So before everything gets going tonight, a few thoughts about last night/this morning.
I got up early enough to watch the end the Tsitsipas-Nadal match -- picked it up at 4-4 in the fourth. You could see Rafa deflating from the moment Tsitsipas got the break in the fourth. The commentators said he'd been visibly tiring from the beginning of the set, and he certainly looked gassed at that point (certainly much moreso than Tsitsipas), but more than that, he looked like he knew the end was coming.
There was a moment -- right after Tsitsipas closed out the fourth set, maybe? -- when they showed Nadal sitting on his bench and I don't think I have ever seen him look so defeated. He managed to hang in until 5-5, but he followed with four consecutive unforced errors and was broken at love.
To his credit, Rafa made Tsitsipas work for it in the final game -- there were several times in that game I was thinking, "Here we go, tiebreak coming up and Rafa's going to pull this out" -- but to HIS credit, Tsitsipas fought off a break point and win it with a clean winner. He's only the second player to come back from losing the first two sets to beat Rafa in a major. A gigantic win.
That said, I think he'll lose to Medvedev, who was very sharp last night and will be a lot more rested after dusting Rublev in straight sets.
I didn't see the Barty loss, but I did see Brady-Pegula. Brady looked absolutely awful in the first set -- with the exception of one insane service game that lasted a grand total of six shots. Brady lost the first point on the return but came back with four straight aces. Other than that, she was missing everything long and looking increasingly frustrated. She got an early break in the second but still looked shaky. When she gave up break to let Pegula get back on serve at 2-3, I just KNEW Brady was going to lose.
Then just like that, Brady flipped a switch and was the Brady we saw at the U.S Open (and in the earlier rounds of this tournament). Lost just one game the rest of the match.
I think she gets to the final, and she has the firepower to stay with Osaka or Serena. Remember she took Osaka to three sets so the U.S. Open. I still think Osaka wins this thing, but it should be fun.