China vs. India

[Batman]

This is one of those things that first seems weird, then makes you raise an eyebrow, then wonder what it means.

China apparently has been building up some troops and making a show of force along its border with India.

Images 'show China structures' on India border

A couple of weeks ago, the two sides got into a skirmish in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed. I don't think the Chinese issued a casualty total (not surprisingly). Reports have been a little sketchy, but it was basically a hand-to-hand brawl on the side of a mountain. No shots were fired, but troops on both sides used "rocks and clubs" while fighting in the dark of night, and some of the deaths of the Indian soldiers were caused by them being thrown off of cliffs. From the sound of it, it was probably a couple of platoons out on patrol that stumbled into each other in the dark, in a place neither thought the other should be.

India-China border: At least 20 soldiers killed in clash in Aksai Chin-Ladakh area - CNN

The incident has not gone over well in India. This is the first time in 40 or 50 years there have been any serious tensions between the countries. Politicians are calling for economic boycotts and divesting themselves of Chinese products. That won't be easy because, much like the U.S., cheap Chinese goods and supply chains have flooded the Indian market.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ca1f76-b4e2-11ea-9a1d-d3db1cbe07ce_story.html

Both countries have tried to keep things to a simmer and use diplomatic channels to ease tensions. I don't think there's a chance of this thing going nuclear any time soon. Just thought it was interesting that China was ruffling some feathers in its own neighborhood, and two countries you don't ever hear of having a beef with each other are starting to literally throw some rocks across the fence.

 

[TrooperBari]

Just thought it was interesting that China was ruffling some feathers in its own neighborhood, and two countries you don't ever hear of having a beef with each other are starting to literally throw some rocks across the fence.

Yeah, there's been beef aplenty for years. You just don't hear about it much in the US, and when you do it's usually in the context of some simplistic, quasi-realist analysis that assumes India will leap into America's arms since they have a common enemy in China (conveniently forgetting, among other things, there was a reason the US was pro-Pakistan long before it was pro-India). Part of the problem is you have populist, fervently nationalist leaders and parties on both sides (Modi/BJP, Xi/CCP) that have made being Proud, Tough, and Someone to be Reckoned With (TM) an essential part of their platform. When not backing down is the only approach that fits with your internal and external messaging, it severely limits your options outside of escalation.

One notable thing is the People's Daily and the Global Times (its English-language arm) keep running photos and video like this, showing just how Tough and Ready to Fight the PLA is. In the context of the clash in Ladakh, Taiwan, the new Hong Kong national security law (hoo boy), militarization of the South China Sea, and more, there is a definite sense China sees enemies everywhere and will do everything it deems necessary to uphold its interests. Of course, that leads to the classic security dilemma -- is China ramping up its militarism because it perceives a coalition (US, India, Japan, Australia, etc.) forming against it, or is a coalition to balance against China forming because of China's increasing militarism?



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[maumann]

It's always been assumed the Pakistani-Indian flashpoint could be the spark for global nuclear war. I shudder to think how much worse a Sino-Indian escalation would be. How about a nice game of chess?

 

[Shropshire Slasher]

O/U on nukes is 0.5. I’ll take the under.

 

[Batman]

Some new developments in a world hotspot no one is paying attention to.
India has moved 50,000 troops to its border with China after a series of skirmishes and border clashes over the past year or so.
Between this, the U.S., Taiwan, and most of the countries in the South China Sea, China is starting to accumulate quite a list of countries that they're seriously pissing off. Everybody has been focusing on Taiwan as the most likely flashpoint for World War III breaking out, but it appears just as likely to happen over some obscure mountain passes in the Himalayas. If India and China get into a serious shooting war it's the kind of thing that could quickly drag a couple dozen countries into it, on one side or the other.

India has redirected at least 50,000 additional troops to its border with China in a historic shift toward an offensive military posture against the world’s second-biggest economy.

Although the two countries battled in the Himalayas in 1962, India’s strategic focus has primarily been Pakistan since the British left the subcontinent, with the long-time rivals fighting three wars over the disputed region of Kashmir. Yet since the deadliest India-China fighting in decades last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has sought to ease tensions with Islamabad and concentrate primarily on countering Beijing.

India Shifts 50,000 Troops to China Border in Historic Move

 

[Scout]

Is oil involved?

 

[Batman]

Is oil involved?

Near as I can tell, no. It's a pretty basic border dispute on the surface, and a layer deeper it's another example of China testing the boundaries with its neighbors and newfound power. India just appears to be a little more pissed off, and ready, willing and able to stand up to China, than some of the other countries in that part of the world.

 

[Tarheel316]

China vs. India is not a fair fight.

 

[Spartan Squad]

China vs. India is not a fair fight.

India does have nukes…

 

[TrooperBari]

Is oil involved?

