Linball

[The Big Ragu]

The problem is, that's only useful if you are trading MSG stock, rather than investing in it.

As a trader, you could have made money trying to time the movements of MSG stock. But you'd have to have been able to predict the rise of Jeremy Lin and then the Knicks letting him go to Houston. How likely was that?

Ultimately (if you give things long enough) the valuation for a stock is going to base itself on earnings, not hype. Disney stock might go up due to hype over a movie release, for example. But if you look over time, it always reverts back to a valuation based on actual earnings.

So then the question becomes, how much in future earnings does Jeremy Lin actually translate to. I don't know the answer to that. But I strongly suspect the movements in the stock price have overestimated his impact. I don't know that business well enough to say that for sure, but I do know that some of the obvious things, such as jersey sales, don't just benefit the Knicks. The NBA shares licensing revenue.

So the calculation would be how much Jeremy Lin translates to in tangible earnings for the Knicks. How much does he really impact ticket sales, for example? Will MSG ratings stay higher permanently because of him, and if so, how much does that mean in added ad revenue? What if the novelty wears off, and he stays a really good player, but not an Asian Jesus?

You'd then have to consider those things, and put them next to the $50 million or so in luxury tax and added salary (a number I think I read) to try to guess his long-term impact on MSG's earnings.

At least that is the way an investor, rather than a trader, would do it.

He definitely will drive earnings. Houston will earn more as a result of having him. The question is how MUCH will he drive earnings for the next 3 years?

 

[poindexter]

Henry Abbot:
Carmelo didn't want him. Wasn't part of Anthony's 'vision' for his Knicks.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8180308/nba-jeremy-lin-six-degrees-separation-family

 

[The Big Ragu]

Henry Abbot:
Carmelo didn't want him. Wasn't part of Anthony's 'vision' for his Knicks.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8180308/nba-jeremy-lin-six-degrees-separation-family

I saw that last night and found it unreadable.

Aside from all the poorly edited, fluffy page filler, it was insider's knowledge without any reason given to believe he's an actual insider. About halfway through the first page, I was wondering if I was reading a description of James Dolan being serviced at a brothel or an objective look at things.

 

[cranberry]

Henry Abbot:
Carmelo didn't want him. Wasn't part of Anthony's 'vision' for his Knicks.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8180308/nba-jeremy-lin-six-degrees-separation-family

I saw that last night and found it unreadable.

Aside from all the poorly edited, fluffy page filler, it was insider's knowledge without any reason given to believe he's an actual insider. About halfway through the first page, I was wondering if I was reading a description of James Dolan being serviced at a brothel or an objective look at things.

Yeah, that was just an awful "here's what I think Melo thinks" pile of bull****. Are there no editors left in the world?

 

[Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L)]

darren rovell ‏@darrenrovell
With an hour to go until market close, Madison Square Garden has now lost $101M in value in the last 5 days.

 

[Boom_70]

The problem is, that's only useful if you are trading MSG stock, rather than investing in it.

As a trader, you could have made money trying to time the movements of MSG stock. But you'd have to have been able to predict the rise of Jeremy Lin and then the Knicks letting him go to Houston. How likely was that?

Ultimately (if you give things long enough) the valuation for a stock is going to base itself on earnings, not hype. Disney stock might go up due to hype over a movie release, for example. But if you look over time, it always reverts back to a valuation based on actual earnings.

So then the question becomes, how much in future earnings does Jeremy Lin actually translate to. I don't know the answer to that. But I strongly suspect the movements in the stock price have overestimated his impact. I don't know that business well enough to say that for sure, but I do know that some of the obvious things, such as jersey sales, don't just benefit the Knicks. The NBA shares licensing revenue.

So the calculation would be how much Jeremy Lin translates to in tangible earnings for the Knicks. How much does he really impact ticket sales, for example? Will MSG ratings stay higher permanently because of him, and if so, how much does that mean in added ad revenue? What if the novelty wears off, and he stays a really good player, but not an Asian Jesus?

You'd then have to consider those things, and put them next to the $50 million or so in luxury tax and added salary (a number I think I read) to try to guess his long-term impact on MSG's earnings.

At least that is the way an investor, rather than a trader, would do it.

He definitely will drive earnings. Houston will earn more as a result of having him. The question is how MUCH will he drive earnings for the next 3 years?

Well stated Ragu but what I was trying to show in the charts is the direct correlation between the arrival of Jeremy Lin and the rise of MSG stock. I was not speaking to the long term investment value of MSG.

I do think the rise had a lot to do with trader mentality as opposed to investor. The Lin story had a lot of sizzle to it
that clearly translated into a short term stock rise.

I believe that the big driver was the increased TV ratings as opposed to increased ticket sales. Also think that the success of The Rangers was a factor.

 

[YankeeFan]

https://twitter.com/ChandlerParsons/status/247394195151659008/photo/1

 

[Dick Whitman]

So is he starting in the All-Star Game? Or perhaps hanging out with Tim Tebow instead to reminisce about how they both coulda been somebody?

