2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

[Driftwood]

Well, it's that time of year again. Let's discuss something that brings me more pleasure and is less destructive than other aspects of 2025 so far:
Hurricanes!

 

[Driftwood]

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could stay “near-average” through September for the U.S., according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
The analysis projects approximately 12 named storms through September. According to the National Hurricane Center, the average season between 1991 and 2020 had 10 storms through September, and 14 total.
Colorado State University Atlantic hurricane specialist Phil Klotzbach wrote on X that the forecast is probably influenced by two factors: neither La Niña nor El Niño will likely be at play. La Niña conditions tend to aid hurricane formation, while El Niño conditions tend to inhibit storms with wind shear.
Secondly, sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic where hurricanes brew are forecast to be near normal. That’s in contrast to 2023 and 2024, which set records for hot water. Warm waters fuel hurricanes.

 

[dixiehack]

We’ve got a few months for people to come up with fresher material than “Hurricane Karen wants to speak to the manager.” Use your time wisely.

 

[BTExpress]

I can only hope the one named after me will be like me, small and basically unobtrusive.

 

[Driftwood]

F storms have always been an issue in my area. I hope Fernand is more of an ABBA Fernando than Ferdinand the bull.

 

[dixiehack]

If something knocks out my power again, F storms are going to become a problem in this house too.

 

[Shropshire Slasher]

It’s almost always the H storm or the I storm.

 

[BTExpress]

I'm guessin' that's because it's usually the middle of the season when you get to H-I-J-K.

Although Andrew has entered the chat room.

 

[2muchcoffeeman]

It’s almost always the H storm or the I storm.

Milton demands your respect in retirement.

 

[Driftwood]

"AccuWeather is forecasting near to above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and direct impacts to the United States," DaSilva said.
Between 13 and 18 named storms are expected in 2025, including 7-10 hurricanes, three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher, and three to six direct U.S. impacts. DaSilva added that there is a 20% chance of more than 18 named storms this year.

 

[dixiehack]

Sounds like a great summer to stress test exciting new changes in disaster management.

 

[Driftwood]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...c-hurricane-season-2025-forecast/82755997007/
Get ready for another active Atlantic hurricane season, with as many as 17 storms expected, experts from Colorado State University said in their initial forecast released Thursday morning.
Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast that nine will become hurricanes. A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, with seven of them spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020.
"Two of the big factors that went into this forecast are the state of Atlantic and Pacific sea-surface temperatures," Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY this week. Both have a major impact on the intensity and severity of the hurricane season.
He said that overall, while the Atlantic Ocean is "thankfully not as warm as it was last year at this time," most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is still warmer than normal. He added that the current sea-surface temperature pattern is "pretty similar to what we see in Aprils prior to active seasons."

 

[Driftwood]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...hurricane-hit-your-state-in-2025/82792503007/
In Florida, there is a 92% storm chance and 65% hurricane chance this year. There is also a 35% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the state.

There is a 62% storm chance and 35% hurricane chance in Mississippi this year.

There is a 76% storm chance and 46% hurricane chance in North Carolina this year.

In South Carolina, there is a 66% storm chance and 35% hurricane chance this year.

In Texas, there is a 70% storm chance and 44% hurricane chance this year, as well as a 19% chance of a major hurricane tracking within 50 miles of the state.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Good luck to all our coastal SJers ...

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/weather/noaa-forecast-hurricane-season.html

 

[Driftwood]

Good luck to all our coastal SJers ...

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/weather/noaa-forecast-hurricane-season.html

We'll probably get nailed with a Cat 9 because today I officially left Tennessee and am sitting on the coast of North Carolina as a full-time island resident.

 

[dixiehack]

Happy airplane license plates to you and yours.

 

[Batman]

Happy airplane license plates to you and yours.

Little known fact: "First in Flight" actually refers to unsecured patio furniture.

 

[Driftwood]

Little known fact: "First in Flight" actually refers to unsecured patio furniture.

 

[maumann]

That's just not Wright.

 

[swingline]

That's just not Wright.

Thompson?