Run for the Roses Running Thread

[Chef2]

Chef's award-winning useless prediction:

Revolutionary to win.
Normandy Invasion to place.
Verrazano to show.

 

[silvercharm]

I'd like to see the horse that draws the rail before making a prediction. The rail horse, unless something bizarre happens like a Mine That Bird opening, will have to run like Secretariat to win.

 

[Songbird]

Is Mike Smith riding? If so I'll take his horse.

 

[trifectarich]

Is Mike Smith riding? If so I'll take his horse.

Smith is on Palace Malice, likely to be 20-to-1 or thereabouts. But you never know. If he runs the best race of his life and some other horses take a wrong turn . . .

Friday's Kentucky Oaks looks like one hell of a race.

 

[Chef2]

Has anyone on here dropped a grand on the mint julep there?

I know it's an absurd amount to spend, but to do it once would be a lifelong memory.

 

[trifectarich]

1 Black Onyx Joe Bravo 50-1
2 Oxbow Gary Stevens 30-1
3 Revolutionary Calvin Borel 10-1
4 Golden Soul Robby Albarado 50-1
5 Normandy Invasion Javier Castellano 12-1
6 Mylute Rosie Napravnik 15-1
7 Giant Finish Jose Espinoza 50-1
8 Goldencents Kevin Krigger 5-1
9 Overanalyze Rafael Bejarano 15-1
10 Palace Malice Mike Smith 20-1
11 Lines of Battle Ryan Moore 30-1
12 Itsmyluckyday Elvis Trujillo 15-1
13 Falling Sky Luis Saez 50-1
14 Verrazano John Velazquez 4-1
15 Charming Kitten Edgar Prado 20-1
16 Orb Joel Rosario 7-2
17 Will Take Charge Jon Court 20-1
18 Frac Daddy Victor Lebron 50-1
19 Java’s War Julien Leparoux 15-1
20 Vyjack Garrett Gomez 15-1

 

[Chef2]

1 Black Onyx Joe Bravo 50-1
2 Oxbow Gary Stevens 30-1
3 Revolutionary Calvin Borel 10-1
4 Golden Soul Robby Albarado 50-1
5 Normandy Invasion Javier Castellano 12-1
6 Mylute Rosie Napravnik 15-1
7 Giant Finish Jose Espinoza 50-1
8 Goldencents Kevin Krigger 5-1
9 Overanalyze Rafael Bejarano 15-1
10 Palace Malice Mike Smith 20-1
11 Lines of Battle Ryan Moore 30-1
12 Itsmyluckyday Elvis Trujillo 15-1
13 Falling Sky Luis Saez 50-1
14 Verrazano John Velazquez 4-1
15 Charming Kitten Edgar Prado 20-1
16 Orb Joel Rosario 7-2
17 Will Take Charge Jon Court 20-1
18 Frac Daddy Victor Lebron 50-1
19 Java’s War Julien Leparoux 15-1
20 Vyjack Garrett Gomez 15-1

3-5-14
That works.
March 5 is my wife's birthday.
14 was my son's baseball number for many years. His favorite player as a kid was John Buck.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Keep 9 in mind for your exotics.

 

[imjustagirl]

Thank god Robby Albarado turned out to be a wife-abusing asshole so I don't have to put money on his ****ty horse.

I literally have seen/read nothing leading up to this race. Not working in "sports" exclusively any more, it kind of snuck up on me in that I realized two weeks ago and I was like "****, I didn't watch any of the leadup races." I'll do some reading on it today and tomorrow, but my picks will not be scientific in any way. :D

 

[trifectarich]

This is a tough one to figure out.

If the track comes up muddy, all my backing goes on Vyjack (20).

In any other Derby I'd be all over Revolutionary (3) and Mylute (6) because they're likely to be passing a lot of tired horses in the stretch, but I think their chances are compromised because the pace for the first half-mile or so is apt to be more than reasonable, maybe even slow. I wouldn't know Kevin Krigger if he walked into my office right now and I hate betting jockeys who haven't been in a race of this magnitude with all those potential traffic problems, but to win, I'll try Goldencents. In my trifectas, I've got 6, 8, 12, 14 and 20 on top, and I'll have a $2 hunch bet on 50-to-1 Falling Sky.

Good luck to all.

 

[silvercharm]

I don't typically look for chalk in races of this size, but Orb looks the part of a winner. Peaking, tactical and bred to run on an off track. He'll probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of 9-2. Probably use Vyjack, Will Take Charge, Goldencents and Normandy Invasion on the bottom in exactas.

 

[DanOregon]

Mylute. The odds get really funky with many novice betters skewing the odds, which is why you can get good odds on a horse with a pretty realistic shot at winning.
I don't know anything about Mylute, it could be Myluckyday.

 

[RedHotChiliPrepper]

I think Orb and Verrazano are head and shoulders the best two horses, and Verrazano is clearly the most talented horse. But I had Orb as my winner even before he won the Florida Derby, so I'm sticking with him. I think Java's War is the best closer in the field and could sneak into the top three or four. And call me crazy, but I really like the Irish horse Lines of Battle. Reminds me a lot of I'll Have Another from last year. Won't do any one thing spectacularly, but is just a real solid horse.

I think it's going to be a really fast pace, like under 23 quarter and about 45 half mile which could eliminate Goldencents because he didn't run well in a really fast pace in the San Felipe. Plus, a really quick early pace I think favors someone like Java's War who can kick strong for 3/16 to a quarter mile if needed.

That being said, I'm going to play Orb, Revolutionary and Java's War in a trifecta box tomorrow. But I have no confidence in that pick whatsoever.

 

[MileHigh]

I like Mylute as well. The Run for the Roses with a jockey named Rosie? Why not? Also like Normandy Invasion.

And please, no Goldencents just so we don't have to listen to all the Rick Pitino "owned" horse winning when he owns all of 5 percent.

 

[imjustagirl]

I put $10 to show on Revolutionary. I literally did four minutes of research, so I didn't want to spend much or do anything with a box or wheel.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

I'm looking at a 16, 12, 10, 9, 8 trifecta box.

If the track is sloppy, I'll play 2, 5, 3, 17.

 

[Steak Snabler]

Pretty interesting column by the C-J's Adam Himmelsbach on the guy who runs the starting gate at Churchill Downs, and everything that goes into his job:

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20130503/COLUMNISTS02/305030145/Adam-Himmelsbach-Scott-Jordan-pushing-button-open-gates-really-finish-line

 

[MileHigh]

Post time.

 

[murphyc]

Like usual, I picked my horse solely by name. Maybe itsmyluckyday.

 

[MileHigh]

Orb from way back.