Hillary or George

[alleyallen]

Hillary Clinton invented being selfish, power-hungry and grating on other people's nerves.

Invented?

You can't possibly be serious.

That was Sarcasm Light Oblique font, JR.

JR, it was most definitely sarcasm. Nor do I believe Gore really invented the Internet (or claimed he did so).

 

[tyler durden 71351]

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really hope she doesn't run. There is no way Hillary can get elected...there are polls right now that show Hillary-McCain running dead even in Massachusetts. In Massachusetts -- a state that's hard core Democrat! The Democrats need to nominate someone who can hold on to the base and pick up some swing states. There are just too many people who hate Hillary...rank and file Republicans hate her just as much as rank and file Democrats hate W. Even if by some miracle, she would win, it would be impossible for her to do anything without the Republicans and Fox News and all the knuckle-draggers going nuts. I really hope both parties pick people from the middle, who can start to get America over all this partisian b.s. and this red state/blue state crap.

 

[Ace]

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really hope she doesn't run. There is no way Hillary can get elected...there are polls right now that show Hillary-McCain running dead even in Massachusetts. In Massachusetts -- a state that's hard core Democrat! The Democrats need to nominate someone who can hold on to the base and pick up some swing states. There are just too many people who hate Hillary...rank and file Republicans hate her just as much as rank and file Democrats hate W. Even if by some miracle, she would win, it would be impossible for her to do anything without the Republicans and Fox News and all the knuckle-draggers going nuts. I really hope both parties pick people from the middle, who can start to get America over all this partisian b.s. and this red state/blue state crap.

Rank and file Republicans don't vote for Democrats. The Dems could put George Washington up there and the Republicans would vote for Charles Manson if he were on the Republican ticket.

Democrats, on the other hand, will pick and choose.

 

[PopeDirkBenedict]

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really hope she doesn't run. There is no way Hillary can get elected...there are polls right now that show Hillary-McCain running dead even in Massachusetts. In Massachusetts -- a state that's hard core Democrat! The Democrats need to nominate someone who can hold on to the base and pick up some swing states. There are just too many people who hate Hillary...rank and file Republicans hate her just as much as rank and file Democrats hate W. Even if by some miracle, she would win, it would be impossible for her to do anything without the Republicans and Fox News and all the knuckle-draggers going nuts. I really hope both parties pick people from the middle, who can start to get America over all this partisian b.s. and this red state/blue state crap.

Rank and file Republicans don't vote for Democrats. The Dems could put George Washington up there and the Republicans would vote for Charles Manson if he were on the Republican ticket.

Democrats, on the other hand, will pick and choose.

Got a link to back that up?

 

[Pastor]

Because Hillary is a woman, she is more polarizing than Bush. People don't want to admit it, but a lot of the animosity towards her is based on her forward nature.

Look at the approval ratings of Laura Bush compared to those of Hillary's when her husband was president. Everyone seems to like Laura despite the fact that she has put forward absolutely nothing for the country. Hillary tried to get involved and was lambasted for it.

Then you have to throw in the whole "standing by the cheating husband" thing. This put off a few women.

If she were ever obtain the presidency, she would be the most hated president ever.

 

[Ace]

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really hope she doesn't run. There is no way Hillary can get elected...there are polls right now that show Hillary-McCain running dead even in Massachusetts. In Massachusetts -- a state that's hard core Democrat! The Democrats need to nominate someone who can hold on to the base and pick up some swing states. There are just too many people who hate Hillary...rank and file Republicans hate her just as much as rank and file Democrats hate W. Even if by some miracle, she would win, it would be impossible for her to do anything without the Republicans and Fox News and all the knuckle-draggers going nuts. I really hope both parties pick people from the middle, who can start to get America over all this partisian b.s. and this red state/blue state crap.

Rank and file Republicans don't vote for Democrats. The Dems could put George Washington up there and the Republicans would vote for Charles Manson if he were on the Republican ticket.

Democrats, on the other hand, will pick and choose.

Got a link to back that up?

George W. Bush is president of the United States. What more proof do you need?

It's a generalization, obviously, but you will see more Republicans win in "Democratic" districts than you will see Democrats win in Republican area.

 

[PopeDirkBenedict]

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really hope she doesn't run. There is no way Hillary can get elected...there are polls right now that show Hillary-McCain running dead even in Massachusetts. In Massachusetts -- a state that's hard core Democrat! The Democrats need to nominate someone who can hold on to the base and pick up some swing states. There are just too many people who hate Hillary...rank and file Republicans hate her just as much as rank and file Democrats hate W. Even if by some miracle, she would win, it would be impossible for her to do anything without the Republicans and Fox News and all the knuckle-draggers going nuts. I really hope both parties pick people from the middle, who can start to get America over all this partisian b.s. and this red state/blue state crap.

