down off of it, clinging to a federalist argument not even he believes.

 

[Boom_70]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Time for Mitt to pick up the white courtesy phone.

National media will pump Newt because it's good for business.

Only hope for Republicans is if they can get Kristi to jump in race.

 

[Crash]

Re: Huckabee won't run

I think this is a money issue. Obama has been very good to corporate interests and since it appears as if there are no real threats against Obama in the coming election (so far), the money will flow the incumbent's way. Those corporate interests who are unwilling to support Obama because of ideological differences are going to sit on the sidelines rather than **** money away for a lost cause.

Wanna bet? Citizens United means this will be a money issue, no matter which way Wall Street and ordinary "special interests" go. Combine that with the fact that the AFL, SEIU and many of the unions are going to be more focused on state level campaigns. Obama is going to raise more money than any GOP candidate possibly could -- probably in excess of a billion dollars. And, unless things go his way dramatically between now and then -- I'm talking <8 percent unemployment, a completely horrendous opponent, and a great economic outlook -- he's still going to get outspent.

If it was a fundraising issue for Huckabee, it was a primary fundraising issue. The GOP will have no problem keeping up with Obama's money in the general.

But that would be throwing good money after bad, unless there's a mystery candidate somewhere who is going to have more appeal than Obama. The GOP strategy is going to be to hold down Obama's coattails more than anything else so they can build up their numbers in both houses and prevent him from getting anything done in his second term.

They'll have plenty left over for the state campaigns. The GOP has a favorable map in the Senate and a slightly more-favorable map in the House due to controlling the main redistricting states. It has a very good chance of taking the Senate back, and unless they keep attaching themselves to this stupid ass Ryan budget, it's not going to lose the House.

Even if the race is virtually unwinnable, those 527s are going to spend a lot of money, even if its only to try to damage Obama before he starts his final term.

 

[steveu]

Re: Huckabee won't run

In the current group of Republican candidates not one of them has any shot.

At it stands 2012 is a lost cause. It's going to be hard for candidates to raise a lot of money.

George HW Bush... 91 percent approval rating following Desert Storm in March 1991. Lost the election in November 1992.

I'm only saying never say never. I don't want to get into a pissing match with anyone (lol) but there are parts of this agenda I do not want to see enacted. Obama deserves credit for OBL and the raid to bring him down, but in the end it's still the economy, stupid.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Re: Huckabee won't run

In the current group of Republican candidates not one of them has any shot.

At it stands 2012 is a lost cause. It's going to be hard for candidates to raise a lot of money.

George HW Bush... 91 percent approval rating following Desert Storm in March 1991. Lost the election in November 1992.

I'm only saying never say never. I don't want to get into a pissing match with anyone (lol) but there are parts of this agenda I do not want to see enacted. Obama deserves credit for OBL and the raid to bring him down, but in the end it's still the economy, stupid.

In 1992 Bush ran into a little-known candidate from Arkansas and a late wild-card entrant who drew an astronomical percentage of the vote for a third-party candidate. In the current oversaturation landscape there is not a little-known anyone from anywhere. Polls and circumstances can change, but the pool of candidates is pretty well established, and they are all fairly well known to the populace already.

 

[Mark McGwire]

Re: Huckabee won't run

In the current group of Republican candidates not one of them has any shot.

At it stands 2012 is a lost cause. It's going to be hard for candidates to raise a lot of money.

George HW Bush... 91 percent approval rating following Desert Storm in March 1991. Lost the election in November 1992.

I'm only saying never say never. I don't want to get into a pissing match with anyone (lol) but there are parts of this agenda I do not want to see enacted. Obama deserves credit for OBL and the raid to bring him down, but in the end it's still the economy, stupid.

In 1992 Bush ran into a little-known candidate from Arkansas and a late wild-card entrant who drew an astronomical percentage of the vote for a third-party candidate. In the current oversaturation landscape there is not a little-known anyone from anywhere. Polls and circumstances can change, but the pool of candidates is pretty well established, and they are all fairly well known to the populace already.

Precisely so. Also, too, the problem with this analogy is you have to think either Mitch Daniels or Tim Pawlenty is as good in a campaign as Bill Clinton.

 

[YGBFKM]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Bin Laden will have nothing to do with this race, not in short-term memory America. If gas is still hovering near $4 a gallon, Obama will face a bit of a challenge in being re-elected. If gas prices drop significantly in the next year-plus, he'll win in a Reagan vs. Mondale-type rout.

 

[suburbia]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Chris Kristie strikes the right tone for the Republicans but he is smart enough not to challenge Obama in 2012.

Cuomo could be on the horizon in 2016 for the Democrats, if he continues to have success in NYS.

Another 2016 Democrat to watch out for is Brian Schweitzer, the Governor of Montana. He's quite popular (60% approval rating http://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/article_fd60c6aa-537d-11e0-947f-001cc4c03286.html), especially for a Democratic governor in a lean-Republican state. Yet he's different enough ideologically from Obama and the east coast/Chicago Democrats that he might still have a shot even if the electorate has Obama fatigue in 2016.

 

[Mark McGwire]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Bin Laden will have nothing to do with this race, not in short-term memory America. If gas is still hovering near $4 a gallon, Obama will face a bit of a challenge in being re-elected. If gas prices drop significantly in the next year-plus, he'll win in a Reagan vs. Mondale-type rout.

Yup. Though gas prices go down and people forget about them, so the unemployment number is probably the better index. The economy can beat Obama. The GOP doesn't have anyone who can do it on his or her own.

 

[Point of Order]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Someone will still have to convince the voter that he/she can do a better job with the economy than Obama.