Official running NFL Week 2 thread

[jr/shotglass]

And Kirk Cousins can ring up 41 points on someone. And Drew Stanton can get the job done. There is less of a gap between the elite and the lunchpail guy Michigan State grad at that position than we think.

 

[LongTimeListener]

J.J. Watt lines up as goal-line tight end, catches touchdown pass.

 

[amraeder]

Yep. Didn't matter. Still the wrong call, but they'll win anyway. Probably not good news for some in the SJ survivor league.

That would have been way too early to go for two. Six points is two field goals, and not having that point will come back to bite you more in the long run. Look at it this way -- if they don't get the two and it stays 22-17, another field goal wouldn't have given the Browns a two-score lead.

That's true. There's definitely costs to going for 2 and missing, but the benefits way outweigh the costs, because, frankly the costs are fairly few and far between. Late in the third quarter there's not many ways being up 5 is worse than being up 6. But there's a huge difference between being up 6 and being up 7.

 

[Steak Snabler]

Saints lose again on a last-second field goal to fall to 0-2.

Welp, that season was fun while it lasted.

Figure they have to go 8-0 at home and at least 3-3 on the road, and they have November/December games left at Pittsburgh and Chicago.

Ain't happenin'.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Yep. Didn't matter. Still the wrong call, but they'll win anyway. Probably not good news for some in the SJ survivor league.

That would have been way too early to go for two. Six points is two field goals, and not having that point will come back to bite you more in the long run. Look at it this way -- if they don't get the two and it stays 22-17, another field goal wouldn't have given the Browns a two-score lead.

That's true. There's definitely costs to going for 2 and missing, but the benefits way outweigh the costs, because, frankly the costs are fairly few and far between. Late in the third quarter there's not many ways being up 5 is worse than being up 6. But there's a huge difference between being up 6 and being up 7.

You're looking far too favorably on the assumption that they will make it, without very much benefit. First off, at that point in the game, the chance that you're dealing with the other team only scoring one more time -- especially a team like the Saints -- is pretty low. But that is what happened, so let's play it out under the go-for-two scenario.

--Browns fail, lead 22-17
--Saints score TD, go for two, succeed -- they lead 25-22
--Browns are kicking that last-second FG not to win but to tie

And even if the Browns had succeeded with the two, to make it 24-17, they'd still in all likelihood have to score again to win.

The Panthers lost the Super Bowl to the Patriots with a scenario a lot like this one, because they started going for two early in the fourth quarter and then had to chase that point (and miss again) the next time they scored. If they had just taken the XP both times, Vinatieri would have been kicking to tie it.

 

[amraeder]

LTL, I guess we'll agree to disagree - and mentally I'm not overestimating their odds of making it. I'd say it's somewhere in the 42-49% range of making it. But the benefit of making it way outweighs the cost. I'd argue even the scenario you postulated isn't that bad for the Browns. They still get to go to OT, and the only way it happens is if NO converts a 2-pointer. Really I think the most likely scenario where you'd regret it is that the Saints make 2 FGs and the Browns score 0 more points. And again, I'm not saying there's NO way going for 2 backfires. It definitely can. It's just that not going for it will come back to haunt you more than going for it will.

Anyway, maybe something we can agree on: That FG call on 4th down was a horrible call by GB. Gotta go for it there.

 

[Songbird]

Browns scored to go up 22-17 in the third quarter. Instead of going for 2, which seemed like the obvious call at the time, they went for 1. Now they've got the ball, down 1, 24-23, with 3 minutes left, at their own 4-yard line.

That's way too early to start chasing points. It's 23-17. You've proven that you can score on the Saints. Take the point and continue with the good orderly direction.

 

[jr/shotglass]

Think I'm now going to stop listening to the talk that Antonio Gates is done until he's holding his retirement news conference.

 

[Gehrig]

RGIII and out is now RGIII and out for the season?

This might be good in the long run. Gives them a good long look at Cousins.

 

[steveu]

Might not be a bad thing. Earlier when I said RGIII may have played his last snap as a Redskin starting QB... that may not be a bad thing. Dan Snyder's a master when it comes to interference and making lives miserable, but this may SAVE his team.