Rank and file Republicans don't vote for Democrats. The Dems could put George Washington up there and the Republicans would vote for Charles Manson if he were on the Republican ticket.

Democrats, on the other hand, will pick and choose.

Got a link to back that up?

George W. Bush is president of the United States. What more proof do you need?

It's a generalization, obviously, but you will see more Republicans win in "Democratic" districts than you will see Democrats win in Republican area.

Again, do you have any kind of empirical evidence to back that up?

 

[Ace]

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really hope she doesn't run. There is no way Hillary can get elected...there are polls right now that show Hillary-McCain running dead even in Massachusetts. In Massachusetts -- a state that's hard core Democrat! The Democrats need to nominate someone who can hold on to the base and pick up some swing states. There are just too many people who hate Hillary...rank and file Republicans hate her just as much as rank and file Democrats hate W. Even if by some miracle, she would win, it would be impossible for her to do anything without the Republicans and Fox News and all the knuckle-draggers going nuts. I really hope both parties pick people from the middle, who can start to get America over all this partisian b.s. and this red state/blue state crap.

Rank and file Republicans don't vote for Democrats. The Dems could put George Washington up there and the Republicans would vote for Charles Manson if he were on the Republican ticket.

Democrats, on the other hand, will pick and choose.

Got a link to back that up?

George W. Bush is president of the United States. What more proof do you need?

It's a generalization, obviously, but you will see more Republicans win in "Democratic" districts than you will see Democrats win in Republican area.

Again, do you have any kind of empirical evidence to back that up?

This link will show a map that illustrates counties that votes solidly Republican are much more numerous than ones that vote mostly Democrat, even though there are more registered Democrats in the country.

http://www.pensee.com/bowditch/maps/elections/voting.html

 

[Football_Bat]

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really hope she doesn't run. There is no way Hillary can get elected...there are polls right now that show Hillary-McCain running dead even in Massachusetts. In Massachusetts -- a state that's hard core Democrat! The Democrats need to nominate someone who can hold on to the base and pick up some swing states. There are just too many people who hate Hillary...rank and file Republicans hate her just as much as rank and file Democrats hate W. Even if by some miracle, she would win, it would be impossible for her to do anything without the Republicans and Fox News and all the knuckle-draggers going nuts. I really hope both parties pick people from the middle, who can start to get America over all this partisian b.s. and this red state/blue state crap.

Rank and file Republicans don't vote for Democrats. The Dems could put George Washington up there and the Republicans would vote for Charles Manson if he were on the Republican ticket.

Democrats, on the other hand, will pick and choose.

Got a link to back that up?

George W. Bush is president of the United States. What more proof do you need?

It's a generalization, obviously, but you will see more Republicans win in "Democratic" districts than you will see Democrats win in Republican area.

Again, do you have any kind of empirical evidence to back that up?

This link will show a map that illustrates counties that votes solidly Republican are much more numerous than ones that vote mostly Democrat, even though there are more registered Democrates in the country.

That doesn't mean much. The counties that vote blue tend to be more populous.

 

[Ace]

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really hope she doesn't run. There is no way Hillary can get elected...there are polls right now that show Hillary-McCain running dead even in Massachusetts. In Massachusetts -- a state that's hard core Democrat! The Democrats need to nominate someone who can hold on to the base and pick up some swing states. There are just too many people who hate Hillary...rank and file Republicans hate her just as much as rank and file Democrats hate W. Even if by some miracle, she would win, it would be impossible for her to do anything without the Republicans and Fox News and all the knuckle-draggers going nuts. I really hope both parties pick people from the middle, who can start to get America over all this partisian b.s. and this red state/blue state crap.

Rank and file Republicans don't vote for Democrats. The Dems could put George Washington up there and the Republicans would vote for Charles Manson if he were on the Republican ticket.

Democrats, on the other hand, will pick and choose.

Got a link to back that up?

George W. Bush is president of the United States. What more proof do you need?

It's a generalization, obviously, but you will see more Republicans win in "Democratic" districts than you will see Democrats win in Republican area.

Again, do you have any kind of empirical evidence to back that up?

This link will show a map that illustrates counties that votes solidly Republican are much more numerous than ones that vote mostly Democrat, even though there are more registered Democrates in the country.

That doesn't mean much. The counties that vote blue tend to be more populous.

It's a map of all counties and how they vote, not how many vote.

