GOP 2012 primaries thread

[Boom_70]

Re: Huckabee won't run

In the current group of Republican candidates not one of them has any shot.

At it stands 2012 is a lost cause. It's going to be hard for candidates to raise a lot of money.

 

[Dick Whitman]

Re: Huckabee won't run

In the current group of Republican candidates not one of them has any shot.

At it stands 2012 is a lost cause. It's going to be hard for candidates to raise a lot of money.

Would be interesting to see if Sarah Palin could fundraise. She supposedly has a huge following. They are certainly energetic and vocal. My hypothesis is that it wouldn't translate to dollars, though, because, ultimately, the establishment people with real money see her as a sideshow fringe candidate.

 

[Boom_70]

Re: Huckabee won't run

In the current group of Republican candidates not one of them has any shot.

At it stands 2012 is a lost cause. It's going to be hard for candidates to raise a lot of money.

Would be interesting to see if Sarah Palin could fundraise. She supposedly has a huge following. They are certainly energetic and vocal. My hypothesis is that it wouldn't translate to dollars, though, because, ultimately, the establishment people with real money see her as a sideshow fringe candidate.

Palin could be a straw man candidate for 2012, just to keep the embers burning for 2016.

 

[Dick Whitman]

Re: Huckabee won't run

In the current group of Republican candidates not one of them has any shot.

At it stands 2012 is a lost cause. It's going to be hard for candidates to raise a lot of money.

Would be interesting to see if Sarah Palin could fundraise. She supposedly has a huge following. They are certainly energetic and vocal. My hypothesis is that it wouldn't translate to dollars, though, because, ultimately, the establishment people with real money see her as a sideshow fringe candidate.

Palin could be a straw man candidate for 2012, just to keep the embers burning for 2016.

More than any other candidate, however, her clock is ticking. Unfortunately, one of her biggest assets is her looks. She's like 1994 Liz Phair for righties. A hot chick who makes them feel cool. I don't think that's completely sexist, either, because I think the same was probably true of W. to an extent.

I thought Mitch Daniel was the guy, but seems like there is quite a backlash developing over his social issues "truce."

 

[suburbia]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Mike Huckabee let a man, who then went on to kill four police officers, out of prison.

The fact that didn't kill his political career is mindboggling.

Maybe it would have had he actually launched a campaign. That story, IIRC, didn't come out until long after he left the Governor's Mansion.

Also remember that lines of attack like that work best when they reinforce stereotypes about a candidate or his/her party; ie, when they fit with what a lot of voters already believe to be true. A big reason why the Willie Horton ad was so effective against Michael Dukakis was because Democrats were perceived as being soft and weak on crime. The line of attack therefore made sense to voters.

Would such a line of attack have worked against Huckabee? Maybe in the primary (when the attack came from fellow Republicans) it would have. But had Obama or an outside group used that line of attack in the general election, it would have been a far tougher sell because it would have contradicted with the electorate's stereotypes of both parties.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Running for President is very hard work with a very high-risk reward ratio. Cashing in on right-wing welfare with a Fox gig is hardly work at all with no risk. If a pol is sane enough to think in those terms, and by all accounts Huckabee is, this is a pretty easy call.

 

[Crash]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Two things:

1) This has absolutely nothing to do with Huckabee wanting or not wanting to be president. It has everything to do with the fact that his television show and outside interests will make him a ton of money over the next four years. Run and lose, and all that's gone.

2) The GOP will have absolutely zero money problems in this election, at least as far as the presidential race is concerned. The candidate him/herself may not raise a ton of money, but outside groups are going to keep the GOP competitive. Even if Obama does raise a billion dollars, he'll be outspent, maybe by as much as 2:1 between the end of the Republican primary and the first Tuesday in November.

 

[YankeeFan]

Re: Huckabee won't run

People keep talking about all the money Huck gets from FOX.

How much money could he possibly be making for a once a week, Saturday night show?

Now, if he gets Beck's daily time slot (and ratings) he could make some big bucks.

I do believe that Huck would prefer to make money, than have to run for President and raise it. Huck is like the guy on Celebrity Apprentice who tries to look busy on a fundraising challenge because he doesn't have any rich friends to call.

And, he's the prototype for using a Presidential run to increase your name recognition to the point you can make a living off of just being famous.

But, he's got to be making more from speeches and appearances than he is from FOX.

 

[Crash]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Speeches and appearances are "outside interests," no? And they'd stop during a presidential campaign.

He's making a lot of money. If he wasn't, he'd be running for president.

 

[YankeeFan]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Speeches and appearances are "outside interests," no? And they'd stop during a presidential campaign.

He's making a lot of money. If he wasn't, he'd be running for president.

Oh, yeah. It's for financial reasons and those would all stop too.

And, the FOX thing helps keep him in the public consciousness I suppose.

I just don't think FOX is backing a truck full of cash up to his house on the 1st & 15th.

 

[Dick Whitman]

Re: Huckabee won't run

His books have to sell well, no?