 

[Versatile]

He finished 46,269 votes behind Chris Paul for the Western Conference's second guard spot.

http://www.csnhouston.com/basketball-houston-rockets/talk/lin-loses-paul-all-star-voting

 

[Dick Whitman]

Maybe he can be in the 3-point contest.

He seems really good at that.

 

[LongTimeListener]

What an odd thing to dredge up, and what a stupid way to dredge it up.

Lin is a starter for a low-level playoff team -- pretty bad shooter right now, but a 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and not completely a lost cause.

He's also the pillar of the franchise-building performance of Daryl Morey, who I believe is your NBA idol for his embrace of all things numerological. So your loves and hates are meshing in an uncomfortable way here.

 

[heyabbott]

Best part of Lin's game is that 30 minutes after he finishes, he can go again

 

[Versatile]

White people like Jeremy Lin because he makes Jackie Chan look like Genghis Khan.

 

[Dick Whitman]

What an odd thing to dredge up, and what a stupid way to dredge it up.

Lin is a starter for a low-level playoff team -- pretty bad shooter right now, but a 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and not completely a lost cause.

He's also the pillar of the franchise-building performance of Daryl Morey, who I believe is your NBA idol for his embrace of all things numerological. So your loves and hates are meshing in an uncomfortable way here.

Oh, lighten up, Francis.

It's a perfectly reasonable time to revisit Linsanity. Clearly he's a serviceable NBA player, but not a superstar.

 

[Dick Whitman]

What an odd thing to dredge up, and what a stupid way to dredge it up.

Lin is a starter for a low-level playoff team -- pretty bad shooter right now, but a 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and not completely a lost cause.

He's also the pillar of the franchise-building performance of Daryl Morey, who I believe is your NBA idol for his embrace of all things numerological. So your loves and hates are meshing in an uncomfortable way here.

I think you are confusing being interested in how Morey's approach will work out with supporting it or even hoping that it works.

 

[Versatile]

Lin is a starter for a low-level playoff team -- pretty bad shooter right now, but a 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and not completely a lost cause.

That assist-to-turnover ratio is not very good at the NBA level. He's 42nd out of 48 players ESPN calls qualified point guards, and three of the players he's ahead of really are combo guards who play shooting guard more often than point: http://es.pn/VnrRuP

Lin is tied for 11th in the NBA in turnovers a game but 20th in assists a game. And after a strong December, he's crashed back to earth this month. The same could be said for the Rockets, who are 2-8 in their last 10 and only staying in the eighth seed because the Trail Blazers are facing similar issues. The Lakers or Mavericks probably will steal that last seed in the West.

I would love to see him succeed, but I don't think he will.

 

[qtlaw]

Lin is a starter for a low-level playoff team -- pretty bad shooter right now, but a 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and not completely a lost cause.

That assist-to-turnover ratio is not very good at the NBA level. He's 42nd out of 48 players ESPN calls qualified point guards, and three of the players he's ahead of really are combo guards who play shooting guard more often than point: http://es.pn/VnrRuP

Lin is tied for 11th in the NBA in turnovers a game but 20th in assists a game. And after a strong December, he's crashed back to earth this month. The same could be said for the Rockets, who are 2-8 in their last 10 and only staying in the eighth seed because the Trail Blazers are facing similar issues. The Lakers or Mavericks probably will steal that last seed in the West.

I would love to see him succeed, but I don't think he will.

Paul's 4.65 ratio is ridiculous; lobs do help though.

Lin is stabilizing his game. Expecting sustained superstardom at this point is unreasonable. In addition, learning to mesh with Harden is going to take time as well.

 

[93Devil]

Lin is a starter for a low-level playoff team -- pretty bad shooter right now, but a 2-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and not completely a lost cause.

That assist-to-turnover ratio is not very good at the NBA level. He's 42nd out of 48 players ESPN calls qualified point guards, and three of the players he's ahead of really are combo guards who play shooting guard more often than point: http://es.pn/VnrRuP

Lin is tied for 11th in the NBA in turnovers a game but 20th in assists a game. And after a strong December, he's crashed back to earth this month. The same could be said for the Rockets, who are 2-8 in their last 10 and only staying in the eighth seed because the Trail Blazers are facing similar issues. The Lakers or Mavericks probably will steal that last seed in the West.

I would love to see him succeed, but I don't think he will.

But his assist-to-turnover ration is better than Knight, Next Thing Irving and Ellis. Along with Paul, Calderon, Duhon and Price round out the top four. Not exactly an amazing list. That's kind of a weighted stat.

http://www.82games.com/1213/1213HOU.HTM

His plus/minus is pretty much break even. He's not going to be an all star type player, but he will have a nice long career. Even if it is coming off the bench as a sixth man in a year or two.

 

[LongTimeListener]

I don't know. He has started 69 games already in his career. I see no reason to believe he can ever improve as a player. That never happens to anybody.

Plus, he ain't got time for no All-Star Game. Sundance, *******.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2013/01/22/jeremy-lin-sundance/1854331/

 

[Dick Whitman]

In all seriousness, with his skill set, he has to shoot better. At least servicably. And that's an area that can be targeted for improvement, one would think.