College Football 2015 Week 12 thread

[Steak Snabler]

The most interesting games and lines for Week 12. As always, all times Eastern and all point spreads from ESPN's college football odds page:

Michigan (-4.5) at Penn State, noon, ABC

North Carolina (-7) at Virginia Tech, noon, ESPN

Memphis (-2.5) at Temple, noon, ESPNU

Michigan State (+13) at Ohio State, 3:30 p.m., ABC

LSU (+4.5) at Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m., CBS

UCLA (+3) at Utah, 3:30 p.m., Fox

USC (+5) at Oregon, 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Arizona at Arizona State, 3:30 p.m., Fox Sports 1 (no line due to multiple Arizona injuries)

Northwestern (+10.5) at Wisconsin, 3:30 p.m., Big Ten Network

Mississippi State (+3.5) at Arkansas, 7 p.m., ESPN

Georgia Southern (+14.5) at Georgia, 7 p.m., ESPNU

Baylor (+1.5) at Oklahoma State, 7:30 p.m., Fox

Texas A&M (-7) at Vanderbilt, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network

Boston College (+16.5) vs. Notre Dame (at Fenway Park, Boston), 7:30 p.m., NBC Sports Network

TCU at Oklahoma, 8 p.m., ABC (no line due to Trevone Boykin injury)

Cal (+12.5) at Stanford, 10:30 p.m., ESPN

 

[Dick Whitman]

Bet the house on Michigan State and Wisconsin.

 

[Layman]

I can't understand that Ohio State number. At all. MAYBE if Cook can't play. But even then....

 

[Michael_ Gee]

It has to be based on the assumption Cook either won't play or will be ineffective if he does. But then why isn't it a no line?

 

[Batman]

Georgia's only a 14 1/2-point favorite at home against a Sun Belt school?
I know Georgia Southern's decent, but really? Georgia's still a seven-win SEC team. That's either a massive trap laid by Vegas or the easiest money you'll make all week.

 

[YorksArcades]

Georgia's still a seven-win SEC team.

The narrative. I bet those wins were against some real powerhouses.

The week Ga. played Fla., I think Rutgers could have rolled Ga.

 

[exmediahack]

I love Michigan, Memphis and Northwestern, especially that Memphis play.

If their FG slides over a foot at Houston, they're probably a 10 point favorite at Temple.

If Cook is the QB, I really like Sparty and the points.

 

[TyWebb]

Georgia's only a 14 1/2-point favorite at home against a Sun Belt school?
I know Georgia Southern's decent, but really? Georgia's still a seven-win SEC team. That's either a massive trap laid by Vegas or the easiest money you'll make all week.

Have you watched Georgia's offense lately? Without Chubb and with Schottenheimer calling the plays, it has been a comedy of errors. Third and 41 was an actual thing that happened on Saturday.

 

[exmediahack]

I had Georgia and caught a rare winner with them but each time they showed the cutaway of Young Schottenheimer, I felt a little more sick.

 

[JackReacher]

Michigan, Memphis, NW, A&M for sure.

Mayyyyybe Notre Dame.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Sorry to interrupt the gambling discussion, but I'd be remiss not to mention the unbelievably snotty column by Marc Tracy in the Times today. He snarked at every team he regarded as not having won with a performance up to his standards, which was all of them with one exception, and concluded by saying Alabama was the only team that deserves to be in the playoffs. Its loss was a "fluke." Clemson beating Syracuse by 10 means Clemson sucks.

 

[Steak Snabler]

Nothing against Tracy, but I don't know that the NY Times is my go-to for deep college football analysis.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Mine either, but this one was remarkable for its unwarranted tone. Usually, I just read their stuff on New York teams.

 

[YorksArcades]

concluded by saying Alabama was the only team that deserves to be in the playoffs. Its loss was a "fluke."

The narrative, alive even in NYC.

 

[Captain_Kirk]

Have you watched Georgia's offense lately? Without Chubb and with Schottenheimer calling the plays, it has been a comedy of errors. Third and 41 was an actual thing that happened on Saturday.

From your intrepid Georgia Southern reporter:

Georgia Southern's last four games against big boy opponents:

Beat Florida
Lost to NC State by 1. Fumbled at the goal line ahead deep in the 2nd half, and State drove the field for the win
Lost to Ga Tech by 4. Questionable forward lateral call with the lead in Ga Tech territory ended up costing them the game
Lost to West by God 44-0 this year.

Last trip to Athens they were down 10-7 with a minute to go in the first half at the UGA 2 yd line (was at this game). Chop block penalty, then a missed FG, then UGA scored a TD and it was 17-7 at the half, and the flood gates opened in the 2nd half.

This year's team isn't as good as the ones that were close in the first 3 games noted above. But, UGA isn't very good either. Maybe this year's WV game is an indicator, but I'd be inclined to take the 14 and a hook.

