NFL Draft: First Round QBs

[ttomea]

Which of the four quarterbacks taken in the first round of April's draft do you guys think will have the most successful career and why?

 

[BYH]

"Hi, hounds please."

 

[shockey]

i dunno how anyone could have enough confidence in ANY of these guys to state they'll have anything resembling what we'd consider 'success' at all. :o ??? ::)

 

[93Devil]

The one who throws the most touchdowns.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

The only prediction I'll make is that Newton will play the most in 2011, and therefore will be the one most often called a dismal failure on this message board.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Come back in 3-5 years...

 

[Mark2010]

Wild guess.... Christian Ponder, Minnesota. No way would I have picked Newton or Jake Locker that high.

Ryan Mallett has a chance, but will have to sit behind Tom Brady for a few years first.

 

[Johnny Dangerously]

The most round QB is what interests me more than who was the first.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

The best QB in this group will be one who doesn't have to do much as a rookie and has a good coach who will help him develop.

 

[qtlaw]

Newton with Rivera, a new D-first HC, is a worrisome match, oh yeah plus a 1-15 team.

Locker behind Hasselback is a good situation but watching Locker in the Pac-10 he was very scatter-armed.

Ponder I have my doubts.

Mallet (not a 1st rder right?) is in the best situation with Belicheck & Brady.

Kaepernick is in a good situation with Harbaugh as well.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Newton with Rivera, a new D-first HC, is a worrisome match, oh yeah plus a 1-15 team.

Locker behind Hasselback is a good situation but watching Locker in the Pac-10 he was very scatter-armed.

Ponder I have my doubts.

Mallet (not a 1st rder right?) is in the best situation with Belicheck & Brady.

Kaepernick is in a good situation with Harbaugh as well.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think the TCU kid might do well in Cincy.

 

[The Big Ragu]

Newton with Rivera, a new D-first HC, is a worrisome match, oh yeah plus a 1-15 team.

Locker behind Hasselback is a good situation but watching Locker in the Pac-10 he was very scatter-armed.

Ponder I have my doubts.

Mallet (not a 1st rder right?) is in the best situation with Belicheck & Brady.

Kaepernick is in a good situation with Harbaugh as well.

Mallett is a total lurch. Unless he has some ability to move within the pocket that he has never shown before, or he has a great offensive line that keeps him untouched, I think him being a good NFL QB is a longshot.

 

[qtlaw]

Newton with Rivera, a new D-first HC, is a worrisome match, oh yeah plus a 1-15 team.

Locker behind Hasselback is a good situation but watching Locker in the Pac-10 he was very scatter-armed.

Ponder I have my doubts.

Mallet (not a 1st rder right?) is in the best situation with Belicheck & Brady.

Kaepernick is in a good situation with Harbaugh as well.

Mallett is a total lurch. Unless he has some ability to move within the pocket that he has never shown before, or he has a great offensive line that keeps him untouched, I think him being a good NFL QB is a longshot.

I don't disagree. Whenever I saw Ark in a big game, there he was throwing the gut wrenching pick with no pressure (two I remember, Fla. in '09, OSU this year).

 

[Sam Mills 51]

The only prediction I'll make is that Newton will play the most in 2011, and therefore will be the one most often called a dismal failure on this message board.

There might be a reason, Michael.

Some seemed to be dying to make Newton critics eat it following the preseason opener against the Giants. Two preseason games, two preseason losses and two meh outings later ... jury's still out as to how much the learning curve is still being conquered and how much was the Giants' pass defense a complete mess.

To be fair, it's still early. The regular season is still to come. The dance has yet to start. We'll see.

 

[YGBFKM]

Newton can't complete passes outside the hashes. If that isn't fixed, teams will have a field day defending him. You can't cede the outer half of the field to an NFL defense and have even the slightest chance of succeeding.

 

[jr/shotglass]

The best QB in this group will be one who doesn't have to do much as a rookie and has a good coach who will help him develop.

Would have bought all of that 6-8 years ago.

The good coach -- of course, that's a no-brainer. But I don't think carrying a clipboard is the resume-builder it was a few years ago. Get in there and learn the game.

 

[Sam Mills 51]

Newton can't complete passes outside the hashes. If that isn't fixed, teams will have a field day defending him. You can't cede the outer half of the field to an NFL defense and have even the slightest chance of succeeding.

Lots of rollouts, some of them probably designed.

But those pass attempts off the back foot won't fly. Those tend to not end too well.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

Sam, I'm not trying to pick a fight with Newton's critics. He's an unproven commodity, as are all rookie QBs. I only meant that because he WILL get the most playing time, and because most rookie QBs struggle mightily as first-year starters (Marino's an exception, and Sammy Baugh, and that's about it), he will therefore get the most criticism, because his head will be sticking up more than his peer group holding the clipboards.
If Brady and Hoyer decide to go surfing at the Cape this weekend for some reason, and Mallett has to be the Pats' starter, HE'D get the most criticism.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

The best QB in this group will be one who doesn't have to do much as a rookie and has a good coach who will help him develop.

Would have bought all of that 6-8 years ago.

The good coach -- of course, that's a no-brainer. But I don't think carrying a clipboard is the resume-builder it was a few years ago. Get in there and learn the game.

Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady started zero games as rookies....

By the same token, Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford and Ben Roethlisberger were all regular starters as rookies. In the cases of Flacco and Roethlisberger, both players were plugged into pretty damn good teams.

Some of the great quarterbacks are ready to start. Some are not. Some are not given a choice and the result can be someone like David Carr, who probably would have been a lot more successful if he wasn't thrown right in there.

I think Cam Newton could be successful in the right situation, but playing for an awful team in Carolina, with a defensive-minded head coach and an offensive coordinator whose background is working with tight ends doesn't seem like that.

 

[cyclingwriter]

Wasn't there a study a few seasons ago predicted Qb success rates for first rounders? It was something like minimum 35 college starts and a 65 percent completion rate, and the qb prospered in the pros. If that wasn't there, ultimately the kid failed. And this was a study just on first rounders in the past decade so late round and free agents like Brady and Romo weren't considered.