Galloping 2017 Triple Crown thread

[HanSenSE]

Kentucky Derby on Saturday ... gentlemen, start your thorobreds!

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Early lean - pending PP draw - is Classic Empire with Irish War Cry and Girvin.

 

[playthrough]

Looks like the weather will be good come post time but the Oaks might be sloppy on Friday.

 

[Huggy]

My brother, who can read the ink off a Racing Form, says he is leaning towards McCracken

 

[cisforkoke]

My brother, who can read the ink off a Racing Form, says he is leaning towards McCracken

Is his name Phil?

 

[Fly]

My brother, who can read the ink off a Racing Form, says he is leaning towards McCracken

The jockey...

 

[Songbird]

Does Mike Smith have a mount?

 

[Songbird]

My brother, who can read the ink off a Racing Form, says he is leaning towards McCracken

Talked to a guy at the Meadowlands on New Year's Eve who said McCracken is this year's beast.

 

[SnarkShark]

Win pick: Irish War Cry -- Ran one bad race and bounced back to win the Wood Memorial impressively. Depending on draw, gets the trip that wins the modern Derby. Should be around 7-1 or 8-1.

Longshot pick: Battle of Midway. Did all the dirty work in the Santa Anita Derby on the front end and still dug in late to hit the board.

Horses to play against: Gormley -- got perfect trip in a slow Santa Anita Derby and won by default. Girvin -- will be racing with a quarter crack in the race and his young trainer has not handled the media pressure well for his first Derby starter. Irap -- broke through to win the Blue Grass as a maiden. Might be a lightbulb, experience, but probably isn't that good.

 

[Huggy]

The jockey...

You can't put a bounty on a man's head

 

[da man]

Talked to a guy at the Meadowlands on New Year's Eve who said McCracken is this year's beast.

This guy says the horse can do.

 

[Songbird]

This guy says the horse can do.

That horse didn't talk either.

 

[playthrough]

Win pick: Irish War Cry -- Ran one bad race and bounced back to win the Wood Memorial impressively. Depending on draw, gets the trip that wins the modern Derby. Should be around 7-1 or 8-1.

Longshot pick: Battle of Midway. Did all the dirty work in the Santa Anita Derby on the front end and still dug in late to hit the board.

Horses to play against: Gormley -- got perfect trip in a slow Santa Anita Derby and won by default. Girvin -- will be racing with a quarter crack in the race and his young trainer has not handled the media pressure well for his first Derby starter. Irap -- broke through to win the Blue Grass as a maiden. Might be a lightbulb, experience, but probably isn't that good.

Quality analysis. Please tell me you typed that while chewing on a cigar.

 

[Huggy]

Quality analysis. Please tell me you typed that while chewing on a cigar.

With a Racing Form jammed in the pocket of a sports jacket bought in 1972

 

[Captain_Kirk]

With a Racing Form jammed in the pocket of a sports jacket bought in 1972

Hopefully with a mustard stain on the lapel and bourbon stains on the sleeves.

 

[Huggy]

After exiting a model of car Ford stopped making 40 years ago

 

[SnarkShark]

I'm a very different demographic.

 

[Buck]

Win pick: Irish War Cry -- Ran one bad race and bounced back to win the Wood Memorial impressively. Depending on draw, gets the trip that wins the modern Derby. Should be around 7-1 or 8-1.

Longshot pick: Battle of Midway. Did all the dirty work in the Santa Anita Derby on the front end and still dug in late to hit the board.

Horses to play against: Gormley -- got perfect trip in a slow Santa Anita Derby and won by default. Girvin -- will be racing with a quarter crack in the race and his young trainer has not handled the media pressure well for his first Derby starter. Irap -- broke through to win the Blue Grass as a maiden. Might be a lightbulb, experience, but probably isn't that good.

Who would you put in a tri-box with Irish War Cry? What about a tri-box with McCracken and Classic Empire?

 

[SnarkShark]

Who would you put in a tri-box with Irish War Cry? What about a tri-box with McCracken and Classic Empire?

I'm not a big tri/exacta guy -- I make my nut on multi-race wagers, like Pick 4s and Pick 5s -- but I know a few people who make their living off them.

I'd toss in some better prices. Could that tri hit? Sure. But those are three of the five favored horses and although the Derby has been formful in recent years, it's more often chaotic. If you toss in horses like Battle of Midway or Hence -- or you can even key horses underneath that figure to pass tiring horses late but likely won't be in contention to win, like Sonneteer -- you're looking at really big scores.

The way win with tris and supers is keying longshots in spots rather than selecting who you think are the three/four likely winners. A horse who doesn't win but is capable of running underneath -- especially in a tiring race like the Derby -- is where it's at.

All that being said, if you're investing $6 in a tri box for entertainment, there's nothing wrong with selecting who you think are the best horses. I'm just not a huge fan of McCraken.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Battle of Midway is a tempting thought. We'll see after post draw.