Future 3000 K Club

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Gehrig

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My other thread got some decent discussion, so I've decided to make a chart for future 3000 strikeouts club.

attachment.php



Here are the pitchers with the best shot at the 3000 K Club. The chart includes all current members of the 3000 K Club as well as all active pitchers with 1000-2999 career K who have more K at their current age than at least one member of the 3000 K Club at the same age (excluding Phil Niekro, who is a significant outlier).

Above the median:

  • Javier Vazquez: 34, 2536, more than everyone except Ryan, Martinez, W. Johnson, Seaver, Clemens, Blyleven, Carlton
  • CC Sabathia: 30, 2017, more than everyone except W. Johnson, Ryan, Blyleven, Martinez, Seaver, Clemens
  • Felix Hernandez: 25, 1264, more than everyone except Blyleven, W. Johnson
  • Matt Cain: 26, 1085, more than everyone except Blyleven, W. Johnson, Martinez, Clemens, Ryan, Seaver, Sutton
Below the median:

  • Johan Santana: 32, 1877, more than Gibson, R. Johnson, Perry, Schilling
  • Roy Oswalt: 33, 1759, more than Schilling
  • Josh Beckett: 31, 1621, more than Gibson, Perry, Schilling
  • Jake Peavy: 30, 1554, more than Gibson, R. Johnson, Perry, Schilling
  • Carlos Zambrano: 30, 1542, more than Gibson, R. Johnson, Perry, Schilling
  • Dan Haren: 30, 1443, more than Gibson, R. Johnson, Perry, Schilling
  • Brett Myers: 30, 1326, more than Perry, Schilling
  • Justin Verlander: 28, 1215, more than Gibson, Perry, R. Johnson, Schilling
  • Zack Greinke: 27, 1132, more than Smoltz, Gibson, Perry, R. Johnson, Schilling
  • Tim Lincecum: 27, 1127, more than Smoltz, Gibson, Perry, R. Johnson, Schilling
  • Oliver Perez: 29, 1126, tied with R. Johnson, more than Perry, Schilling
  • Cole Hamels: 27, 1091, more than Smoltz, Gibson, Perry, R. Johnson, Schilling
  • Ervin Santana: 28, 1034, more than Gibson, Perry, R. Johnson, Schilling
  • James Shields: 29, 1027, more than Perry, Schilling
 
  • Javier Vazquez: 34, 2536, No bigger inning eater in the last decade plus and will likely get it easily but have no shot at the HOF. Good and reliable but not even All-Star worthy.
  • CC Sabathia: 30, 2017, barring injury he is going to get it and at this point is on a HOF trajectory
  • Felix Hernandez: 25, 1264, Could soar past 3,000 all the way to 4,000 but it's still very early. Needs 10 more years at his current level.
  • Matt Cain: 26, 1085, I'm going to say he doesn't get it. Not consistently good enough to last. Seems like a guy who is good but not great and when he starts to loose his power in 5-6 years he will fall off.
Below the median:

  • Johan Santana: 32, 1877, seemed well on his way 2-3 years ago but injuries make it highly unlikely
  • Roy Oswalt: 33, 1759, too old and never a great K guy anyways
  • Josh Beckett: 31, 1621, injury history makes it unlikely he will last
  • Jake Peavy: 30, 1554, same as Beckett
  • Carlos Zambrano: 30, 1542, his head is bigger than his talent which is a shame because he had the potential to be ridiculously great
  • Dan Haren: 30, 1443, took too long to get to the level he is at
  • Brett Myers: 30, 1326, hahahaha
  • Justin Verlander: 28, 1215, could strikeout 220+ for 6-7 seasons if he maintains his speed pretty well. I'll say he gets it if he stays healthy because even when he starts to lose speed he will be hitting 95-96.
  • Zack Greinke: 27, 1132, don't see him caring to play long enough
  • Tim Lincecum: 27, 1127, you would think he will fall of quick because his lack of size makes it unlikely he maintains velocity well
  • Oliver Perez: 29, 1126, Seriously bro?
  • Cole Hamels: 27, 1091, Too inconsistent from year to year
  • Ervin Santana: 28, 1034, hahahaha
  • James Shields: 29, 1027, too many small injuries that eat away 20-40 K's a year.
 
The real question is if Chris Carpenter can get there. He's already past half and is leading his team to a World Series this year [/crossthread]
 
Cubbiebum said:
The real question is if Chris Carpenter can get there. He's already past half and is leading his team to a World Series this year [/crossthread]

And then the Tigers can have two pitchers chasing 3000. [/crosscrossthread]
 
Guy_Incognito said:
Cubbiebum said:
The real question is if Chris Carpenter can get there. He's already past half and is leading his team to a World Series this year [/crossthread]

And then the Tigers can have two pitchers chasing 3000. [/crosscrossthread]
AND a centerfielder!
 
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sgreenwell said:
If Derek Jeter was a pitcher though, how many K's would he have?

When his hitting career is done, he's going to become a pitcher. He'll be the first person elected as a hitter and then again as a pitcher.
 

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