Michigan/Nevada/SC Primaries Running Thread

[JackyJackBN]

Do we agree it's time for this new one? Let's go.

 

[Jones]

Well, I can tell you on the Republican side, Michigan is between McCain and Romney, and I think that McCain will win it. He won it in 2000 and recently got the endorsements of the two Detroit papers. More important, the economy is **** in Michigan -- it's one of only two states to lose population in the last year -- and I can't see a laid-off union guy taking to Romney.

South Carolina, though, is an open-ender. The state is split between the coast (pro-McCain, lots of military and vets) and the interior, which is Huckabee country, looking like. I think if McCain wins it, he sweeps to the nomination. I don't think he will win it, though. Just gut feeling there, nothing substantive.

 

[JackyJackBN]

The most interesting thing about Michigan, to me, is that the Dems are not running a full slate there; Hillary is on the ballot, and Obama is not. (I hope I'm not in DB mode here; things change so fast.) Will Obama get a healthy write-in vote?

My thoughts on SC are old hat.

 

[Beaker]

It will be interesting to see if McCain can indeed challenge Romney in Michigan. Romney's essentially thrown all his proverbial eggs in Michigan's basket.

 

[JackyJackBN]

As I mentioned on another thread, I was amazed to see that Romney pulled only 9% nationally--among Republicans!--on the most recent Gallup poll. That doesn't bode well. But, the Romney name is known better nowhere nationally than in Michigan; Mass. may be a draw these days.

Apropos of nothing, I give you this admonition from Bandwagon Boy: Newt Romney, Salute the Newt!

 

[Chi City 81]

The most interesting thing about Michigan, to me, is that the Dems are not running a full slate there; Hillary is on the ballot, and Obama is not. (I hope I'm not in DB mode here; things change so fast.) Will Obama get a healthy write in vote?

My thoughts on SC are old hat.

Obama and Edwards took their names off the ballot. And the vote there won't matter anyway since the DNC stripped that state of all its delegates. Michigan, in terms of the Democratic primary, is meaningless.

 

[zeke12]

The most interesting thing about Michigan, to me, is that the Dems are not running a full slate there; Hillary is on the ballot, and Obama is not. (I hope I'm not in DB mode here; things change so fast.) Will Obama get a healthy write-in vote?

My thoughts on SC are old hat.

Hillary is the only candidate besides Kucinich who didn't take her name off the ballot.

She's in a dogfight for 50 percent of the vote.

Obama and Edwards supporters are being encouraged to vote uncommitted.

 

[GB-Hack]

I thought Fred the Undead was looking good in S.C. for the Reps? I mean, it's his only hope.

 

[JackyJackBN]

I read that Kucinich is still stumping the state. Hard.

Doc, practically you're correct. But will Hillary's staying on the ballot have any impact, positive or negative, with the national party insiders? I don't have a clue.

 

[JackyJackBN]

I thought Fred the Undead was looking good in S.C. for the Reps? I mean, it's his only hope.

Fred's tied for third in the polls, somewhere around 12%, with Romney, I believe. And it's a big gap.

I claim he'll finish first or second. But I'm starting to get a little squeamish.

To hear Old Fred talk, he's in for the long haul. But economic reality is breathing down his neck. He needs a serious boost or he's a goner.

 

[zeke12]

I read that Kucinich is still stumping the state. Hard.

Doc, practically you're correct. But will Hillary's staying on the ballot have any impact, positive or negative, with the national party insiders? I don't have a clue.

It will give her some pretty negative press if she can't get 50 percent of the vote, I would think.

But I'm channeling John Fund, so don't take my word for it.

 

[GB-Hack]

I thought Fred the Undead was looking good in S.C. for the Reps? I mean, it's his only hope.

Fred's tied for third in the polls, somewhere around 12%, with Romney, I believe. And it's a big gap.

I claim he'll finish first or second. But I'm starting to get a little squeamish.

To hear Old Fred talk, he's in for the long haul. But economic reality is breathing down his neck. He needs a serious boost or he's a goner.

His campaign has been literally a day late and a dollar short. Just a waste of everyone's time.

 

[JackyJackBN]

I read that Kucinich is still stumping the state. Hard.

Doc, practically you're correct. But will Hillary's staying on the ballot have any impact, positive or negative, with the national party insiders? I don't have a clue.

It will give her some pretty negative press if she can't get 50 percent of the vote, I would think.

But I'm channeling John Fund, so don't take my word for it.

John Fund had a televised focus group following the Hillary crying incident in which a large percentage of NH voters (within this small group) who had been against her or neutral before had switched to favor her. I pooh-poohed it at the time, but then came the election results...

 

[HejiraHenry]

Well, she could play that card once.

Once.

Now, it's on to something else.

 

[JackyJackBN]

Well, she could play that card once.

Once.

Now, it's on to something else.

I gotta say, HH, it looked pretty genuine to me. It's a grueling process, people get tired.

That little sweety Camille Paglia agrees with you.

I agree that Hillary will be better off avoiding tearful moments in the future if she can.

 

[zeke12]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/2713/87225/55/434206

Presented without comment.

In essence, Kos is urging Democratic voters to cross over to vote Mitt in Michigan, since their vote doesn't really count, anyway.

 

[Ben_Hecht]

God, let him go down for the third time.

Kos . . . wrong, again.

 

[zeke12]

God, let him go down for the third time.

Kos . . . wrong, again.

I tend to agree with you, but there is a sort of Merry Prankster glee in keeping Romney alive, only to be crushed in South Carolina, leading to Rudy's Only Stand in Florida.

What chaos.

 

[Fenian_Bastard]

Thanks for stating this one, JJ.
There are a lot of evangelical voters in Michigan, so the Huck's got a better shot than you might think. Michigan's been underrated for its history of Kwazeee Konservative religion. Father Coughlin's church still stands in Royal Oak).
However, and it's a big however, this has now risen up to bite him.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/01/huckabee_opponents_criticize_p.php

That parole, of course, was the direct response to a campaigh by well-paid anti-Clinton zombies who thought that Bill 'n Hill would "do anything to win."

 

[JackyJackBN]

Thanks for stating this one, JJ.
There are a lot of evangelical voters in Michigan, so the Huck's got a better shot than you might think. Michigan's been underrated for its history of Kwazeee Konservative religion. Father Coughlin's church still stands in Royal Oak).
However, and it's a big however, this has now risen up to bite him.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/01/huckabee_opponents_criticize_p.php

That parole, of course, was the direct response to a campaigh by well-paid anti-Clinton zombies who thought that Bill 'n Hill would "do anything to win."

A bow in your direction, sir; just wanted to get off the schneid.

I mentioned elsewhere that it's interesting that the source of the "analysis" isn't usefully identified by tpm.

That parole will play better, if that's the word, in Michigan than S.C.

I don't think Huckabee has a chance at the GOP nomination, barring some sea change. I smell McCain.