2014 NFL predictions thread

[Mark2010]

OK, it's only July, but what the heck......

AFC West - Denver Broncos
AFC East - New England Patriots
AFC South - Indianapolis Colts
AFC North - Pittsburgh Steelers
Wild Card 1 - San Diego Chargers
Wild Card 2 - Miami Dolphins

NFC West - San Francisco 49ers
NFC East - New York Giants
NFC South - New Orleans Saints
NFC North - Chicago Bears
Wild Card 1 - Green Bay Packers
Wild Card 2 - Seattle Seahawks
* There will be a 10-win team on the outside in the NFC, while an 8-8 team qualifies for postseason in the AFC.

NFC Championship Game - Chicago over New Orleans
AFC Championship Game - Denver over Indianapolis

Super Bowl - Chicago over Denver

MVP - Andrew Luck, Indianapolis
Defensive Player of the Year - Jason Pierre-Paul, NY Giants
Offensive Player of the Year - Drew Brees, New Orleans
Offensive Rookie of the Year - Sammy Watkins, Buffalo
Defensive Rookie of the Year - Anthony Barr, Minnesota
Coach of the Year - Marc Trestman, Chicago
First coach fired - Rex Ryan, NY Jets

 

[NDJournalist]

I added the worst teams in each conference for fun.

AFC West - Broncos
AFC East - Dolphins
AFC South - Texans
AFC North - Bengals
Wild Card 1 - Colts
Wild Card 2 - Chiefs
AFC Worst team - Jets (4-12)

NFC West - Rams
NFC East - Cowboys
NFC South - Saints
NFC North - Packers
Wild Card 1 - Bears
Wild Card 2 - Bucs
NFC Worst record - Panthers (2-14)
NFC Championship Game - Bucs over Saints
AFC Championship Game - Broncos over Dolphins

Super Bowl - Bucs over Broncos

MVP - Aaron Rodgers
Defensive Player of the Year - Luke Kuechly
Offensive Player of the Year - Aaron Rodgers
Offensive Rookie of the Year - Manziel
Defensive Rookie of the Year - Clowney
Coach of the Year - Lovie Smith
First coach fired - Ron Rivera

 

[Mark2010]

Wow, going out on a limb there. But, hey, that's what makes summer fun.

Every year we see 1-2 surprise turnaround teams and at least 1-2 playoff teams go in the tank. I think Cincinnati may be one of those in the tank. They lost both coordinators to head coaching jobs and their quarterback is taking a lot of flak, despite pretty respectable play.

Beyond the big three of Denver, Indy and New England, the AFC looks like a total crapshoot. Only a couple of teams that I would call longshots to make the playoffs. 8-8 could well get in as teams start knocking each other out.

 

[outofplace]

They quite proved themselves to be chopped liver when it came time to play a physical team.

Yet somehow they went 13-3 in the regular season and made it to the Super Bowl. Guess there just weren't many physical teams in the NFL last season.

 

[3_Octave_Fart]

You're an idiot or don't understand what you're watching if you think Denver played anything close to a physical brand of football last season. And, no, there weren't physical teams in the AFC. It was a down year for the conference.

 

[exmediahack]

I don't bet Super Bowl odds but I love me some win-loss total parlays. I'll be in LV next month.

While I generally "play" the college football W/L numbers (heavy on the SEC this year -- like Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama to cover their numbers and Mizzou, Vandy and Texas A&M to be unders)

Any glaring "value" in the NFL Win/Loss World from the trusty degenerates here?

Gut tells me. Over: BEARS (and I hate the Bears), SAINTS, COLTS, EAGLES. Under: CHIEFS, LIONS, COWBOYS, VIKINGS.