 

[Bob Cook]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Regarding Daniels' social issues "truce," that went out the window this legislative session, with an overwhelming Republican majority and his need to come up with some red meat for his presidential campaign. Indiana became the first state to defund Planned Parenthood (though many more are working on it), and passed other draconian abortion restrictions. He effectively led a state takeover of the public education system, heavy on charters and vouchers, and setting terms of teacher pay that take decisions out of the hands of local boards. The immigration legislation he signed wasn't the Arizona-style bill that its sponsor originally wanted, but it still was a shocking move for a guy who previously had been business- and immigrant-friendly (the laws lay out actions against businesses who employ illegals, and prevent undocumented children and residents from being allowed to pay in-state college tuition rates, among other things). This, despite many leaders in Indiana, including the state's Republican attorney general, signing a document called the Indiana Compact, which declares immigration to be a federal, not state, issue.

Daniels is governing Indiana not as someone looking out for the state, but as someone trying to get into the best chicken dinners in Iowa.

Yet, it's a mystery whether his wife will be a part of this, or whether he won't run because of her. She refused to move to the governor's mansion. Instead, after his election, Daniels built her a bigger house in the Indy suburbs. Maybe she'll get a bigger one if Daniels becomes president, and she becomes the first First Lady to refuse to live in the White House.

 

[YankeeFan]

Re: Huckabee won't run

His books have to sell well, no?

No idea.

Honestly, I couldn't even tell you if he's written one. Huck's one of those guys with a small but intense following.

Just from looking at book lists, he can't sell like Beck, O'Reilly, Levin, even Hannity who are on the air daily and pimp the hell out of their books -- and have larger audiences.

 

[sportsguydave]

Re: Huckabee won't run

In the current group of Republican candidates not one of them has any shot.

At it stands 2012 is a lost cause. It's going to be hard for candidates to raise a lot of money.

Would be interesting to see if Sarah Palin could fundraise. She supposedly has a huge following. They are certainly energetic and vocal. My hypothesis is that it wouldn't translate to dollars, though, because, ultimately, the establishment people with real money see her as a sideshow fringe candidate.

I don't think Sarah Palin has a large following. I think she has a loud following. There's a big difference. Her brand was tarnished last fall when two of her big anointed candidates crashed and burned.

She's carved out a nice niche for herself on Fox, where she can snipe at Obama from Facebook and Twitter and never have to answer any real questions from real journalists. I don't think she runs. It's getting very late in the game.

 

[JakeandElwood]

Re: Huckabee won't run

His books have to sell well, no?

No idea.

Honestly, I couldn't even tell you if he's written one. Huck's one of those guys with a small but intense following.

Just from looking at book lists, he can't sell like Beck, O'Reilly, Levin, even Hannity who are on the air daily and pimp the hell out of their books -- and have larger audiences.

I don't have a link handy, but the WSJ said Huckabee's book and TV show earnings have made him wealthy for the first time and he is building a mansion in Florida. So he might not be getting Beck money, but he's doing all right.

 

[YankeeFan]

Re: Huckabee won't run

The salary of the Governor of Arkansas is one of the lowest in the nation. In 2007, when he left, it was just over $80,000 and in 2001, (when he had been in office for five years) it was less than $70,000.

http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?contentId=207914

http://www.stateline.org/live/ViewPage.action?siteNodeId=136&languageId=1&contentId=14239

And, Huck didn't come into public service with a lot of money.

So, he's surely doing better now than he's been at any time previously.

And it's a lot harder to live on a low salary once you've lived on a bigger one.

So, I don't find his decision to not run surprising.

And, while I find Huck to be sort of a phony, it's also wrong to write of his decision as a non event. He was the favorite to win the Iowa primary, so it does change the race. It also changes Mitt's strategy. He was considering skipping Iowa and conceding it to Huck. Now, he probably can't skip Iowa and a poor showing could really hurt him.

 

[Boom_70]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Chris Kristie strikes the right tone for the Republicans but he is smart enough not to challenge Obama in 2012.

Cuomo could be on the horizon in 2016 for the Democrats, if he continues to have success in NYS.

 

[Brian]

Re: Huckabee won't run

If he were running, he wouldn't have gained his weight back. America will never again elect a fat person President. That I'm convinced of. You can be a liar, neurotic, a filanderer, a warmongerer, an alcoholic, an ex coke user or any race or gender, but America will not elect a fat person.

 

[NightHawk112005]

Re: Huckabee won't run

So much for that dream. President Huckabee was sounding good to me, but I knew deep down he wasn't going to run. I guess he just doesn't want to be president anymore, since I don't think he'll ever have a better chance.

I assume by better chance, you mean better chance to get his ass kicked by an incumbent with a 60% approval rating.

Huckabee's realized what every other legitimate GOP candidate (if that's not an oxymoron) save Mittens will realize: This is an audition for the role of Bob Dole.

No, I mean a better chance to win the presidency. Obama is VERY vulnerable. That 60% approval rating is a smokescreen caused by his killing of Bin Laden. It was the same for George H. W. Bush in 1991. His approval ratings were so high after Kuwait everyone thought he was unbeatable. What happened? The domestic problems surfaced and Bush went down to an easy defeat.

So I mean a better chance to kick the ass of the incumbent with a 60% approval rating that is going to disappear before the election. This is an audition for the role of Bill Clinton. If Huckabee doesn't want to run now, it's a clear sign that he likes his life too much right now and isn't that interested in being president.

 

[PCLoadLetter]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Obama is vulnerable if the GOP finds a candidate.

He's not vulnerable if the GOP can't find someone better than the current crop, and Huckabee wasn't even the class of those bozos. He had no shot whatsoever.

It's 2004 all over again, just with a party switch. A beatable incumbent with a terribly weak field lining up to take a shot at him.