ESPN's Brad Edwards projects Boise State will be No. 1 in the BCS next week

[Steak Snabler]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5673225

Edwards projects the unbeaten Broncos, the highest-ranked team from a non-automatic qualifying conference, as the top team in the standings by a comfortable margin, followed by Oregon. The top two teams in the final regular-season BCS standings play in the BCS National Championship Game.

Fellow BCS buster TCU places third in Edwards' projections, followed by Oklahoma at .8425 and Ohio State at .8421.

Edwards explained that although the Buckeyes are No. 1 in the two polls the BCS uses -- the Harris and the USA Today coaches' poll -- they're deemed 10th-best by the BCS computer rankings, due in part to the Buckeyes' strength of schedule to date compared to the other unbeaten teams. The computers do not take margin of victory into consideration.

Boise State rated higher because the Broncos are third in the Harris and USA Today polls and second in the BCS computer ranking, Edwards said. But he also noted Boise State has already played the toughest part of its schedule, while Ohio State and the other top 10 teams from automatic qualifying conferences face tougher competition in the weeks ahead.

"Though this is exactly what the BCS standings would look like if they came out today, this is not an indication of what they will look like several weeks from now if all these teams keep winning," Edwards said.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Please let it be true. Please let it be true.

This season has had just enough of a crazy start for this to be the year that a Boise State or a TCU, or possibly both, to reach the BCS title game.

 

[Steak Snabler]

Edwards has always been spot-on with his projections, so I don't doubt his accuracy. But as he said, the fact that Boise has already played its toughest games will probably cause its computer rankings to drop steadily each week.

 

[spnited]

"Though this is exactly what the BCS standings would look like if they came out today, this is not an indication of what they will look like several weeks from now if all these teams keep winning," Edwards said.


Translation: This means absolutely nothing.

 

[trifectarich]

I don't know much, but I do know the computer ranking that currently has Alabama 10th is a joke.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

I don't know much, but I do know the computer ranking that currently has Alabama 10th is a joke.

I guess I'm not the only person who thinks if Bama wins out they still wind up in Glendale.

 

[Steak Snabler]

I don't know much, but I do know the computer ranking that currently has Alabama 10th is a joke.

I guess I'm not the only person who thinks if Bama wins out they still wind up in Glendale.

They will probably have to have beaten three Top 10 (if not Top 5) teams to get there --- LSU, Auburn, South Carolina/Florida, so you might be right. But if Ohio State, Oregon and/or the Oklahoma-Nebraska winner are still unbeaten, it's going to be tough for Bama to jump two of the three in the human polls.

 

[Oz]

I don't know much, but I do know the computer ranking that currently has Alabama 10th is a joke.

I'm not so sure sure it's a joke given how Alabama was dominated from start to finish in a 14-point loss. Physically, this Tide team doesn't look anywhere near as imposing as last year's version -- even in the Arkansas game. And the best running back on the field Saturday wasn't the one with the Heisman Trophy; he played for the Gamecocks.

Remember when Alabama beat Penn State 24-3? Doesn't that seem like a weak score now, knowing Penn State owns the worst offense on the Big Ten and lost 33-13 to Illinois on Saturday?

Remember when Alabama beat Florida 31-6? Well, given how the Gators own the 96th-ranked offense nationally, that game doesn't hold the same weight we all thought it would when the season began.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

I think Boise State will run the table. I don't know about TCU.

I still think it will be SEC Champ against Big 10 or Big 12 Champ in the BCS title game, even if those teams all have one loss.

 

[Steak Snabler]

And the best running back on the field Saturday wasn't the one with the Heisman Trophy; he played for the Gamecocks.

There's no way to say that definitively. Alabama had to pretty much abandon the running game when it got down 21-3 in the second quarter.

 

[Oz]

And the best running back on the field Saturday wasn't the one with the Heisman Trophy; he played for the Gamecocks.

There's no way to say that definitively. Alabama had to pretty much abandon the running game when it got down 21-3 in the second quarter.