Tough game for me: one son is a Georgia Southern grad; the other a UGA freshman. Probably won't share with the younger I'm probably going to pull for the Eagles, but don't think he would be surprised either.

 

[JackReacher]

Bowling Green is laying 7 at home against Toldeo, tonight, I think. Is this the week to bet against BG?

 

[Steak Snabler]

From your intrepid Georgia Southern reporter:

Georgia Southern's last four games against big boy opponents:

Beat Florida
Lost to NC State by 1. Fumbled at the goal line ahead deep in the 2nd half, and State drove the field for the win
Lost to Ga Tech by 4. Questionable forward lateral call with the lead in Ga Tech territory ended up costing them the game
Lost to West by God 44-0 this year.

Last trip to Athens they were down 10-7 with a minute to go in the first half at the UGA 2 yd line (was at this game). Chop block penalty, then a missed FG, then UGA scored a TD and it was 17-7 at the half, and the flood gates opened in the 2nd half.

This year's team isn't as good as the ones that were close in the first 3 games noted above. But, UGA isn't very good either. Maybe this year's WV game is an indicator, but I'd be inclined to take the 14 and a hook.

Tough game for me: one son is a Georgia Southern grad; the other a UGA freshman. Probably won't share with the younger I'm probably going to pull for the Eagles, but don't think he would be surprised either.

GSU also ran for 302 yards and scored 21 points against Alabama in 2011 (no one else that year ran for more than 148 or scored more than 14). Many who observe that program — including me — consider that 2011 Alabama defense to be even better than this year's unit (and among the best of all-time in college football). There were something like 16 future NFL players on that Alabama defense, including first-round draft picks Dont'a Hightower, Dre Kirkpatrick, C.J. Mosley, Dee Milliner, Mark Barron and HaHa Clinton-Dix.

But like you said, GSU's not as good now as they were then. Still, I expect them to give Georgia a game.

 

[TyWebb]

From your intrepid Georgia Southern reporter:

Georgia Southern's last four games against big boy opponents:

Beat Florida
Lost to NC State by 1. Fumbled at the goal line ahead deep in the 2nd half, and State drove the field for the win
Lost to Ga Tech by 4. Questionable forward lateral call with the lead in Ga Tech territory ended up costing them the game
Lost to West by God 44-0 this year.

Last trip to Athens they were down 10-7 with a minute to go in the first half at the UGA 2 yd line (was at this game). Chop block penalty, then a missed FG, then UGA scored a TD and it was 17-7 at the half, and the flood gates opened in the 2nd half.

This year's team isn't as good as the ones that were close in the first 3 games noted above. But, UGA isn't very good either. Maybe this year's WV game is an indicator, but I'd be inclined to take the 14 and a hook.

Tough game for me: one son is a Georgia Southern grad; the other a UGA freshman. Probably won't share with the younger I'm probably going to pull for the Eagles, but don't think he would be surprised either.

At least you got it right with your second son.

I kid, I kid.

 

[hondo]

From your intrepid Georgia Southern reporter:

Georgia Southern's last four games against big boy opponents:

Beat Florida
Lost to NC State by 1. Fumbled at the goal line ahead deep in the 2nd half, and State drove the field for the win
Lost to Ga Tech by 4. Questionable forward lateral call with the lead in Ga Tech territory ended up costing them the game
Lost to West by God 44-0 this year.

Last trip to Athens they were down 10-7 with a minute to go in the first half at the UGA 2 yd line (was at this game). Chop block penalty, then a missed FG, then UGA scored a TD and it was 17-7 at the half, and the flood gates opened in the 2nd half.

This year's team isn't as good as the ones that were close in the first 3 games noted above. But, UGA isn't very good either. Maybe this year's WV game is an indicator, but I'd be inclined to take the 14 and a hook.

Tough game for me: one son is a Georgia Southern grad; the other a UGA freshman. Probably won't share with the younger I'm probably going to pull for the Eagles, but don't think he would be surprised either.

One little flaw ... Hardly any kids on this year's team played on those teams. One of the more pointless things to claim when handicapping a winner is something like, "they've beaten this team at home the last seven trips." Well, some of the kids on this year's team might have played in that home game two years ago. Before that, hardly any of them (current seniors who played as freshmen).
Past history doesn't mean much in college ball.

 

[YorksArcades]

One little flaw ... Hardly any kids on this year's team played on those teams. One of the more pointless things to claim when handicapping a winner is something like, "they've beaten this team at home the last seven trips." Well, some of the kids on this year's team might have played in that home game two years ago. Before that, hardly any of them (current seniors who played as freshmen).
Past history doesn't mean much in college ball.

And yet that never stops most from citing it.

The narrative thrived on that B.S. for several years. Of course, now that the tide has turned (pun intended), we're not supposed to care about the previous year's bowl games.