NBA Draft question

[Mark2010]

Question for those of you who are up on the NBA and college basketball:

What's the deal with North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough and the NBA Draft? Admittedly, I don't watch a lot of basketball, but it seemed like everytime I looked up the past couple of years it was Hansbrough this, Hansbrough that. College player of the year, national championship team. Typical big man on campus (literally as well as figuratively).

So why is there so little talk about him by these so-called draft experts? Is there something surrounding him (drugs, whatever, etc.) that was reported earlier and I might have missed? I hear a lot about Blake Griffin, but not nearly as much about Hansbrough. What's up?

 

[JackReacher]

Good college player. Most discussions end there, although there are some who say his "toughness" will transfer into the NBA and help him get acclimated to the league.

Apparently, his stock is rising this week and he's being talked about as a mid first-rounder.

Personally, I don't think he'll be all that good. We'll see. This draft class blows except for the guards.

 

[prezclinton]

I think he'll be a valuable bench player. Rebounding and range transfer to the NBA. He'll figure the rest out. I'm a UNC shill so take it FWIW but he'll probably have a better career than say, Danny Green.

 

[Captain_Kirk]

What the draftniks and talking heads would categorize as 'limited upside'. Great college player who's pretty much topped out at that level. In terms of an ACC comparison, somewhere between Sheldon Williams and Christian Laettner.

 

[Mark2010]

OK, so how does a guy manage to dominate at that level, be player of the year and all, and have other players that don't accomplish as much rated higher? That doesn't make any sense to me. I guess I could understand if he was a guard and only 6-1, where people might say size was an issue. But for a big man, it puzzles me.

Heck, Sean May, who I thought wasn't anywhere near as good as Hansbrough at North Carolina, managed to survive, although certainly not a superstar.

Someone mentioned Laettner, who, if memory serves me correct, was the No. 3 overall pick.

 

[Pancamo]

He needs to develop a face-up game. He won't be able to get his shot off in the low post on a consistent basis because he plays below the rim and is not long.

Sean May isn't surviving in the league. The Bobcats did not make a qualifying offer to May allowing him to leave without compensation. Sean May is a major bust.

 

[JackReacher]

As for Hansbrough, see Redick, J.J. and Morrison, Adam.

Great college players who's game didn't roll over into the league. Happens all the time. Nothing rare about it.

 

[Cosmo]

There are very few back-to-the-basket posts in the NBA, and the ones that are successful at that type of game -- Shaq, Duncan, etc. -- are significantly larger than Hansbrough. We're talking about a league where 7-foot Zydrunas Ilgauskas' best asset is his long-range shooting. Big men in the league need to be excellent passers and possess a good mid-range shooting game, and I don't think Hansbrough fits either of those bills. Also, all those foul calls he got in the ACC because of reputation, he ain't gettin' in the league.

 

[Mark2010]

Heck, Kevin Love went in the top five last year. And I thought Hansbrough, at least at this stage of their careers, is a better player than Love. Oh well.

 

[Bob Cook]

The problem for players like Hansbrough is that he'll be facing bigger, faster and stronger players inside than he did in college. It's the problem whenever you step up a level at any age, from NCAA to NBA to 7- and 8-year-old girls' softball to 9- and 10-year-old: suddenly everyone is better, and your skills might be blunted as a result.

 

[spnited]

Mark, there is a long list of "great" college players who were busts in the NBA ... step too slow, an inch too short, not enough range, etc. etc.
I think Hansbrough will be a decent bench player in the NBA because he has ability and plays hard all the time. He'll be a good role player who will help a good team but he's not going to make a bad team significiantly better, as Blake Griffin can.

 

[Stoney]

Heck, Sean May, who I thought wasn't anywhere near as good as Hansbrough at North Carolina, managed to survive, although certainly not a superstar.

Wow, you're really using Sean May as your comparative to argue that Hansbrough should be drafted higher? I guess you've been watching a different NBA than me, because May's not really been "managing to survive", he's been a huge disappointment (although much of that is due to injuries). If NBA GMs were guaranteed that Hansbrough will have a career like May's then he wouldn't be drafted at all.