Broncos 11 (over -115) 13
49ers 11 (over +100) 12
Seahawks 11(over -110) 13
Packers 10 (over -105) 8
Patriots 10 (over -125) 12
Saints 9.5 (over -105) 11
Bengals 9 (over -115) 11
Colts 9 (over -115) 11
Steelers 9 (over -110) 8
Bears 8.5 (over -105) 8
Eagles 8.5 (over -125) 10
Panthers 8.5 (over -120) 12
Ravens 8.5 (over -110) 8
Texans 8.5 (over -110) 2
Chargers 8 (over -120) 9
Chiefs 8 (over -125) 11
Cowboys 8 (over -120) 8
Falcons 8 (over -120) 4
Lions 8 (over -115) 7
Dolphins 7.5 (-over -125) 8
Cardinals 7 (over -120) 10
Giants 7 (over -110) 7
Redskins 7 (over -110) 3
Bills 6.5 (over -110) 6
Browns 6.5 (over -105) 4
Buccaneers 6.5 (over -130) 4
Jets 6.5 (over -120) 8
Rams 6.5 (over -120) 7
Titans 6.5 (over -110) 7
Vikings 6.5 (over -110) 5
Raiders 5 (over +110) 4
Jaguars 4.5 (over +100) 4

 

[DanOregon]

I really think you are putting yourself out there banking on Peyton to have another great year. Might be an injury, he might finally show his age, but the Broncos season is riding on the arm of a 38-year-old two years removed from serious neck surgery. Yeah, even if he declines 20 percent, he's still better than most quarterbacks in the league - but it could go quickly. See Favre, Brett.

 

[BurnsWhenIPee]

I absolutely love the over on the Saints and under on the Chiefs on that W/L bet. And I think the Rams are going to have a very tough climb to reach their number. Would probably bet the under on them.

 

[exmediahack]

I really think you are putting yourself out there banking on Peyton to have another great year. Might be an injury, he might finally show his age, but the Broncos season is riding on the arm of a 38-year-old two years removed from serious neck surgery. Yeah, even if he declines 20 percent, he's still better than most quarterbacks in the league - but it could go quickly. See Favre, Brett.

I'll say it.

2014 Broncos has all of the feel of 2010 Vikings yet it won't be a full implosion. There won't be a 2010 Packers-like squad that gets hot towards the end this year in the AFC West.

Denver's only saving grace is that the division is weak. The Chiefs will have a "fallback" year and the Chargers don't have the horses.

If I thought Denver would go 9-7, I'd include them on the "UNDER" teams for my parlay picks. I see them at 10-6 but a rather mundane 10-6. Good enough to win the division but not to escape the wild-card round or, if they do, to meekly bow out to the Patriots, Ravens or Colts.

 

[exmediahack]

Now playing the "week by week" prediction game for various teams.

First thoughts.
How do the Chiefs not start out 1-5?
Bears could win 11 with the smart coach/good QB combo.
Cowboys could easily lose their last 6 games.
Colts still get two games against Jax, Houston, Tennessee plus the Bengals, Browns and Dallas in December. Winning ten feels way too easy.

I'd love to say my Packers will win 12 games this year but the Rodgers/McCarthy dynamic keeps me away. I wonder if this will be the year they finally have the Jeff George-June Jones sideline battle that is barely under the surface.

 

[Riptide]

They quite proved themselves to be chopped liver when it came time to play a physical team.

Yet somehow they went 13-3 in the regular season and made it to the Super Bowl. Guess there just weren't many physical teams in the NFL last season.

The Broncos will electrify now that Peyton is running the read option.

 

[DanOregon]

I don't bet Super Bowl odds but I love me some win-loss total parlays. I'll be in LV next month.

While I generally "play" the college football W/L numbers (heavy on the SEC this year -- like Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama to cover their numbers and Mizzou, Vandy and Texas A&M to be unders)

Any glaring "value" in the NFL Win/Loss World from the trusty degenerates here?

Gut tells me. Over: BEARS (and I hate the Bears), SAINTS, COLTS, EAGLES. Under: CHIEFS, LIONS, COWBOYS, VIKINGS.