 

[amraeder]

To keep beating this horse. KC scores with 7:11 left in the fourth. Kick to make it a 21-17 game. GO FOR TWO!

 

[outofplace]

I know the Chargers have some ability on offense, but 30 points against the Seahawks? How did that happen?

 

[MileHigh]

Not over in Denver. But this cartoon from last week is apt for this week too.

 

[ColdCat]

If there was any doubt Marty Morningwheg is a dumbass, he runs down the sidelines calling a timeout (which as a coordinator he cannot do), the refs give it to the Jets anyway right as the ball is snapped and Geno Smith throws a touchdown pass, which of course is wiped out by the timeout. Jets later turn it over on downs.
Once the man won the coin toss at the start of OT and chose to take the wind, that should have been it for him as a coach, but no, more teams kept giving him a chance.

 

[Guy_Incognito]

If there was any doubt Marty Morningwheg is a dumbass, he runs down the sidelines calling a timeout (which as a coordinator he cannot do), the refs give it to the Jets anyway right as the ball is snapped and Geno Smith throws a touchdown pass, which of course is wiped out by the timeout. Jets later turn it over on downs.
Once the man won the coin toss at the start of OT and chose to take the wind, that should have been it for him as a coach, but no, more teams kept giving him a chance.

Would he be any smarter if Geno had thrown a pick?

 

[LongTimeListener]

To keep beating this horse. KC scores with 7:11 left in the fourth. Kick to make it a 21-17 game. GO FOR TWO!

Now there's a good debate, but that's way different from the Browns one you mentioned that happened in the third quarter.

But look how things worked out -- the Chiefs ended up down 24-17 and needing only a TD and PAT. What if it was 24-16 and they got the TD but missed the 2XP?

 

[LongTimeListener]

Richard Sherman, not so chatty. From San Diego U-T writers:

Michael Gehlken @UTgehlken · 38m
Same word from multiple Chargers in reference to Richard Sherman: "Exposed." Sherman did not speak with media after game.

Stefanie Loh @StefanieLoh · 57m
Chargers' Keenan @Keenan13Allen Allen on Richard Sherman: "He's just a normal guy. We're gonna go @ him. He's not really a shut down corner"

 

[amraeder]

To keep beating this horse. KC scores with 7:11 left in the fourth. Kick to make it a 21-17 game. GO FOR TWO!

Now there's a good debate, but that's way different from the Browns one you mentioned that happened in the third quarter.

But look how things worked out -- the Chiefs ended up down 24-17 and needing only a TD and PAT. What if it was 24-16 and they got the TD but missed the 2XP?

There's always risk that things turn out in a way where taking the 1 makes sense, unless you're down 2 with 0 seconds left in the game. But there's more times than that when going for 2 makes sense.
Up 5 in the second half (Browns) I think you should ALWAYS go for 2. It'll work out more often than it doesn't.
Same for the Chiefs situation, down 5 in the 4th quarter. Take the two, make it a 3-point game if you make it. If you miss, and you find yourself down 8, then it's still a one-score game (and really you're looking at, in that situation, what are the odds we can make at least one 2-point in two tries - either the first or second. And that's fairly high to get 1 conversions in 2 chances).

 

[LongTimeListener]

In the Browns question, I'm pretty sure the stat guys who have looked at the go-for-two question come down firmly on the "not too early" side. There's way more negative than positive associated with it. When you're talking about each team getting three more possessions, especially in today's NFL, you just can't calculate based on the score staying where it is.

 

[MileHigh]

To keep beating this horse. KC scores with 7:11 left in the fourth. Kick to make it a 21-17 game. GO FOR TWO!

Now there's a good debate, but that's way different from the Browns one you mentioned that happened in the third quarter.

But look how things worked out -- the Chiefs ended up down 24-17 and needing only a TD and PAT. What if it was 24-16 and they got the TD but missed the 2XP?

Ding, ding, ding. There were seven-plus minutes left. Go for two when you ABSOLUTELY have to.