The best college players often make ****ty pros, and there've been many outstanding pros were mediocre college players. It's two different games, and NBA scouts have gotten pretty good at figuring out which skills transfer and which do not.

 

[Stoney]

Heck, Kevin Love went in the top five last year. And I thought Hansbrough, at least at this stage of their careers, is a better player than Love. Oh well.

But they didn't enter the draft at the same "stage of their career". Love was drafted as a 19 year old, Hansbrough is a 22 year old senior. Those extra years make a big difference in how scouts evaluate a player. And Hansbrough was not better as a freshman than Love.

 

[prezclinton]

Mark, there is a long list of "great" college players who were busts in the NBA ... step too slow, an inch too short, not enough range, etc. etc.
I think Hansbrough will be a decent bench player in the NBA because he has ability and plays hard all the time. He'll be a good role player who will help a good team but he's not going to make a bad team significiantly better, as Blake Griffin can.

Griffin will make the Clips better, but how high is his ceiling? Josh Smith level? Certainly not Dwight Howard's level.

 

[Batman]

As for Hansbrough, see Redick, J.J. and Morrison, Adam.

Great college players who's game didn't roll over into the league. Happens all the time. Nothing rare about it.

In other words, he's a white guy

 

[Colton]

See Ferry, Danny.

(the Ron Harper trade still makes me want to reach for the barf bag. Gordon Gund took any chance the Cavaliers had against the great MJ teams and threw it in the ****ter. The trade of Harper allowed Jordan to rest on D because all he had to do to defend Ehlo was close out on the 3. As I covered all 6 games of the 1999-92 Eastern Conference Finals, that thought remained in the back of my cranium somewhere. Ugh)

 

[Philosopher]

OK, so how does a guy manage to dominate at that level, be player of the year and all, and have other players that don't accomplish as much rated higher?

Hansbrough is more skilled than the vast majority of college players he's facing, but he's not very athletic and he's going to have problems when he faces guys who are far more athletic and skilled than what he's faced in college.

I think Hansbrough will have a decent pro career, but he's not going to be more than a bench player or a borderline starter. You don't win championships by drafting bench players ... you win by swinging for the fences and trying to get a guy who has a chance to be a star.

Guys who tend to do well in the draft are athletic freaks. Skill can be taught/refined later, but you can't teach athleticism. Most famous draft day busts (like, say, Olowokandi) were fine athletic specimens who never learned to play basketball.

 

[Brooklyn Bridge]

Mike Tirico and Ryan Rusillo were just talking about the NBA draft and Rusillo's take is that teams are rather limited in how much they can change their roster because if they trade a player, many times they have to take a bad contract in return. Free Agency also favors players resiging with their current teams. So that leaves the draft and teams would rather take a chance at a player with more upside, then taking someone they know could be a decent/role player right away. e.g. Dwight Howard vs. Emeka Okafor a few years back.

 

[Webster]

He's a lot like Jamison -- very nifty under the basket and seems to barely get his shot off. The biggest difference being that he's not nearly the athlete or outside shooter that Jamison was.

 

[Cosmo]

OK, so how does a guy manage to dominate at that level, be player of the year and all, and have other players that don't accomplish as much rated higher?

Hansbrough is more skilled than the vast majority of college players he's facing, but he's not very athletic and he's going to have problems when he faces guys who are far more athletic and skilled than what he's faced in college.

I think Hansbrough will have a decent pro career, but he's not going to be more than a bench player or a borderline starter. You don't win championships by drafting bench players ... you win by swinging for the fences and trying to get a guy who has a chance to be a star.

Guys who tend to do well in the draft are athletic freaks. Skill can be taught/refined later, but you can't teach athleticism. Most famous draft day busts (like, say, Olowokandi) were fine athletic specimens who never learned to play basketball.

Problem is there isn't much of a chance to swing for the fences in this particular draft. The only "sure thing" is Griffin, and there's even questions about his offensive upside. Even drafting at No. 3, you've got a 50-50 shot of getting a total bust. So maybe you do draft for a specific need if you're in the 20s (No. 7 guy, 15 minutes, can get you some rebounds and defend.)