Broncos 11 (over -115) 13
49ers 11 (over +100) 12
Seahawks 11(over -110) 13
Packers 10 (over -105) 8
Patriots 10 (over -125) 12
Saints 9.5 (over -105) 11
Bengals 9 (over -115) 11
Colts 9 (over -115) 11
Steelers 9 (over -110) 8
Bears 8.5 (over -105) 8
Eagles 8.5 (over -125) 10
Panthers 8.5 (over -120) 12
Ravens 8.5 (over -110) 8
Texans 8.5 (over -110) 2
Chargers 8 (over -120) 9
Chiefs 8 (over -125) 11
Cowboys 8 (over -120) 8
Falcons 8 (over -120) 4
Lions 8 (over -115) 7
Dolphins 7.5 (-over -125) 8
Cardinals 7 (over -120) 10
Giants 7 (over -110) 7
Redskins 7 (over -110) 3
Bills 6.5 (over -110) 6
Browns 6.5 (over -105) 4
Buccaneers 6.5 (over -130) 4
Jets 6.5 (over -120) 8
Rams 6.5 (over -120) 7
Titans 6.5 (over -110) 7
Vikings 6.5 (over -110) 5
Raiders 5 (over +110) 4
Jaguars 4.5 (over +100) 4

I'd love to get the breakdown of volume on various teams. Which odds have moved the most and least. Which teams are getting the most and least action.
Interconference games will probably decide most of these bets. AFC W v. NFC W, AFC N v. NFC S, AFC S v. NFC E, AFC E v. NFC S. I have to think all the NFC east teams should at least take two from the AFC S.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

I have to wonder if the skepticism here about the Broncos is based on the "last game I saw" fallacy. They got the **** kicked out of them in the Super Bowl, but to stretch that into a suspicion Manning is going to fall off the table seems like a big leap to me. Brady's all of one year younger than Peyton, and nobody, quite rightly, is suspecting he's reaching the end of the line, even though the Pats' last game of 2013 was also a dismal if less spectacular failure. FWIW, the total wins lines seem to be based on a macro forecast of much more parity in the league than last season. I'd think New England, New Orleans and the Colts would have to struggle mightily during the season to hit their numbers on the nose.

 

[outofplace]

You're an idiot or don't understand what you're watching if you think Denver played anything close to a physical brand of football last season. And, no, there weren't physical teams in the AFC. It was a down year for the conference.

And once again, fart boy relies on name calling when the glaring flaws in his arguments are pointed out. You are one of those fans who can't think past the last game you watched and somehow believe that the team that lost the Super Bowl sucks.

 

[DanOregon]

It isn't that the Broncos were blown out, the last team to lose a Super Bowl and make it back to the next one were the Bills twenty years ago. It's that Manning's production at his age is unprecedented (and I wouldn't be surprised to see Brady hit a similar wall, he was sacked more times last year - 40 - than he was since his first year). One amazing stat for Manning. He's never been sacked more than 29 times (4th season) in a season. Since the 29, he's only been sacked more than 20 times in three seasons (23, 21 and 21)

 

[Rusty Shackleford]

AFC West - Broncos
AFC East - Patriots
AFC South - Colts
AFC North - Steelers
Wild Card 1 - Texans
Wild Card 2 - Bengals

NFC West - 49ers
NFC East - Dallas
NFC South - Saints
NFC North - Bears
Wild Card 1 - Lions
Wild Card 2 - Eagles

NFC Championship Game - 49ers over Bears
AFC Championship Game - Colts over Broncos

Super Bowl - Colts over 49ers

MVP -
Defensive Player of the Year - Robert Quinn
Offensive Player of the Year - Andrew Luck
Offensive Rookie of the Year - Bishop Sankey
Defensive Rookie of the Year - Clowney
Coach of the Year -
First coach fired -

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Dan, it's one thing to say the Broncos won't get back to the Super Bowl, which is reasonable and in fact a prediction I agree with, and another to say they're going to struggle to reach double-digit wins., since even weaker Denver teams have had a pretty significant home field advantage. It's unlikely Manning will be as productive as in 2013, since he set all those records, but it seems to me equally unlikely he'll plunge below career norms.

 

[Captain_Kirk]

I'll go the Raiders and Bills over

 

[RecoveringJournalist]

They quite proved themselves to be chopped liver when it came time to play a physical team.

Yet somehow they went 13-3 in the regular season and made it to the Super Bowl. Guess there just weren't many physical teams in the NFL last season.

The Broncos will electrify now that Peyton is running the read option.

Well done.

 

[exmediahack]

What Seattle also did in the Super Bowl was provide the blueprint on how to beat the Broncos.

Granted, most teams don't have the defensive talent of the 2013 Seahawks but they found the proper combination to make Peyton Manning incredibly uncomfortable.