College football 2018 Week 13 thread

[Steak Snabler]

The biggest games and lines for Week 13. All times Eastern and all point spreads via Vegas Insider.

Thursday

Mississippi State (-10) at Ole Miss, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Friday

Houston (+7.5) at Memphis, noon, ABC

Nebraska (+7.5) at Iowa, noon, Fox

Arkansas (+21) at Missouri, 2:30 p.m., CBS

Virginia (-4) at Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Central Florida (-14.5) at South Florida, 4:15 p.m., ESPN

Oregon (-14) at Oregon State, 4 p.m., Fox Sports 1

Oklahoma (pick ’em) at West Virginia, 8 p.m., ESPN

Washington (+3.5) at Washington State, 8:30 p.m., Fox

Saturday

Florida (-4) at Florida State, noon, ABC

Michigan (-3.5) at Ohio State, noon, Fox

Syracuse at Boston College, noon, ESPN (no line yet due to Syracuse QB injury)

Georgia Tech (+17) at Georgia, noon, SEC Network

Marshall (+1.5) at FIU, noon, Stadium Video

N.C. State (-6) at North Carolina, 12:20 p.m., ACC Network

Troy (+10.5) at Appalachian State, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+

Stanford (-5.5) at UCLA, 3 p.m., Pac-12 Network

Maryland (+13.5) at Penn State, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Auburn (+24.5) at Alabama, 3:30 p.m., CBS

Arizona State (-2) at Arizona, 3:30 p.m., Fox Sports 1

Pittsburgh (+5) at Miami, 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Tennessee at Vanderbilt, 4 p.m., SEC Network (no line yet due to Tennessee QB injury)

LSU (pick ’em) at Texas A&M, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network

Notre Dame (-10.5) at USC, 8 p.m., ABC

South Carolina (+25) at Clemson, 7 p.m., ESPN

BYU (+13.5) at Utah, 10 p.m., Fox Sports 1

Utah State (+3) at Boise State, 10:15 p.m., ESPN

 

[Chef2]

Do or die for Kingsbury this week.
Lose and he's gone.

 

[Steak Snabler]

I read somewhere if the line stays like it is, it will be the first time Ohio State has been a home underdog in Meyer's tenure.

 

[BTExpress]

Tennessee at Vanderbilt, 4 p.m., SEC Network (no line yet due to Tennessee QB injury)

They have it backward. Tennessee QB injury is due to "no line."

 

[poindexter]

I'm gonna be in Vegas on Friday. I'm doing the IU over, based on what I've read here.

 

[Big Circus]

Strange times when the Hoos are favored in Blacksburg. I'll believe it when I see it. I haven't been emotionally invested in the game since the Mike London timeout fiasco in 2012 and see no reason to change that this year.

Now, for my long psychoanalysis post that only @Cosmo and @tapintoamerica will care about:

UVA is always its own worst enemy when playing VT. If the Hoos can play hard and execute, they should have a good chance of winning. If they're chippy and overhyped, they won't win. The coaching staff needs to have a good game for the first time in literally a decade (2008, when Al Groh put Vic Hall at QB, surprised Bud Foster and nearly stole a win in Blacksburg against a much better team). Since then, the UVA coaches have come up short in every game.

This year, my main worry is the chippy attitude that came out in last year's two worst games (vs. VT and the bowl ****show against Navy). Bronco has been very public about the VT game all year long, and I wonder if that's an effort to release some tension and allow the coaches' sphincters to unclench when the game starts.

Speaking of coaching...I read a good Hokie analysis of last year's game with the takeaway that UVA telegraphed its plays on offense so blatantly as to basically do Bud's job for him. They showed VT shifts right before the snap that blew up everything UVA did. The analysis didn't go so far as to state it as an absolute, but suggested very strongly that UVA's particular personnel packages and formation told Bud exactly what the playcall was going to be. My hope is that we've improved in that regard since last year, but again, I'll believe it when I see it. I will never feel good about Robert Anae against Bud. Hokies aren't loaded with talent and have given up a ton of yards and points, but this is UVA-VT, and UVA is going on 10 years of doing exactly what Bud wants on offense.

Positives: Generally speaking, VT has had trouble with mobile QBs this year. Also generally speaking, their defense is fast and aggressive on the outside and will attack the A gaps big-time. If UVA can get downhill in the B or C gaps, they can move the ball. This is a game where properly read and operated read option could be the key.

The Hokie offense is very inconsistent, but can get yards up the middle. I was glad to see Eli Hanback and Dylan Thompson play so well for UVA against Georgia Tech. They'll need to do that again. Damon Hazelton is by far the best VT playmaker, and Bryce Hall needs to live up to his reputation for UVA to have a chance.

UVA special teams are mostly very good now. I think the breakdowns against GT (safety punt return for touchdown, punt hitting a UVA player for a turnover, Delaney biffing the tying FG in overtime) were aberrations. This should be a strength for UVA.

The Hokie locker room seems to be a mess, while UVA's seems to be pretty good to excellent. I don't think it's a coincidence that Bronco has been so positive after a tough loss. He's bringing his crew along and should have them in the right mindset. Fuente does not appear to have his team on the same page. UVA is at risk of having the hype overwhelm its focus. VT is feeling the pressure of preserving its bowl streak.

