Marty Merzer for several, several years was *the* hurricane writer for the Miami Herald. Yeah, an important job down there. He was there for Andrew. He was there when Katrina first hit, then went to New Orleans. And many others. He knows hurricanes. He knows how to report. He knows how to write.
I'm friends on FB with him from my Herald days. He lives in Tallahassee now, but still knows his stuff -- and does so in a sane, rational, honest way. He's posting storm updates on his page and I'll post them here when I can.
5 p.m. EDT Monday.
Motivated and even traumatized by what they saw happen in Texas last week, many people throughout the hurricane zone are paying, let's call it, "special' attention to Hurricane Irma, a major Category 4 storm still on the other side of the outer Caribbean islands and, as of 5 p.m., still 1,774 miles from Miami.
This is perfectly understandable -- Harvey was a terror -- and this is not an unusual response in the immediate wake of a hurricane like that one. I've seen it before. (That said, it's clearly magnified this time around, partly because of intensified "storm porn" in the media, which itself is magnified by this being a holiday weekend, when a lot of third-string people are on duty in newsrooms.)
Still, in recent hours, I've been getting inquires from people in South Florida and even North Florida -- people asking about preparations and even the pros and cons of evacuating, and I'm told that some shelves already are being emptied in North Florida supermarkets and some gasoline stations are running dry, which is sort of nuts at this point. So...what to do? What to do?
Just as I'm not a trained forecaster and will not try to predict where or when Irma might strike the U.S. mainland (see last night's post, updated this morning), I also am not a trained emergency manager, so I will not share advice on evacuations.
But I have covered many of these storms and worked closely over the years with forecasters and emergency managers, and there are some things I feel comfortable sharing:
- First, despite what you think you're seeing on the 5 p.m. National Hurricane Center five-day forecast cone, Florida does not appear to be out of the woods. Some of the best forecasters in the profession are becoming alarmed by the possibility that a major catastrophe could -- could -- be in the making for Florida.
- Here's why: Though it's normal human nature to extrapolate from what one sees, that doesn't always apply to five-day forecast cones -- and this could be -- could be -- one of those times. Many of the most reliable models are now converging on a post-five-day solution that features a sharp right-hand turn over or near Cuba and a path straight to South Florida and then, maybe, up the spine of the state -- by a category 3 or 4 hurricane. Now, remember what we discussed yesterday: Models are not forecasts; they are merely one component of an official NHC forecast. But there's no getting around it -- even this far out, that is a frightening prospect that should be taken seriously.
- While we're talking about forecast cones, here is something else to remember: It also is normal human nature to stare at the center of that cone and think, "Well, that's where the core will go -- right down that center lane." Wrong. The forecast cone is the forecast cone -- the core of the storm could roll through any part of it, with the odds of passage at any particular point not all that different than at any other particular point of the cone. This morning, seeking clarification, I asked one of the most experienced federal hurricane forecasters about that and this is what he said: "The odds of a track along the edge of the cone would be somewhat less than a track closer to the middle." Somewhat less.
- OK, so about evacuations and other preparations. As I said, there's no way that I or anyone who is not an emergency manager should be making such recommendations.
For what it's worth, however, the general rules of thumb are: 1. Stay in touch with updates from your local emergency managers. 2. Typically, you only should evacuate if you live in an evacuation zone and have been ordered to evacuate. 3. If that is not the case, you are better off sheltering in place rather than risk getting caught in major traffic jams -- maybe even as the storm arrives. 4. But...if you have reason to feel unsafe -- i.e., you live in a mobile home or you know that your area is prone to flooding or that your house is prone to getting crushed by falling trees, etc., use common sense when it comes to staying or leaving.
- If you live in South Florida, evacuation zones are very clearly drawn and your local emergency managers will provide timely advice and instructions.
- For those of you in Tallahassee or elsewhere in North Florida, I honestly don't know if any hurricane evacuation zones have been designated, other than those near the coast. An element of the local media did a story last week about what might happen here if 50 inches of rain fell and...it wasn't particularly helpful. The story said we would get pretty wet. Nothing about evacuation zones or plans. So...one would hope that local officials would quickly fill that void of information.
- Preparations: Residents throughout the state, even in North Florida, probably would be wise to begin preparing. Slowly, in an orderly fashion, without a sense of doom or panic. Irma remains far away and its projected path very likely could change. Still, why not buy some stuff now that you'll eventually use regardless of what Irma does?
Here are some golden oldies of early preparation tips. Feel free to print them out and/or share them with others.
- If you have a portable generator, buy gasoline for it today (keeping it safely stored) and otherwise get the generator ready for action. Be sure to store it in a spot that would be accessible after the storm.
- If you have a propane grill, buy extra propane.
- Take an inventory of your flashlights and batteries. Make sure that both are more than adequate. Special tip: Those new LED flashlights are terrific and well worth the extra money. Just one medium-sized one, aimed toward the ceiling, illuminated half our house during our three-day Hermine-related blackout almost exactly a year ago.
- If your cell phone battery hasn't been holding a strong charge, this would be a swell time to replace it.
- Don''t let your vehicles' fuel tanks run too low. Also, don't keep topping them off. Be considerate.
- Shopping list: Bottled water, bread and shelf-stable milk (for the kids), instant coffee, peanut butter, dried fruit and other commodities for a week or more. Insect repellent, sunblock, cortisone cream, etc., for use after the storm. Sports drinks - lots of them. Enough meds for everyone in your family for a week or more. Toilet paper (remember: Everything that goes in generally has to come back out.)
- If and when it becomes necessary in coming days, I'll share more specific pre-storm and post-storm tips. My friend and former associate Bryan Norcross today wrote a similar post of advice. A link to it is in the first comment below.
Keep your cool. We don't really know what will happen. Just stay alert and be prepared.
marty merzer
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