Galloping 2017 Triple Crown thread

[SnarkShark]

Field has drawn:

1. Lookin at Lee
2. Thunder Snow
3. Fast and Accurate
4. Untrapped
5. Always Dreaming
6. State of Honor
7. Girvin
8. Hence
9. Irap
10. Gunnevera
11. Battle of Midway
12. Sonneteer
13. J Boys Echo
14. Classic Empire
15. McCraken
16. Tapwrit
17. Irish War Cry
18. Gormley
19. Practical Joke
20. Patch

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Field has drawn:

1. Lookin at Lee
2. Thunder Snow
3. Fast and Accurate
4. Untrapped
5. Always Dreaming
6. State of Honor
7. Girvin
8. Hence
9. Irap
10. Gunnevera
11. Battle of Midway
12. Sonneteer
13. J Boys Echo
14. Classic Empire
15. McCraken
16. Tapwrit
17. Irish War Cry
18. Gormley
19. Practical Joke
20. Patch

Morning line yet?

 

[SnarkShark]

Morning line yet?

Classic Empire 4-1, Always Dreaming and McCraken 5-1, Irish War Cry 6-1. Stopped paying attention after that.

 

[trifectarich]

I'm more likely to leave out McCracken than put him in my exotics. While he wasn't plodding down the stretch of his last race, I also didn't see anything that indicated a longer race is up his alley. I'll definitely have Thunder Snow in my combinations.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Battle of Midway 30-1. Live longshot odds for a live longshot. Decent post position. Maybe worth a sawbuck on the nose to supplement exotics.

 

[SnarkShark]

I'm more likely to leave out McCracken than put him in my exotics. While he wasn't plodding down the stretch of his last race, I also didn't see anything that indicated a longer race is up his alley. I'll definitely have Thunder Snow in my combinations.

I generally agree. I think the races McCraken has run are probably too slow. Only thing that worries me is that he won his first three races at Churchill and he has every right to improve off the Bluegrass, a race he needed and wasn't all-out to win.

Not a fan of Thunder Snow's post. I think the horse is super talented, but also not sure he really wants dirt, either.

 

[SnarkShark]

For the copy editors out there for the weekend... It's McCraken, not McCracken.

 

[trifectarich]

For the copy editors out there for the weekend... It's McCraken, not McCracken.

Oops.

 

[SnarkShark]

Oops.

Common mistake. Will be interesting to see how many desks it gets through this week.

 

[HanSenSE]

For the copy editors out there for the weekend... It's McCraken, not McCracken.

Copy editors? What are these things copy editors of which you speak?

 

[playthrough]

I'm not a big tri/exacta guy -- I make my nut on multi-race wagers, like Pick 4s and Pick 5s -- but I know a few people who make their living off them.

I'd toss in some better prices. Could that tri hit? Sure. But those are three of the five favored horses and although the Derby has been formful in recent years, it's more often chaotic. If you toss in horses like Battle of Midway or Hence -- or you can even key horses underneath that figure to pass tiring horses late but likely won't be in contention to win, like Sonneteer -- you're looking at really big scores.

The way win with tris and supers is keying longshots in spots rather than selecting who you think are the three/four likely winners. A horse who doesn't win but is capable of running underneath -- especially in a tiring race like the Derby -- is where it's at.

All that being said, if you're investing $6 in a tri box for entertainment, there's nothing wrong with selecting who you think are the best horses. I'm just not a huge fan of McCraken.

Like you said, it hasn't happened recently, but some tri/supers a few years back were astronomical.

 

[trifectarich]

Calling all mudders? Rain in Louisville coming down now and is expected for most of Friday afternoon; Saturday's forecast calls for a 90 percent chance of rain.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Like you said, it hasn't happened recently, but some tri/supers a few years back were astronomical.

I'm an exotics player. When they hit, it makes up for all the misses.

That said, Gunnevera and J Boys Echo are looking good for those plays.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Good stuff here.

http://deadspin.com/railbirds-of-a-feather-john-scheinman-hits-the-board-w-1794961406

And the article it referenced.

Andrew Beyer: Rebel With A Cause - Horse Racing News | Paulick Report

 

[dixiehack]

Track may dry out yet.

Weather forecast for Kentucky Derby 2017 is improving

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Commentators on the NBCSPN broadcast yesterday were noting that even though the track was wet, early speed was having a very good day. Make of that what you will.

 

[dixiehack]

Kinda dig Gunnevera, although less so at 9-1

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Narrowed down to 8, 10, 13, 14, 15, 17 and 18. Maybe 1 depending on the track.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Glad to see you've eliminated 60 percent of the field.
5-2-11 tri for me, probably do more than one combination because it's not necessarily in that order and a win-place on 11 as my longshot. It's only money.

 

[dixiehack]

8-1 is a helluva price for Classic Empire