Hokies looked like world-beaters after the FSU game, but have been mediocre to terrible since. Turns out FSU is as bad as it's been in years. I don't think it's an insult to say that VT lucked into a win at UNC, without which they'd be a 7-loss team whose only "good" win was against Duke. They've lost four in a row, three in blowouts. They're not good.

UVA is also mediocre, but at the higher end of mediocre, and has a rare opportunity this year. It's not often that they've been the better team, but this year, they are, and they're better coached to boot. I hated how UVA's players behaved at the end of last year. Hated it. They're the better team. If they can be confident and act like it, they can win.

 

[Cosmo]

Not at all unfair to say Tech backed into the UNC win. Hokies did not deserve to win that one.

Honestly, if UVa bottles up Peoples and limits Hazelton to reasonable production, the Cavs should win. Tech's defense is injured and abysmal right now.

 

[amraeder]

Is TAMU really a pick'em vs LSU?
That seems...odd, unless there's LSU-related injuries I don't know about.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Ohio St. getting points at home, especially against Jim Harbaugh, is too good to turn down. I realize my prediction record would have to improve mightily to even get to "mixed" but I have not felt this strongly about a football game in some time.

 

[Cosmo]

UVa will not make any players available for interviews this week. Players' choice, according to the RTD.

 

[playthrough]

Ohio St. getting points at home, especially against Jim Harbaugh, is too good to turn down. I realize my prediction record would have to improve mightily to even get to "mixed" but I have not felt this strongly about a football game in some time.

I would agree. And I think the line has already moved to 4 in some spots.

 

[playthrough]

I'm gonna be in Vegas on Friday. I'm doing the IU over, based on what I've read here.

Check your messages and get your saddlebags ready.

 

[Batman]

Is TAMU really a pick'em vs LSU?
That seems...odd, unless there's LSU-related injuries I don't know about.

LSU was minus-1 when I saw it last night, and they are on the road, but either way it's surprising. Figured that line would be around a touchdown. I'm ready to jump on it.
Same with Florida minus-4 at Florida State. Its win over Boston College notwithstanding, Florida State still sucks, right?

Other games that jumped out at me:
• Northwestern minus-18 vs. Illinois
• Kentucky minus-17 1/2 at Louisville
• Georgia minus-17 vs. Georgia Tech
• Rutgers plus-27 1/2 at Michigan State - Rutgers has been sneaky good against the spread the past month while facing some teams in the top half of the Big Ten. Four straight covers against lines of 20 points or more. Most of them have been at home, but getting 27 points vs. a Michigan State team that can't score points (12 total the last two games, and no more than 24 in any of its last seven games) has me ready to jump on it.

 

[tapintoamerica]

UVa will not make any players available for interviews this week. Players' choice, according to the RTD.

Sounds like Soviet elections.

 

[tapintoamerica]

LSU was minus-1 when I saw it last night, and they are on the road, but either way it's surprising. Figured that line would be around a touchdown. I'm ready to jump on it.
Same with Florida minus-4 at Florida State. Its win over Boston College notwithstanding, Florida State still sucks, right?

Other games that jumped out at me:
• Northwestern minus-18 vs. Illinois
• Kentucky minus-17 1/2 at Louisville
• Georgia minus-17 vs. Georgia Tech
• Rutgers plus-27 1/2 at Michigan State - Rutgers has been sneaky good against the spread the past month while facing some teams in the top half of the Big Ten. Four straight covers against lines of 20 points or more. Most of them have been at home, but getting 27 points vs. a Michigan State team that can't score points (12 total the last two games, and no more than 24 in any of its last seven games) has me ready to jump on it.

If I were a gambler, I’d take Kentucky to cover against University-6, the first team in ACC history to allow 50 or more points in six or more games in a season.

 

[BitterYoungMatador2]

Miami wedged between an emotional Coastal clincher at Wake and the ACC championship game has boner written all over it.

Prepaid Abortions U by 17.

 

[HappyCurmudgeon]

In both the LSU and Florida lines you have cases where they have quarterbacks you can't trust with big lines. Joe Burrow has certainly had his moments but the LSU offense isn't one you can count on from game to game.

And Feleipe Franks...well you really don't know what you are getting game to game. He seems more confident but that really doesn't mean ****.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Nobody on the Arkansas roster is allowed to score.

Arkansas suspends two starters, reportedly for socializing with Mississippi State cheerleaders

 

[Chef2]

Nobody on the Arkansas roster is allowed to score.

Arkansas suspends two starters, reportedly for socializing with Mississippi State cheerleaders

Substitute football game for family reunion, and you have a down south tradition right there.

 

[murphyc]

I will readily admit my bias, but to me what's happened in Pullman this year has been the best story of the year in college football. I would have been happy with 6 wins, given all that happened in the off-season. Heck, 0-12 with no more suicides would have been fine. To be 10-1 (should be 11-0) with a shot at the top 4 with a likely Heisman finalist who wasn't a Coug until barely six months ago is just about impossible to imagine.