Marty Merzer:
Hurricane Irma advice #3 - Tuesday, Sept. 5: Serious Preparations - Now is The Time and Here are Some Suggestions
(This is a public post and may be shared. - and it may be printed out as a checklist. It's based on several decades of experience covering, living through and otherwise dealing with these storms. Note the second graphic, which is new and quite helpful.)
Though Irma remains far from Florida and the rest of the U.S. mainland, it now is a fierce, top-line Category 5 storm, and the five-day forecasts are remaining remarkably and perilously consistent. In addition, as discussed yesterday, Hurricane Harvey inflicted such traumatic damage that many people elsewhere in the hurricane zone are taking special notice of Irma, with many timing and other questions on their minds.
Two preliminaries: 1. Don’t place much emphasis on the slight shifts of each forecast track. Rather, keep an eye on the TREND of the National Hurricane Center’s forecast tracks. Right now, a weak trend toward the left might be appearing, with possible passage of the core through the Florida Straits and into the Gulf of Mexico (which your author in Tallahassee would really, REALLY hate), but…that well could change as soon as this post is…posted.
2. A reminder to please ignore people who insist on sharing graphics - and interpretations - of computer models. Again, models are only one component of a forecast and those people generally are amateurs who risk blurring the important work of professional forecasters and emergency managers. Pay attention only to the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center and, when it comes to possible evacuation, the orders of your local emergency managers.
The main message today: With the Florida Keys, South Florida and much of Central Florida now solidly within the five-day forecast cone and with inventories of some supplies already under stress, it's time for residents of those regions to begin serious pre-storm activities.
Government, social service and charitable agencies can help to a point, but they can't reach or serve everyone - at once or sometimes ever. They only can augment what you've already established. So, you are the first line of support. You are primarily responsible for the safety and security of yourselves, your families and your friends, so...get to it.
Residents of upper Central Florida and of North Florida (hi Tallahassee!) have the luxury of a little more time, but there’s no harm in getting our acts together there/here, too.
Here is an expansive — but not complete — list of things you should be doing, especially in the Keys and South Florida but also elsewhere around the state.
Feel free to print out this post as a checklist. And please feel free to add to it through comments. Crowd sourcing is good.
General survival tips:
- If you have storm shutters and live in South Florida, be prepared to install them no later than Thursday. Conditions could deteriorate on Friday and severely complicate that task.
- If you live in a multi-story house that is surrounded by or close to trees, make absolutely certain that everyone sleeps on the ground-floor level during the storm. Hurricanes are nature's weed whackers and numerous trees will fall. (During Hermine’s passage through Tallahassee last year, someone said his life and the life of his wife likely were saved by this advice, as a tree crashed through their roof and into their second-floor bedroom as they slept downstairs.)
- Also, sleep away from and otherwise stay away from glass panel doors.
- Utility poles will fall and other elements of the power-generating infrastructure will fail. Be prepared for sweeping, cascading and lengthy power and communications outages. Even with the best efforts of utility workers and local leaders, your service may not be restored for days - or weeks.
- Do not stack garbage or tree clippings in the street before the storm, and discourage your neighbors from doing so. That debris will morph into destructive flying missiles in hurricane or tropical storm winds.
Things to do today or tomorrow:
- If you have a portable generator, buy gasoline for it now (keeping it safely stored) and otherwise get the generator ready for action, testing it today. Be sure to store it in a spot that is accessible after the storm.
- If you have a propane grill, buy extra propane.
- Gather your flashlights and batteries and place them in convenient locations around the house. Special tip: Those new LED flashlights are terrific and well worth the extra money. Just one medium-sized one, aimed toward the ceiling, illuminated half our house during our three-day Hermine-related blackout.
- If your local stores are out of flashlights, batteries, etc., order them from Amazon NOW and spring for the two-day delivery option. You’ll get them on Thursday, just in time.
- Fill up your vehicles' gas tanks and keep them as full as you can, without constantly topping them off. Fuel pumps also require electricity.
- Shelter in garages as many vehicles as you can and know how to open your garage door without help from an automatic garage door opener.
- Get some cash out of your bank account. Cash comes back into style after a storm because credit card machines also need electricity.
- Make sure you have enough bottled water, bread and shelf-stable milk (for the kids), instant coffee, peanut butter, dried fruit and other commodities for a week.
- Don’t forget to have enough food on hand for your pets.
- Sports drinks also come in handy during the recovery phase as you're working around the house in the heat. Stock up on plenty of them. (It's really better - safer - not to get boozed up during or after a storm. You know that, right?)
- Make sure you have enough meds for everyone in your family for two weeks or more.
- Also be sure to have insect repellent, sunblock, cortisone cream, other first-aid supplies for use after the storm. Be especially wary of fire ants, bees, wasps, etc. They will be in moods even worse than yours.
- When you go shopping, don't forget toilet paper. (Remember: Everything that goes in generally comes back out.)
- If you have a pool, super-chlorinate it now and have plenty of chlorine on hand for later. You’ll need it.
- Back-up your computer hard drives to an external drive, and put that external drive in someplace safe and dry.
- Take photos or videos of everything in your house and store them in the Cloud or on an external drive that also is placed in a safe, dry location.
- Lower the temperature inside your refrigerator and freezer. Make and store as much ice as you can.
As the storm approaches:
- If you have a battery-operated portable radio, bring it out. (Aside from WFSU, we have few - if any - sources of reliable radio news around here in North Florida, but you may be in a better place, so to speak).
- Keep your cell phones and other rechargeable devices plugged in for as long as possible. After a storm, cell phones often are the only operating communications devices - until their batteries run out.
- If you have an old-fashioned landline phone, one that only needs to be plugged into a phone jack (and not also into an electrical socket), pull it out and plug it into a jack. Most landline systems provide their own electricity and that old-fashioned landline might work for you.
- Take showers and baths as close to the arrival of the storm as you can, while you still have hot water. Even gas-operated tankless heaters need electricity to maintain water temperature.
- Then, fill up your bathtubs. That water can come in handy after that storm, especially if you need it to fill toilet tanks.
- Speaking of which, if water stops flowing, get a bucket and make friends with someone who has a pool or lives near a lake. Water from those sources works fine in toilet tanks.
- Make sure that your home and vehicle insurance policies are within reach and are in a waterproof safe or waterproof plastic bags.
After the storm passes:
- NEVER drive through a flooded road or step into a puddle near downed trees or power poles. Most lives are lost during these storms due to inland flooding and dunderheaded walking.
- Also after the storm, as you begin to clean up, be vigilant in all other ways. ERs always tend to fill up with people who hurt themselves with chain saws or have coronaries or have strokes or break their limbs or all of the above.
- And watch out for those fire ants, bees, snakes, etc.
Taking these and other modest precautions and actions will cost you nothing and can pay off big-time in coming days.
Listen to your forecasters, emergency managers, other experts and local officials. They know how to get you through this.
In the end, this, too, shall pass.
Be safe. Be kind. Be generous with your neighbors.
(The second graphic reflects an experimental new product from the National Hurricane Center, courtesy of just retired chief NHC forecaster
James Franklin.)
(A similar checklist of tips, but with some important additions, created by hurricane expert and friend Bryan Norcross can be found in the first comment below.)
marty merzer
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