2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Running Thread

[Driftwood]

It's that time of year again.

 

[Driftwood]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurr...ged-hurricane-season-possible-in-2024/1623587

While the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially start until June 1, there are already “serious and growing concerns” about the impending season, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.
There are two key factors that have AccuWeather forecasters sounding the early warning of a potentially super-charged season: The return of La Niña and historically warm water across the Atlantic Ocean.

 

[Neutral Corner]

Well, we're off the races. Wheee!

 

[BTExpress]

Is it the third week of August already? :eek:

 

[Shropshire Slasher]

The I storm always seems to be the worst.

 

[Driftwood]

The Fs have been a problem for the East Coast when they come later in the year.
Fran
Floyd
Florence

 

[2muchcoffeeman]

It's too early for this.

@Driftwood, you're grounded until you turn 65.

 

[Driftwood]

I honestly thought I'd started it later than I did in previous years, but it does turn out I'm early.
Never too early to prepare, though.

 

[maumann]

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are back on the rise after a mild winter. Not sure they'll reach bathtub temps, but the locals are spooked after an unusually dry and hot (for Florida) summer last year.

 

[Driftwood]

Early hurricane season forecast suggests extremely high number of storms

Early forecasts for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season suggest it could be extreme, perhaps even record-breaking.
Colorado State University, a prominent hurricane and tropical weather forecast center, released its predictions on Thursday: 11 hurricanes, five of which are expected to become Category 3, 4 or 5, meaning they’d have wind speeds of at least 111 mph. Overall, the researchers anticipate 23 named storms this season.
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or above), according to the National Hurricane Center.

The two main reasons forecasters expect the coming season — which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 — to be so far above average are extreme levels of Atlantic Ocean heat and a seasonal switch to La Niña, a natural pattern of variability. Ocean temperatures have been record-high for a year, which makes powerful storms more likely and can enable them to intensify more quickly.
The Colorado forecast says there is a 62% chance that a major hurricane strikes the U.S. coastline, which is about 19% higher than the baseline.

 

[Driftwood]

Hopefully they are fish storms.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ane-season-2024-forecast-outlook/73801719007/

The start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is just over a week away, and federal forecasters Thursday predicted an "extraordinary" season with as many as 25 named storms possible.
This is the most storms the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has ever predicted in a preseason outlook. "All the ingredients are in place for an active season," said National Weather Service director Ken Graham at a press conference in Washington, D.C.
Previously, the record number of storms predicted in a preseason outlook from NOAA had been "14 to 23 named storms," back in 2010, according to Erica Grow Cei, a spokesperson for the National Weather Service.
The record for most actual named storms in a season is 30, set in 2020. A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, seven of which spin into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020.

 

[BTExpress]

We have a Kirk. We really need a Khan.

 

[Driftwood]

If we can maroon all of them on Ceti Alpha V.

 

[swingline]

We have a Kirk. We really need a Khan.

Damn you.

 

[Driftwood]

Opening day.

@hurrtrackerapp
Today marks the beginning of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. No development is expected the next 7 days. All indications are that this season may be well above average. The majority of storms occur August through late September. The season will end on Nov 30. We’ll be here to track each one to keep you updated without the hype. #hurricane #season #2024 #tropics

 

[BTExpress]

"Anything lower than Cat 2 is unnecessary hype."
[25yearSouthFloridaresident]

 

[Driftwood]

"Anything lower than Cat 2 is unnecessary hype."
[25yearSouthFloridaresident]

We just moved my mom into a condo on the island. She doesn’t sweat weather, but I told her I’d let her know if was time to leave. Otherwise, it’s fine. A Cat 1 is no different than an East Tennessee summer storm.

 

[dixiehack]

Worry about the water, not the wind.

 

[User 4332]

We just moved my mom into a condo on the island. She doesn’t sweat weather, but I told her I’d let her know if was time to leave. Otherwise, it’s fine. A Cat 1 is no different than an East Tennessee summer storm.

A couple of weeks after I moved to Wilmington some 25 odd years ago, a Category 1 hurricane started making its way toward the Carolina coast. Everyone around had that attitude of: It's just going to be a Cat 1, no big deal, it'll be stormy for half a day, but the only thing you really need to worry about is the tornadoes on the backside.

Being a young and foolish Midwesterner, I thought OK. I can handle that. I know what to do if there's a tornado, so if that's the biggest worry, I'm good. I stayed in town with my roommate, who had just moved down from Rose Hill and seemed wise in the way of hurricanes.

Well, Hurricane Bonnie didn't weaken anywhere nearly as much as they were predicting before making landfall as a strong Cat 2 near Topsail. More importantly, Bonnie seemed to stall over southeastern North Carolina. We had several hours of moving in and out of the western eyewall while it kind of oscillated. And the water in our runoff ditch behind our apartment was slowly creeping up to our patio door as we piled as many towels and clothes as we could find to try to keep it at bay.

The whole thing lasted about 3x as long as any of the locals predicted. It was about 36 hours of getting pounded followed by a week or so without electricity. As a result, I've always taken even category 1 hurricanes pretty seriously.

My favorite part of my Hurricane Bonnie story was the guy randomly banging on our front door during the worst of the eyewall. I opened the door to find a probably 30-something, rough looking dude wearing a wetsuit asking "You got any coke? I ran out hours ago. Wasn't expecting it to last this long." He was not referring to Coca-Cola.

 

[Shropshire Slasher]

Imagine what it was like on Grand Bahama for Dorian in 2019, having essentially an EF-4 tornado parked over your whole island for 48 hours straight. The (official) death toll was 70 on the island, but even the unofficial count of about 300 seems miraculous.