GOP 2012 primaries thread

[Boom_70]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Republicans realize that they can better shape the country by controlling Congress.

That's not going to be a winning strategy with Obama in the White House, Boom. Boehner is an epic failure at the moment. He has a Tea Party faction that apparently has no clue how to govern, but is nonetheless insistent on pushing an agenda that's going nowhere fast.

The only thing the Republicans in Congress are shaping at the moment is the next Democratic majority. The Dems recently retook the lead in the generic matchup. Just five months into GOP control, that's not exactly a good omen.

Don't see Boehner as epic failure at all. Still though, The Republicans have better shot at controlling Congress than they do winning Presidency.

 

[suburbia]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Suburbia is worried Obama tops out at 382 EVs.

I love this place.

What makes you think I'm "worried" about that?

A win is a win. Hell, Bush II won re-election by 100K votes in Ohio in 2004 and claimed he had a mandate. And FWIW, I think we're screwed no matter who wins. I'm not crazy with Obama, but the current crop of GOP candidates aren't the answer either.

I was just refuting the notion that Obama or any Democrat could repeat Reagan's landslide. They just can't.

Let the GOP run Palin and we'll find out, won't we?

Palin's old news. Bachmann 2012!!

Yes, though I don't think Sarah Palin really wants to run anyway. Maybe for a while she did. But then she realized she could make far more money as an author and conservative media celebrity while having very little accountability. She can take her childish-sounding, borderline incoherent potshots at Obama on Twitter, give speeches for $100K a pop and make guest appearances on FOX News without having to answer any really tough questions.

She has to keep up the facade of considering running for President someday in order to maximize the amount of money she commands. But if she were really serious about running, she would have started barnstorming primary states, fundraising and putting together a campaign infrastructure (as even Rick Santorum was doing months ago) long before now. As energetic as her devoted legions of fans are, you still need to raise oodles of money to get elected President. And she hasn't put in the legwork for that.

As for dixiehack's 14 states comment, I can give you these right off the bat: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming.

If the Democratic nominee isn't a Blue Dog-type, add West Virginia, Tennessee and Arkansas to that list. Even a Blue Dog-type would have trouble winning those states in this day and age.

 

[Mark McGwire]

Re: Huckabee won't run

YF:

He can unnerve with a smile
He can disconcert with his eyes
He can ruin your Tea Party by changing his mind
And he only wants mandates for those in Southie,
He spins like a top,
But he'll always be Mittens to me

But I am still all about Huckmentum.

 

[Mark McGwire]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Obama split Nebraska last time, and against Palin or Bachmann or, hell, even Santorum, half of those are easily in play. West Virginia? Arkansas? Louisiana? Against Palin? Really?

Otherwise, great analysis.

 

[dooley_womack1]

Re: Huckabee won't run

I don't think Kentucky is that much of a lock. Now let's see the Obama locks: California, New York, Massachusetts, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont, Delaware, Minnesota. I like the looks of that comparison

 

[Boom_70]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Again - game changer is Kristi. Obama would have trouble beating him. Doubt he will jump in though.

 

[dixiehack]

Re: Huckabee won't run

My list is mostly the same. I had W. Va. as an automatic, and excluded Georgia and Kansas.

 

[secretariat]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Nenad Krstic? Christy Turlington? Jesus Christ?

 

[Mark McGwire]

Re: Huckabee won't run

My list is mostly the same. I had W. Va. as an automatic, and excluded Georgia and Kansas.

Kansas is a GOP lock -- Nebraska isn't if they nominate a crazy person. You're right to exclude Georgia. Very much in play depending on the GOP nominee. Obama lost it to McCain by five points.

 

[Mark McGwire]

Re: Huckabee won't run

I don't think Kentucky is that much of a lock. Now let's see the Obama locks: California, New York, Massachusetts, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont, Delaware, Minnesota. I like the looks of that comparison

Add DC and Maine, and you've got it.

 

[Starman]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Nenad Krstic? Christy Turlington? Jesus Christ?

Christi O'Donnell? Yeah, that would be a game-changer.

 

[Ben_Hecht]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Again - game changer is Kristi. Obama would have trouble beating him. Doubt he will jump in though.

Christie has managed his act well. But his wholesale foreign-policy greenness would come into play in a national run, and the fact-checkers will
have a grand time examining the veracity of some of the claims he's made
in his boilerplate speeches. Exposure in the spotlight brings intense scrutiny.

