NBA offseason thread

[User 149557]

What other team was going to give DeRozan anywhere close to $28million per? The Knicks? Miami wasn’t going to pay that much. Were the Bulls bidding against themselves?

 

[sgreenwell]

If I’m Pelinka, I’m calling up James and telling him his first game is on Christmas and he has every fifth game off, and I’m calling Davis to tell him he has the two weeks before and the two weeks after the All-Star break off as well. Let Anthony, Westbrook and the “younger” players carry the team to a 3rd or 4th place finish and roll into June healthy and rested.

Why do you think they'd be a third or fourth place team with Davis and/or James missing significant time? They finished 7th this year - The West is friggin' brutal, man. Even if you stagger it so that it is always Westbrook plus LeBron or Davis at all times, I'd note that the Wizards barely made the playoffs in the East with Beal and Westbrook, although both missed time at various points. Plenty of hungry, grind-it-out teams in the West mean you can't really take any nights off and expect to win. I think the Lakers are built solely for the playoffs, which is fine.

 

[sgreenwell]

What other team was going to give DeRozan anywhere close to $28million per? The Knicks? Miami wasn’t going to pay that much. Were the Bulls bidding against themselves?

I don't like DeRozan that much as a player, and for the Bulls specifically, they already have a similar player in LaVine. LaVine's PER the last three seasons have been 18.7, 19.4 and 21.5, through age 25, and DeRozan's have been 19.6, 21.6 and 22.0. Better, but not $28M per year better. Both can be indifferent on defense, and also, I wouldn't want to be the team taking on DeRozan's career decline phase and also thinking I'd be better at using him and motivating him than Popovich. All that being said though, *someone* would have given him in the $20M to $30M range, I'm just not sure who.

 

[Cosmo]

I really liked the McGee signing for the Suns ... competent backup big who can do more than just eat minutes. He'll thrive in that role. It was clearly a huge missing piece for the Suns in the Finals.

 

[qtlaw]

I really liked the McGee signing for the Suns ... competent backup big who can do more than just eat minutes. He'll thrive in that role. It was clearly a huge missing piece for the Suns in the Finals.

Yes on both. After Ayton it was Kaminsky and Saric? Not good. And McGee was a great add for Ws both on and off court and miss him.

 

[Guy_Incognito]

- Kemba Walker agreeing to a buyout was surprising to me. I thought he would at least play for OKC for a half year or so, to reestablish his value, before being dealt again. Him going to the Knicks is perfectly on brand for the Knicks.

I'm a Knicks fan, and I love the Walker signing. He's just what they need, and in combination with Rose and Quickly, they should be able to piece together enough minutes/games to be a huge upgrade over Payton. He's the buy-low player that the Knicks never seem to get.
The DeRozen signing is a Knick-like move. Glad it wasn't them.

 

[DanielSimpsonDay]

Been gone for a week, so...

- The Bulls seem downright insane to me. I'm not convinced their current "core" is that good yet, and spending a crap ton on Caruso and Ball is just... wow. Along with surrendering first round picks to do it. They'll be better next year, but they're committing a ton of money to me to be pretty mediocre.

- I still don't like the Lakers giving up their whole roster for Westbrook, but their FA signings have been decent. It still seems way more like a team built from headlines 5 to 10 years ago, and man, that's a lot of old guys they're counting on to play significant minutes. Then again, probably the only thing that matters is whether Davis and LeBron are healthy at the end of the year. (This also applies to the Nets, but I like the odds of the Lakers two guys staying healthy more than the Nets' trio.)

- Kemba Walker agreeing to a buyout was surprising to me. I thought he would at least play for OKC for a half year or so, to reestablish his value, before being dealt again. Him going to the Knicks is perfectly on brand for the Knicks.

- I'm a Celtics fan, so, it seems like we're in for a "depressing" couple of quasi-competitive years. I wouldn't be surprised if we're right there with the Bulls and Knicks, as teams that might seem competitive, but then get exposed in the playoffs. Kind of like the pre-Garnett Celtics, who fluked their way deep into the playoffs at times, but weren't ever real threats to the eventual championship winner.

OKC may have felt that half a year would have been more likely to diminish rather than enhance Kemba's value. At least the man got p a i d before he fell off a cliff.

If Celtics green teamers are to be believed, help is on the way when the team trades Pritchard, Smart, and Carsen Edwards for Bradley Beal.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

I'm a Knicks fan, and I love the Walker signing. He's just what they need, and in combination with Rose and Quickly, they should be able to piece together enough minutes/games to be a huge upgrade over Payton. He's the buy-low player that the Knicks never seem to get.
The DeRozen signing is a Knick-like move. Glad it wasn't them.

Guy, I have to say that based on this last season with the Celtics, I came to the conclusion that Walker's body is basically unable to stand the gaff of NBA ball on a consistent basis. He can still play very very well on occasion, but he just seems unable to stay on the court or to be 100 percent on the court consistently. He only suited up for 43 of their 72 games. Too bad, because when he was good, he really lifted up the Celts, but he was one reason for their staggering inconsistency, lack of bigs and Tatum's individual inconsistency being the other two.

 

[Splendid Splinter]

I’m not the smartest when it comes to free agency. What is taking so long for teams to announce the free agents they signed, or the new players they got in a trade? For example, the Bulls haven’t announced Ball yet, and the Lakers haven’t announced any of their free agent signings.

 

[TigerVols]

I think today is the first official day of signings.