Not really, no. Part of it is a territorial dispute dating back to confusion around borders following the Partition -- so unlike the British to make a mess of drawing borders. Thanks to some slick maneuvering by Zhou Enlai and possibly some naivete by Nehru and independent India's early leaders, China got the drop on India in 1962 and occupied Aksai Chin and Tibet, which it's held to this day. (In fairness to the Nehru government, it was quite the about-face after China and India had been so close in founding the Non-Aligned Movement and rejecting the Cold War logic of the world being split into American and Soviet spheres.)

The rest is mostly about competing for regional influence and domestic politics. India (not unreasonably) is irked by China's everything-short-of-an-alliance relationship with Pakistan and its making deep diplomatic inroads with every other country in its immediate vicinity -- save Bhutan, which is the source of China's latest spike in border friction. New Delhi is so worried about being encircled it's casting about for friends and even trying to make nice with Pakistan, the Kashmiris, and the Taliban to lower the heat on its western front, but good luck overcoming those trust deficits.

Meanwhile, China (not unreasonably) feels it's being encircled by both the increased US military presence in East Asia -- the South China Sea in particular -- and India's eagerness to join the new Quad security grouping with the US, Australia, and Japan, with South Korea and maybe even Vietnam being invited in the future. Of course, all the public statements from the US, its allies, NATO, the Quad, the G7, etc. say they only want to compete with China rather than seek conflict with it, but viewed from Beijing that's a distinction without a difference given all the freedom of navigation operations, overflights, and other, rather pointed activities by outsiders taking place in waters and airspace it views as its legitimate territory. Hell, the British, the French, even the Germans are sending ships into the neighborhood.

As for domestic politics, Modi and India's BJP-led government need some kind of good news. The country's pandemic response has been shambolic, and scapegoats are thin on the ground given the BJP's dominance. Showing off the government's anti-China credentials and flexing for nationalist cred is about the only card Modi can play at the moment. (One might well ask how necessary it is given that Congress under Rahul Gandhi struggles to offer even token resistance, but that's a different discussion.)

Don't think China is free from domestic political concerns, either, just because it's a single-party authoritarian state with no* elections. (* = strictly speaking it does have direct elections, but only at the lowest level of government.) Xi Jinping and the Communist Party of China have built their credibility on improving the lot of the average Chinese citizen, inspiring the "Chinese dream", and rejuvenating the nation after a "century of humiliation", and China's spectacular economic successes have muted any meaningful challenge to the state's authority. However, that economic growth is tailing off -- not unexpectedly since it's easier to create eye-popping GDP growth when you're working from a low base (see: Mongolia) versus a complex, developed economy like China's -- and when combined with the increasingly likely prospect that China will grow old before it gets rich, there is a risk the government and the Party might struggle to continue bringing home the bacon in the near future. It's no surprise, then, that Xi and the Party -- whose 100th birthday is Thursday -- are going hard on promoting Xi Jinping Thought, ideological conformity, and a greater sense of patriotism among Chinese youth (not all of whom are taking to the message). Makes sense to have an ideology and an external enemy around which to rally if and/or when even middle-class Chinese start getting left behind.

 

[Tarheel316]

India does have nukes…

Of course. But doesn’t China have a lot more?

 

[Spartan Squad]

Of course. But doesn’t China have a lot more?

I think India has enough to enact sufficient damage that China won’t be having a victory parade.

 

[Batman]

Meanwhile, China (not unreasonably) feels it's being encircled by both the increased US military presence in East Asia -- the South China Sea in particular -- and India's eagerness to join the new Quad security grouping with the US, Australia, and Japan, with South Korea and maybe even Vietnam being invited in the future. Of course, all the public statements from the US, its allies, NATO, the Quad, the G7, etc. say they only want to compete with China rather than seek conflict with it, but viewed from Beijing that's a distinction without a difference given all the freedom of navigation operations, overflights, and other, rather pointed activities by outsiders taking place in waters and airspace it views as its legitimate territory. Hell, the British, the French, even the Germans are sending ships into the neighborhood.

A lot of that response, though, was provoked by the Chinese suddenly building man-made island fortresses in the middle of international waters (which also happen to be smack dab in the middle of highly-trafficked shipping lanes) and then claiming it and the surrounding area as their own. Even though a number of other countries already had much more valid claims to it, if anyone did at all.
The U.S. didn't suddenly decide to poke the hornet's nest with its freedom of navigation operations. Some of it was likely at the request of countries in the area that couldn't do it themselves, and some of it was necessary to keep the Chinese from potentially harassing or even attacking international shipping in a vital part of the world.

 

[Justin_Rice]

First-world countries have shown a real resistance to engaging in actual shooting wars with other nuclear powers. When some non-rational actor throws this convention aside ...