Alabama didn't abandon its running game down 20-7 late in the third quarter in Arkansas and finished with 227 yards on the ground, most of it late. I don't buy that the Tide absolutely had to abandon the running game to win, but you are right, they did abandon it.

 

[Steak Snabler]

And the best running back on the field Saturday wasn't the one with the Heisman Trophy; he played for the Gamecocks.

There's no way to say that definitively. Alabama had to pretty much abandon the running game when it got down 21-3 in the second quarter.

Alabama didn't abandon its running game down 20-7 late in the third quarter in Arkansas and finished with 227 yards on the ground, most of it late. I don't buy that the Tide absolutely had to abandon the running game to win, but you are right, they did abandon it.

It's a matter of opinion, I guess. But Lattimore wasn't the reason South Carolina won that game. It was, in order:

1a. USC QB Stephen Garcia playing the best game, by far, of his career.
1b. USC WR Alshon Jeffery owning the Tide secondary
2. Alabama's defense falling apart at all the key moments
3. Alabama's special teams --- shanked a punt to give USC a short field early, missed an extra point and a makeable field goal, botched a fake field goal

Lattimore's a very good --- potentially great --- back and he certainly outplayed Ingram and Richardson on Saturday. But to say he's a better player at this point is jumping the gun.

 

[Oz]

Lattimore's a very good --- potentially great --- back and he certainly outplayed Ingram and Richardson on Saturday. But to say he's a better player at this point is jumping the gun.

Never said Lattimore was a better player, period. Simply said Lattimore was the better running back Saturday. There is a difference.

Alabama probably has two losses right now if Arkansas has a Lattimore to help close the game.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

The truth of the matter is that the SEC is so brutal in this year and most years that running the table is next to impossible.

 

[Pancamo]

The truth of the matter is that the SEC is so brutal in this year and most years that running the table is next to impossible.

Brutal? The East Division is a steaming pile of ****. Georgia, Kentucky, Vandy and UT are dog****. UF has no offense and until South Carolina rolls out a season that isn't 7-6 it is still South Carolina.

 

[mb]

Unless Auburn or LSU run the table (and neither is happening), the SEC is out of the national title game picture, barring mass chaos.

And I'm not sure the SEC has a team good enough to finish with just one loss this year.

/promise to change my tune if the chickens run the table
//knows it won't happen in my lifetime

 

[Armchair_QB]

"Though this is exactly what the BCS standings would look like if they came out today, this is not an indication of what they will look like several weeks from now if all these teams keep winning," Edwards said.


Translation: This means absolutely nothing.

Yep.

All this does is give the anti-BCS folks false ammo for the argument that the system is rigged to keep the little guy down, conveniently ignoring the fact that if a team's schedule is front-loaded the SOS has nowhere to go but down. Which is exactly what will happen the SOS of Boise (and a lot of BCS conference teams as well but you won't hear anybody make that point).

That said, Boise does still have Nevada on its schedule and if the Wolf Pack keep winning Boise should get a bump from that game if they're able to win it. It will also be interesting to see if TCU's SOS surpasses Boise's. Utah should still be a Top 10 team when the Frogs play them.

 

[Blitz]

The new (post 1992) SEC has always shared the wealth among its members and championed the merits/accomplishments of all 12 whenever some school does something new.
When you develop an entity like what the SEC is now, you will be filthy rich but you won't always be able to have someone in the NCAA title game. Not while carrying 2 losses.
National organizers will always find a way to push you out of the title picture with two or more losses.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Unless Auburn or LSU run the table (and neither is happening), the SEC is out of the national title game picture, barring mass chaos.

And I'm not sure the SEC has a team good enough to finish with just one loss this year.

/promise to change my tune if the chickens run the table
//knows it won't happen in my lifetime

If I'm not mistaken, it's happened twice since 1992.

 

[nmmetsfan]

I'd love to see every major conference winner with two losses and Boise State along with TCU/Utah go undefeated. Somehow I'm guessing the mid-majors would still be left out.