Iowa Caucus running thread

[DanOregon]

I'm predicting that whomever wins Iowa will win it with the lowest margin ever. Romney could win it and "lose" at the same time if he doesn't crack 25 percent.

Conventional wisdom is an oxymoron when it comes to the GOP primary (and I'm talking about the media's fascination with it, not the candidates) - I just don't think you can apply it with this primary field and the voting dynamics of the GOP today.

 

[Starman]

How does someone vote in the caucus if they have to work at night?

Don't you have to be present at a certain time to vote?

If you are the night walmar cashier, you don't get to to go the caucus. I am surprised that no one has filed some sort of lawsuit over this.

It's Iowa ... everybody's a farmer.

But you're right. There's really no way to "vote early." And I remember babysitters being in high demand on caucus night (we had to use one in 2004 and 2008).

This seems absolutely ripe for a lawsuit -- single mothers, night workers, those who rely on public transportation (ok scratch that one, it's iowa...) can all make a pretty clear case that they can't participate in this election. How has no one sued for this? Is it because these are party elections and not real federal elections?

The Republican Party is not an organ of the federal government. It can set whatever requirement it likes for people to vote.

Incidentally, single mothers, night workers, those who rely on public transportation are prime examples of people the Republican Party doesn't give a flying flaming jack-**** about.

"Just tell the maid to watch the children and have the chauffeur drive you to the caucuses in the Rolls" would be their suggested solution to the problem

 

[suburbia]

How does someone vote in the caucus if they have to work at night?

Don't you have to be present at a certain time to vote?

If you are the night walmar cashier, you don't get to to go the caucus. I am surprised that no one has filed some sort of lawsuit over this.

It's Iowa ... everybody's a farmer.

But you're right. There's really no way to "vote early." And I remember babysitters being in high demand on caucus night (we had to use one in 2004 and 2008).

This seems absolutely ripe for a lawsuit -- single mothers, night workers, those who rely on public transportation (ok scratch that one, it's iowa...) can all make a pretty clear case that they can't participate in this election. How has no one sued for this? Is it because these are party elections and not real federal elections?

It's that, plus the cost of a lawsuit - not cheap to begin with, and definitely not cheap when you're taking on the political establishment, which has corporations and other wealthy entities behind it. And it's not like this is a personal injury case where an attorney would take it on a contingency basis - you'd have to pay the attorney win or lose.

 

[JBHawkEye]

How does someone vote in the caucus if they have to work at night?

Don't you have to be present at a certain time to vote?

If you are the night walmar cashier, you don't get to to go the caucus. I am surprised that no one has filed some sort of lawsuit over this.

It's Iowa ... everybody's a farmer.

But you're right. There's really no way to "vote early." And I remember babysitters being in high demand on caucus night (we had to use one in 2004 and 2008).

I can't caucus tonight — I have a game to cover. Which is OK, I'm not really crazy about anyone in this group.

 

[Bob Cook]

Michelle Bachmann, showing the tin ear for sports that gets so many politicians into trouble, decides now is the time to link herself to Tim Tebow with the ad, "What do Tim Tebow and Michelle Bachmann have in common?" The ad doesn't say, "Both had inexplicable early victories before crapping the bed down the stretch."



The person who puts this together follows the NFL a little bit, though, at least enough to throw in a reference to the Suh stomp.

 

[The Big Ragu]

Michelle Bachmann, showing the tin ear for sports that gets so many politicians into trouble, decides now is the time to link herself to Tim Tebow with the ad, "What do Tim Tebow and Michelle Bachmann have in common?" The ad doesn't say, "Both had inexplicable early victories before crapping the bed down the stretch."



The person who puts this together follows the NFL a little bit, though, at least enough to throw in a reference to the Suh stomp.

Well, I know that personally the reason I hate on Tebow is that he doesn't kick his opponents while they're on the ground.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Michelle Bachmann, showing the tin ear for sports that gets so many politicians into trouble, decides now is the time to link herself to Tim Tebow with the ad, "What do Tim Tebow and Michelle Bachmann have in common?" The ad doesn't say, "Both had inexplicable early victories before crapping the bed down the stretch."



The person who puts this together follows the NFL a little bit, though, at least enough to throw in a reference to the Suh stomp.

Both will be done by the end of the week?

Neither can throw a pass?

 

[The Big Ragu]

Michelle Bachmann, showing the tin ear for sports that gets so many politicians into trouble, decides now is the time to link herself to Tim Tebow with the ad, "What do Tim Tebow and Michelle Bachmann have in common?" The ad doesn't say, "Both had inexplicable early victories before crapping the bed down the stretch."



