Armchair_QB said:
PopeDirkBenedict said:
Armchair_QB said:
These leagues always die because they fail to land a legit TV deal. With NBC, CBS and Fox now ramping up channels to compete with ESPN and needing programming its entirely possible they could land one.
It's also possible the NFL Network might want it. They need summer programming so badly they were going to show a rugby 7s tournament in July but the competition they were going to air now won't debut until 2014.
XFL was on NBC. Arena football was on NBC and even had an EA video game. UFL has various regional TV deals. Didn't help those leagues one bit.
The XFL existed in an entirely different TV era and was on network TV. Not the same as a cable deal, which is what I'm talking about.
The Arena League is still around and will air on the CBS Sports Network this season. The same type of deal any start-up league should be looking for.
And a few regional deals isn't the same thing as a national cable deal - which is what I was talking about.
I'm not saying the USFL will succeed. What I'm saying is that they stand a much better chance of securing a TV deal that works for them than the XFL or UFL did due to the fact that ESPN is no longer the only national all-sports channel.
These TV deals won't make them any money. I've been Googling and can't find how much money, if any, CBS Sports Network paid for those rights. The AFL on NBC deal worked so that NBC got the first 8 million in ad money to recoup production costs, AFL got the next 3 million and then a 50/50 of remaining revenues. My guess is that the CBS deal is something similar, only on a smaller scale. So I still don't see how this makes the owners a profit or makes their games more popular; the AFL filed for bankruptcy in 2009 despite national TV deals with NBC (2003-07) and a new deal with ESPN (2007). I can't see a scenario where a network pays a minor football league money for the rights to show the games; as you suggested, these games are essentially broadcast filler and aren't worth a substantial investment by the network.
The more I think about it, the only deal that has a chance of being profitable today is to do what the USFL did: compete directly for players.
The NFL is locked into a labor deal until 2020. That means the restrictive rookie caps are in place and are a perfect place to compete. RG3 signed a four year deal for $21 million; a league backed by a few billionaries could have easily offered him over 30 million for that same 4 years. Start competing for rookies, knowing that the NFL teams are hamstrung in what they can offer. You would just have to offer a few million more and guarantee more of the money; this is the one time the NFL really can't win the bidding war.
Pick off a few big names in free agency and build around that. Also, allow players to come out after their freshman year. While the NFL is picking over Luke Jaeckel, the new league could be signing Manziel and Clowney. The league would get eyeballs in a hurry and a TV deal.
And it would send the NFL into chaos. In order to compete for the top rookies, the NFL owners would need to tear up the CBA to change the rookie salary caps. But there is no way the players do that without the NFL giving in on a few other issues; the players would hold all the leverage for once. With enough backing, it could work.