 

[YankeeFan]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Again - game changer is Kristi. Obama would have trouble beating him. Doubt he will jump in though.

I'm not so sure. Christie talks tough & is doing a pretty good job, but he's not really that conservative.

The county is just about split 50/50 right now. And, while Obama is riding high off of killing Obama right now, he'll be back down to earth soon. The economy, jobs, gas prices, taxes, etc. will be the issues. Obama will have to run on his record and not his potential.

The Republicans dominated the 2010 midterms and should have an enthusiasm advantage. But, they'll blow that advantage if they don't nominate a conservative.

In 2008, we nominated the media's favorite Republican. We nominated the guy who every week would go on the Sunday talk shows and criticize fellow Republicans. We nominated the guy who "compromised" and "worked across the aisle". We nominated just the kind of Republican Colin Powell would hope for.

And, how did that work out?

Many conservatives hated McCain. There was no enthusiasm for his candidacy.

If the Republican Party is going to win in 2012, it needs to energize its base. It can't be an "alternative" to the Democrats. We need someone who can clearly enunciate conservative principles and draw a distiction between the two parties.

I don't know which of the current candidates can do that. Maybe Romney can. Maybe Pawlenty can. We'll see.

 

[Point of Order]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Kris Kristi is a buffoon of the first order. He has no policy chops - domestic or foreign - he's just a good **** talker.

 

[sportsguydave]

Re: Huckabee won't run

I don't think Kentucky is that much of a lock. Now let's see the Obama locks: California, New York, Massachusetts, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont, Delaware, Minnesota. I like the looks of that comparison

Add DC and Maine, and you've got it.

I think thanks in large part to Scott Walker, we might be able to put Wisconsin solidly in Obama's column - especially if recall efforts are successful and there's a Dem in the statehouse in Madison in 2012. Time will tell.

 

[Mark McGwire]

Re: Huckabee won't run

I don't think Kentucky is that much of a lock. Now let's see the Obama locks: California, New York, Massachusetts, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont, Delaware, Minnesota. I like the looks of that comparison

Add DC and Maine, and you've got it.

I think thanks in large part to Scott Walker, we might be able to put Wisconsin solidly in Obama's column - especially if recall efforts are successful and there's a Dem in the statehouse in Madison in 2012. Time will tell.

I think Obama holds Iowa and Wisconsin, but neither can be slotted as locks. They're both Leans Blue.

 

[Boom_70]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Next week Obama is going to stop the flow of the mighty Miss and that will seal up the deep South.

 

[Starman]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Kris Kristi is a buffoon of the first order. He has no policy chops - domestic or foreign - he's just a good **** talker.

He's a big fat bully -- the kind of guy on whom everybody who's not a big fat bully would just love to land a right cross to the jaw.

 

[Mark McGwire]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Again - game changer is Kristi. Obama would have trouble beating him. Doubt he will jump in though.

I'm not so sure. Christie talks tough & is doing a pretty good job, but he's not really that conservative.

The county is just about split 50/50 right now. And, while Obama is riding high off of killing Obama right now, he'll be back down to earth soon. The economy, jobs, gas prices, taxes, etc. will be the issues. Obama will have to run on his record and not his potential.

The Republicans dominated the 2010 midterms and should have an enthusiasm advantage. But, they'll blow that advantage if they don't nominate a conservative.

In 2008, we nominated the media's favorite Republican. We nominated the guy who every week would go on the Sunday talk shows and criticize fellow Republicans. We nominated the guy who "compromised" and "worked across the aisle". We nominated just the kind of Republican Colin Powell would hope for.

And, how did that work out?

Many conservatives hated McCain. There was no enthusiasm for his candidacy.

If the Republican Party is going to win in 2012, it needs to energize its base. It can't be an "alternative" to the Democrats. We need someone who can clearly enunciate conservative principles and draw a distiction between the two parties.

I don't know which of the current candidates can do that. Maybe Romney can. Maybe Pawlenty can. We'll see.

Neither Romney nor Pawlenty is any more conservative than McCain. They're both blue state governors playing conservative for the primaries. If you want someone more conservative, it looks like your choices are Santorum, Palin, Bachmann or Newt. Happy hunting!

 

[dixiehack]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Kentucky and West Virginia might be in play for a generic Democrat, but not Obama. Sadly, race still matters.