 

[tyler durden 71351]

Plus, there are a lot of people who are registered Democrats who haven't voted that way in a presidential election since 1964. Remember, the Democrats were the majority party for a long while. (They may even still have an edge on the national registration numbers) Hell, there are rural counties in the South where every elected officeholder is a Democrat, but Bush got 80% of the vote. These folks are registered Democrats, but when they get in the voting booth, they're conservative Republicans.

 

[Ace]

Plus, there are a lot of people who are registered Democrats who haven't voted that way in a presidential election since 1964. Remember, the Democrats were the majority party for a long while. (They may even still have an edge on the national registration numbers) Hell, there are rural counties in the South where every elected officeholder is a Democrat, but Bush got 80% of the vote. These folks are registered Democrats, but when they get in the voting booth, they're conservative Republicans.

That's true. Plenty of conservative Democrats. (Not too many liberal Republicans, though).

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Results so far...

Hillary Clinton 14 (35.9%)
George W. Bush 12 (30.8%)
Both the same 13 (33.3%)

Looks like those of us voting "Both the same" nailed this one.

 

[Gold]

It's hard to imagine anybody being more polarizing that George W. Bush. His politics is based on that... I refer to Bob Woodward's book where Bush people talk about the base. Bush gives few press conferences and they arrange appearances to demand loyalty - in the 2004 campagin, they didn't want undecided people at their rally. Think about that - part of giving speeches used to be to try to convince people, and the Bush/Rove political machine does pretty much the opposite. Bush got 600,000 fewer votes in 2000 than Gore, and got 51 percent of the vote during a war. That is Bush's political way during the past six years.

Compare that with Hillary Clinton. Six years ago she was looked at as a carpetbagger (with justification) in running for Senate in New York. In 2006, the Republicans are pretty much conceding her a Senate seat. Yeah, it's New York, but you would think they could do better upstate which isn't so solidly Democratic. And while the Republican/right-wing noise machine might "hate" her, she does have ability to work with Republicans in the Senate. She is successful as a politican, although that is probably because her husband is the master.

Hillary loses to McCain if that's the matchup in 2008 - it's like a team which doesn't match up against another team in a playoff series but could win it all if it doesn't have to play the difficult matchup. Yeah, a lot of people don't like Hillary but if she gets the nomination, the Republicans have to say hello to the gender gap.

 

[PopeDirkBenedict]

It's hard to imagine anybody being more polarizing that George W. Bush.  His politics is based on that... I refer to Bob Woodward's book where Bush people talk about the base.   Bush gives few press conferences and they arrange appearances to demand loyalty - in the 2004 campagin, they didn't want undecided people at their rally.  Think about that - part of giving speeches used to be to try to convince people, and the Bush/Rove political machine does pretty much the opposite.   Bush got 600,000 fewer votes in 2000 than Gore, and got 51 percent of the vote during a war.   That is Bush's political way during the past six years.

Compare that with Hillary Clinton.  Six years ago she was looked at as a carpetbagger (with justification) in running for Senate in New York.  In 2006, the Republicans are pretty much conceding her a Senate seat.  Yeah, it's New York, but you would think they could do better upstate which isn't so solidly Democratic.  And while the Republican/right-wing noise machine might "hate" her, she does have ability to work with Republicans in the Senate.  She is successful as a politican, although that is probably because her husband is the master. 

Hillary loses to McCain if that's the matchup in 2008 - it's like a team which doesn't match up against another team in a playoff series but could win it all if it doesn't have to play the difficult matchup.  Yeah, a lot of people don't like Hillary but if she gets the nomination, the Republicans have to say hello to the gender gap.

A few quick points:

--All but the most blind Hillary haters will give her credit for working well with others in the Senate and not letting ego run amok. But that doesn't translate into picking up swing votes.

--The Republicans' failure to find a good candidate can be traced to Pataki's utter failure to develop "a bench" of good Republican candidates throughout the state. The NY GOP (and Conservative party, et al) is in for an ass-kicking of epic proportions this year. Spitzer and Hillary could each win 70% of the vote because Pataki wasted away his governorship without using his political capital to win downballot races. Rick Lazio was a Republican up-and-comer who gave Hillary a helluva race in 2000. In 2006, the NY GOP has no Lazios.

 

[Ralph Waldo Henderson]

I've always felt Hillary's appeal will be directly tied to how people feel about Bush and the direction of the country in '08. If they disapprove as much as now, people will be a lot more open to going hard in the other direction - Hillary may not be uber-liberal, but people have a good idea of what they'd be getting.

But if Bush's approval has leveled out a bit, the Dems would be much better off nominating Warner, Edwards or Bayh. Or even Gore if he jumps in.