The person who puts this together follows the NFL a little bit, though, at least enough to throw in a reference to the Suh stomp.

Both will be done by the end of the week?

Neither can throw a pass?

They are both living on a prayer?

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Neither has had sex in the last decade.

 

[The Big Ragu]

I think I saw a poll that showed Tebow ahead of Bachmann in Iowa, actually.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

I think I saw a poll that showed Tebow ahead of Bachmann in Iowa, actually.

Actually, he's down 10 points with about four minutes left...

 

[McNuggetsMan]

How does someone vote in the caucus if they have to work at night?

Don't you have to be present at a certain time to vote?

If you are the night walmar cashier, you don't get to to go the caucus. I am surprised that no one has filed some sort of lawsuit over this.

It's Iowa ... everybody's a farmer.

But you're right. There's really no way to "vote early." And I remember babysitters being in high demand on caucus night (we had to use one in 2004 and 2008).

This seems absolutely ripe for a lawsuit -- single mothers, night workers, those who rely on public transportation (ok scratch that one, it's iowa...) can all make a pretty clear case that they can't participate in this election. How has no one sued for this? Is it because these are party elections and not real federal elections?

The Republican Party is not an organ of the federal government. It can set whatever requirement it likes for people to vote.

Incidentally, single mothers, night workers, those who rely on public transportation are prime examples of people the Republican Party doesn't give a flying flaming jack-**** about.

"Just tell the maid to watch the children and have the chauffeur drive you to the caucuses in the Rolls" would be their suggested solution to the problem

So I guess the democrats don't care either since their caucus rules work the same way. But don't let logic and facts get in the way of your blind ideology.

But thanks for the answer to my question in your first sentence -- private entities can hold their elections as they see fit. It's sometimes confusing to remember that all these primaries actually aren't run by the government like a real election.

Didn't really need the partisan crap that spewed after that.

 

[YankeeFan]

So I guess the democrats don't care either since their caucus rules work the same way. But don't let logic and facts get in the way of your blind ideology.

They're even worse actually, with the 15% threshold to receive votes.

This anti-Iowa stuff is silly, if you're going to make it partisan. The "too white", "too rural", "too Christian" complaints are especially silly when you're talking about a GOP Primary. The GOP is white, rural, and Christian.

 

[Brooklyn Bridge]

I am so sick of all the freakin' coverage for the past month-good thing that liberal media doesn't have an agenda.

Who is the first out? Mitt? I think he wins and takes New Hampshire and has a lot of momentum.

Ron Paul? Might continue on to New Hampshire and he has plenty of crazy to back him up.

Newt? Escapes (barely) and hopes to scratch by unt SC.

Santor has enough support among EvangelicAls to come out in the top three.

Unfortunately, I think the clock strikes midnight for poor Michelle.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

The weirdest thing about the Iowa caucus rules for Republicans is that the vote for presidential nominee comes first, and only much later in the meeting do they actually elect delegates. It would be entirely possible to finish first in that vote and get no delegates because your supporters left early out of lack of knowledge of the rules, boredom, too old to stay up late, etc.

 

[Football_Bat]

I think as close as the polls have been in Iowa, Paul will win only because his followers are crazy-fanatical and will show up in force. I don't know what the Mitt threshold for success is — 20%?

 

[YankeeFan]

The weirdest thing about the Iowa caucus rules for Republicans is that the vote for presidential nominee comes first, and only much later in the meeting do they actually elect delegates. It would be entirely possible to finish first in that vote and get no delegates because your supporters left early out of lack of knowledge of the rules, boredom, too old to stay up late, etc.

Is it any different for the Dems?

They're voting for delegates to the convention, right? And, they're not bound.

 

[dixiehack]

Parties don't have absolute control over their primaries. Otherwise the all white primaries of yore couldn't have been struck down.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

YF, as I understand it, it is marginally different for the Democrats due to the really odd and awful lengthy winnowing process they go through in the voting, which I think is directly related to delegate apportionment, as why else do it?
Both parties' processes are ridiculous, so it's bipartisan loopy love of complexity for its own sake. The guy who invented NFL passer ratings must've been heavily involved in Iowa politics.
Dixie, primaries are elections and some U.S. and state laws apply. But here in Massachusetts, fer instance, the parties control who gets on the primary ballot, because they have a rule you have to get x percent of the vote for governor at the state party convention to qualify, and that's legal. So it's a mixed bag.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Bachmann will likely be the most damaged if she doesn't do well today. Huntsman is looking ahead to NH and Gingrich and Perry care more about South Carolina, so this isn't as important to them.