Why does Manny Machado suck now?

[Dick Whitman]

Machado finished in the top five in A.L. MVP voting each of the last two seasons. When I saw him hit three home runs in the first three innings of a game against the White Sox last year in the third row behind home plate, in seats I can afford because I have been such a failure at life, I told my son that he was watching a future Hall of Famer.

Well, now he sucks.

Check it out:

2015: .286/.359/.502
2016: .294/.343/.533
2017: .214/.286/.421

According to Fangraphs, his K rate has gone from 15.6 percent to 17.2 percent to 21.4 percent. His line drive rate has gone from 17.8 percent to 20.0 percent to 13.4 percent. His BABIP has dropped from .297 to .309 to .227.

I suspect there is a version of FIP for hitters that considers the elements of their hitting like line drive and strikeout rate and spits out what they should be hitting.

But on the surface at least, man, does Manny Machado suck now.

 

[Big Circus]

That is an astonishingly low BABIP.

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

Been playing hurt.

 

[Dick Whitman]

That is an astonishingly low BABIP.

I know. That's why I was wondering whether there was some back-of-the-napkin stat that takes the various elements of his batted balls - exit velocity, flight, etc. - and spits out an xBABIP or something like that.

 

[Dick Whitman]

Been playing hurt.

Yeah? Like Harper last year.

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

Maybe. I'm sure they'll reveal how injured he really is (was) at the end of the season. He has been dealing with hand and wrist injuries for weeks.

Or maybe all that stress from the Red Sox hating him has affected him.

 

[LongTimeListener]

This can't be real. I was told just last week that he is the Face Of Base.

Manny Machado is the face of MLB's new identity

 

[Big Circus]

This can't be real. I was told just last week that he is the Face Of Base.

Manny Machado is the face of MLB's new identity

Why can't you see The Sign?

 

[ChrisLong]

Maybe. I'm sure they'll reveal how injured he really is (was) at the end of the season. He has been dealing with hand and wrist injuries for weeks.

Or maybe all that stress from the Red Sox hating him has affected him.

Don't post his injury info here, you'll **** off somebody.

 

[SnarkShark]

In my opinion he got rattled early on when the Red Sox wouldn't stop throwing at him. Tried to make them pay with every swing and hasn't recovered from that change in attitude.

That sweet, smooth swing doesn't show up very often. I do see him frequently almost fall over, though, because he's off balance and swinging so damn hard.

 

[dixiehack]

Maybe he's exiting the rat race to focus more on family.

 

[TyWebb]

Because you touch yourself at night.

 

[Dick Whitman]

Maybe he's exiting the rat race to focus more on family.

Focus on the Family: Helping Families Thrive

 

[qtlaw]

Too early to sweat it; remember in the mid 2000s when it looked like Jeter was done because he was under the Mendoza line in late May/early June? IIRC he finished over .300. (I never doubted him again.)

 

[SnarkShark]

Line today is pretty good.

 

[Dick Whitman]

Line today is pretty good.

These threads are slump busters!

 

[bigpern23]

I know. That's why I was wondering whether there was some back-of-the-napkin stat that takes the various elements of his batted balls - exit velocity, flight, etc. - and spits out an xBABIP or something like that.

xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) probably fits.
Glossary | Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) | MLB.com

Machado ranks 74th on the xwOBA leaderboard, which probably largely attributable to his league average launch angle. He's hitting it hard (average exit velo of 94 mph), but low, with a launch angle of about 12 degrees.

 

[Dick Whitman]

xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) probably fits.
Glossary | Expected Weighted On-base Average (xwOBA) | MLB.com

Machado ranks 74th on the xwOBA leaderboard, which probably largely attributable to his league average launch angle. He's hitting it hard (average exit velo of 94 mph), but low, with a launch angle of about 12 degrees.

That's what I'm looking for. Where do you find the leaderboard?

 

[bigpern23]

BaseballSavant.mlb.com is the site. Follow the link below and just scroll down past all the search terms. You'll see the leaderboard sorted according to xwOBA. You can really sort the **** out of it if you want.

Statcast Search

 

[bigpern23]

If you look elsewhere on the site, such as the Statcast Leaderboard, you'll see stats such as exit velo, launch angle, barrels, etc.
Statcast Leaderboard