 

[Jake from State Farm]

I’m not the smartest when it comes to free agency. What is taking so long for teams to announce the free agents they signed, or the new players they got in a trade? For example, the Bulls haven’t announced Ball yet, and the Lakers haven’t announced any of their free agent signings.

The other leagues hold their free agencies after the official fiscal year begins so they don’t deal with the bull**** about a trade really isn’t a trade yet
Today is the official first day of league business so all that stuff will be announced today

 

[Guy_Incognito]

Guy, I have to say that based on this last season with the Celtics, I came to the conclusion that Walker's body is basically unable to stand the gaff of NBA ball on a consistent basis. He can still play very very well on occasion, but he just seems unable to stay on the court or to be 100 percent on the court consistently. He only suited up for 43 of their 72 games. Too bad, because when he was good, he really lifted up the Celts, but he was one reason for their staggering inconsistency, lack of bigs and Tatum's individual inconsistency being the other two.

All true, but he would hardly be the first to rebound from a season like that. It was not long ago that Chris Paul was Chris Paul's contract.

 

[sgreenwell]

All true, but he would hardly be the first to rebound from a season like that. It was not long ago that Chris Paul was Chris Paul's contract.

Chris Paul has always produced pretty well, though, and his skills are the type to age well, like John Stockton. (Shooting, FT shooting, passing, being an asshole to take advantage of every call, etc.) Paul was a legitimate "Top 3 in the league" type of player during his peak, so even some moderate slippage year over year from that means he's still valuable at 36. Walker has been more of a fringe All-Star guy, and I think the Celtics were banking on him improving his efficiency and value, going from being The Guy on a bad team to #2 or #3 on a better team. That didn't really happen, plus, he got injured. I think his career path is way more similar to a Deron Williams going forward, where if you blink, he might be out of the league.

 

[Guy_Incognito]

Chris Paul has always produced pretty well, though, and his skills are the type to age well, like John Stockton. (Shooting, FT shooting, passing, being an asshole to take advantage of every call, etc.) Paul was a legitimate "Top 3 in the league" type of player during his peak, so even some moderate slippage year over year from that means he's still valuable at 36. Walker has been more of a fringe All-Star guy, and I think the Celtics were banking on him improving his efficiency and value, going from being The Guy on a bad team to #2 or #3 on a better team. That didn't really happen, plus, he got injured. I think his career path is way more similar to a Deron Williams going forward, where if you blink, he might be out of the league.

OK, but Walker is not 36 yet. I'm not saying he's Paul, just that in the NBA (other leagues too, but less so), we have a tendency to give up on someone after a few bad / injured seasons, and sometimes they bounce back. He's a 4 time all star. Deron Williams is rare - I can't think of another that dramatic, other than Cleveland 2bs who went to the Mets. For $8 million a year for 2 years, that's a great chance to take. Even if he's finished, no harm done.

 

[sgreenwell]

OK, but Walker is not 36 yet. I'm not saying he's Paul, just that in the NBA (other leagues too, but less so), we have a tendency to give up on someone after a few bad / injured seasons, and sometimes they bounce back. He's a 4 time all star. Deron Williams is rare - I can't think of another that dramatic, other than Cleveland 2bs who went to the Mets. For $8 million a year for 2 years, that's a great chance to take. Even if he's finished, no harm done.

Sure - I think he's fine to take a flier on, essentially, as a guy who could be an average starting PG (that's what I think his ceiling is now) or a rotation guy. But I don't think he's really all that comparable to Chris Paul. His contract wasn't great at various points, but he's proven to be "worth" the money he's gotten up to now. That actually makes him an outlier, along the lines of LeBron. Walker is aging much more like a typical small guard - His list of comparable players on Basketball Reference is full of cautionary tales like Baron Davis, Mike Bibby, Kevin Martin and Lenny Wilkens.

By the way - Maybe it's just the podcasts I'm listening to, but I'm getting annoyed at the take of "see, Westbrook / Wall / Paul / Player X got moved, so no contract is really untradeable!" Yes, any contract is tradeable if you're willing to take equivalent garbage for it. It still doesn't mean you should spend a ton of money on bad players, just because you'll be able to trade them for equally bad players in X years.

 

[User 149557]

Sure - I think he's fine to take a flier on, essentially, as a guy who could be an average starting PG (that's what I think his ceiling is now) or a rotation guy. But I don't think he's really all that comparable to Chris Paul. His contract wasn't great at various points, but he's proven to be "worth" the money he's gotten up to now. That actually makes him an outlier, along the lines of LeBron. Walker is aging much more like a typical small guard - His list of comparable players on Basketball Reference is full of cautionary tales like Baron Davis, Mike Bibby, Kevin Martin and Lenny Wilkens.

By the way - Maybe it's just the podcasts I'm listening to, but I'm getting annoyed at the take of "see, Westbrook / Wall / Paul / Player X got moved, so no contract is really untradeable!" Yes, any contract is tradeable if you're willing to take equivalent garbage for it. It still doesn't mean you should spend a ton of money on bad players, just because you'll be able to trade them for equally bad players in X years.

We also forget to talk about how much time and opportunity cost there is to getting out from under those contracts.

We love to ooh and ah over how Andy Ellisburg can get the Heat out of cap hell and unload Dion Waiters (and the work really is amazing!) but we don’t talk about what they could’ve done with those resources or that period of time they were stuck with those players.

 

[DanielSimpsonDay]

I’m not the smartest when it comes to free agency.

- Dennis Schrōder

 

[TigerVols]

- Dennis Schrōder

He’s hit a bad streak.

 

[dixiehack]

- Dennis Schrōder

 

[heyabbott]