Still, I don't think McCain vs. Hillary would be a walk for the GOP. Don't discount the importance of McCain's age, and the fact - as I would regard it, but it's arguable - that Hillary's political instincts are probably better. She has, after all, gone from a close Senate race as of early 2000, to winning by a comfortable margin to having practically no opposition in '06. Yes, McCain went from losing in 2000 to front-runner in 08. But I would argue that he may only be front-runner because of name recognition; the Tennessee straw poll was discouraging.

Do I want Hillary to win? Not really. Give me Warner/Edwards/Bayh/Gore vs. McCain or Romney, and I'll live with the result. Give me George Allen, Bill Frist or Sam Brownback, and I'll vote for whatever semi-breathing creature the Dems nominate.

 

[Gold]

Dirk: I'm six years and 3,000 miles away from the 2000 New York Senate race, but I had the impression that Lazio didn't run all that great of a campaign. Maybe somebody could get a good number (It's late and I'm tired and other people can look things up better on the Internet) but I thought Hillary won that race with about 54 percent of the vote or that she was eight percentage points ahead of Lazio. I wasn't impressed by Lazio's campaign. I think he had enough money to run a credible campaign and Hillary was a carpetbagger who had never run for elective office herself (What was Hillary's percentage compared to Gore's percentage).

Pataki has clearly faded in popularity - our man Jones noted that Pataki's approval rating was 29 percent in New York in his Esquire article about John McCain.

Dirk or anybody else familiar with New York politics - did Pataki really have any chance to gain much in down ballot offices? The governor runs as a team with the Lt. Governor - I know you had to vote for a team years ago; that is, you couldn't vote for a Republican governor and a Democratic Lt. Governor. Spiter was very popular as Attorney General, and I think there are two other offices. I know they made some bad choices as his Lt. Governors, but that always seemed to be a balancing act.

 

[PopeDirkBenedict]

Dirk:    I'm six years and 3,000 miles away from the 2000 New York Senate race, but I had the impression that Lazio didn't run all that great of a campaign.  Maybe somebody could get a good number (It's late and I'm tired and other people can look things up better on the Internet) but I thought Hillary won that race with about 54 percent of the vote or that she was eight percentage points ahead of Lazio.  I wasn't impressed by Lazio's campaign.  I think he had enough money to run a credible campaign and Hillary was a carpetbagger who had never run for elective office herself (What was Hillary's percentage compared to Gore's percentage).

Pataki has clearly faded in popularity - our man Jones noted that Pataki's approval rating was 29 percent in New York in his Esquire article about John McCain.

Dirk or anybody else familiar with New York politics - did Pataki really have any chance to gain much in down ballot offices?  The governor runs as a team with the Lt. Governor - I know you had to vote for a team years ago; that is, you couldn't vote for a Republican governor and a Democratic Lt. Governor.  Spiter was very popular as Attorney General, and I think there are two other offices.  I know they made some bad choices as his Lt. Governors, but that always seemed to be a balancing act. 

Lazio kept it very close until the end. His major blunder was "crowding" Hillary at a debate where he walked over to her, invaded her personal space and badgered her to sign some campaign pledge. Women recoiled from Lazio at that point. After that debate, the numbers settled in at the 55-45 margin they rougly ended at.

When I referred to downballot offices, I wasn't necessarily talking about statewide offices. Pataki failed to use his clout to get promising Republicans into the legislature. Part of being governor is building a farm team for your party and Pataki didn't do that.

 

[suburbia]

The Dems would be foolish to trot out Hillary in '08, but, sadly, I expect them to do so anyway.

She has ZERO chance of getting elected for three reasons:

1. A lot of women resent her for staying with Bill. They feel it makes all women look bad.

2. She's very far to the left politically, and is fiesty and tempermental in a way that Rove can exploit

3. The sad reality is that large parts of this country still expect women, especially married women, to be like Laura Bush. They don't like the idea of women being deeply interested in matters of politics and government, let alone being in a high position of power as well.

 

[expendable]

Two opinions from someone who sits on the right:

If McCain were to get the GOP nomination, you would have to balance him with someone who is more conservative, like Allen or Frist for VP. Otherwise there will probably be enough of a splinter group from the far right that would allow Hillary/whomever to win.

One reason people don't like Hillary is that they didn't vote for her or against her in 1992, and right after Bill said "so help me God", she was seen as having a direct influence on presidential policy. If the Dems play it smart, they will not nominate Hillary, the GOP would split just enough with a McCain nomination allowing the Democrats to seize power across the board. I expect her to get the nomination, however, and the GOP to begrudgingly hold together for another presidential election cycle -- whether a moderate like McCain gets the nomination or a conservative like Allen.