Let's start with the AL race by listing the candidates:
Mike Trout
Miguel Cabrera
Derek Jeter
Adrian Beltre
Josh Hamilton
Adam Jones
Robinson Cano
Two of those players (Trout and Cabrera) are on teams that will probably not make the playoffs, which hurts their campaign. Cabrera might win the Triple Crown, so let's keep him in the discussion and set aside Trout.
The MVP voters like to award players that have a great all-around game, and the last player to win whose value was almost all in his bat was Howard in 2006. Cabrera is a poor defensive third baseman and doesn't add anything with baserunning, so it is unlikely they will award him.
That leaves Hamilton, Jones, Cano, Jeter, and Beltre.
Hamilton has already won and he has kind of coasted through the second half of the season after a great start. He won't win.
Jones - the last time a player won MVP with a batting average lower than his .286 was all the way back in 1982 (Dale Murphy). He may finish top 5 but he won't win.
Cano has had better years and the PED rumors will hurt him (unfairly).
Beltre has a case (great defense and good hitting) but he is helped quite a bit by his ballpark. He bats about 80 points higher at home vs the road. Basically he hits like Chipper at his peak when he's in Texas, and Casey Blake on the road.
That leaves Jeter. He is still very much in the running for batting title, and since he has been snubbed in the past the voters will extend him extra credit for their misteaks in 1999, '06, and '09.
Mike Trout
Miguel Cabrera
Derek Jeter
Adrian Beltre
Josh Hamilton
Adam Jones
Robinson Cano
Two of those players (Trout and Cabrera) are on teams that will probably not make the playoffs, which hurts their campaign. Cabrera might win the Triple Crown, so let's keep him in the discussion and set aside Trout.
The MVP voters like to award players that have a great all-around game, and the last player to win whose value was almost all in his bat was Howard in 2006. Cabrera is a poor defensive third baseman and doesn't add anything with baserunning, so it is unlikely they will award him.
That leaves Hamilton, Jones, Cano, Jeter, and Beltre.
Hamilton has already won and he has kind of coasted through the second half of the season after a great start. He won't win.
Jones - the last time a player won MVP with a batting average lower than his .286 was all the way back in 1982 (Dale Murphy). He may finish top 5 but he won't win.
Cano has had better years and the PED rumors will hurt him (unfairly).
Beltre has a case (great defense and good hitting) but he is helped quite a bit by his ballpark. He bats about 80 points higher at home vs the road. Basically he hits like Chipper at his peak when he's in Texas, and Casey Blake on the road.
That leaves Jeter. He is still very much in the running for batting title, and since he has been snubbed in the past the voters will extend him extra credit for their misteaks in 1999, '06, and '09.