Is Mike Trout headed for a huge fall?

[Dick Whitman]

I think that Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and has been for the last three seasons, since he was called up for good.

Because of that, I keep pretty close track of how he's doing - he's one of that handful of guys I look for in the box score pretty much every morning.

Anyway, I am beginning to be concerned about whether his performance is sustainable, due to his strikeout rate. After striking out in about 20 percent of his plate appearances his first two seasons, he has 119 strikeouts already this year - about 24 percent of the time he comes up to bat. In July, when he batted just .265, he struck out at a rate of 27 percent.

It looks like some writers addressed this early in the season, but not too much since, from a quick Google search. Here's an example:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/forcing-a-reason-to-worry-about-mike-trout/

It's amazing to me that he's still over .300 for the season. Very few players hit .300 and strike out that much. (Sammy Sosa, maybe?) Very few players hit .280 and strike out that much, I don't think.

 

[RecoveringJournalist]

Nowhere to go but down.

 

[JackReacher]

Very concerning.

 

[Dick Whitman]

Very concerning.

I'm interested in what kind of player he turns out to be, aren't you?

I'd love to see him be a 30-30 guy who hits .320 every year and competes for Gold Gloves. Basically, I'd like to see early-period Barry Bonds for a few years, as compared to a Sammy Sosa or Reggie Jackson slugger.

 

[Rainman]

Ruth in 1920, arguably his best season, had a 17 game stretch of .190/.277/.362. It's normal to have slumps and it's normal to have luck go both good and bad. Sometimes you get a slump and bad luck at the same time.

 

[Steak Snabler]

People said his 2012 performance was unsustainable, then he had a better year (at least offensively) in 2013. He's slightly off this year, but still the best player in baseball by a healthy margin.

I do think he'll stop running as he ages, just as everyone else did. That might cut into his value somewhat, but he's such a great hitter I don't think it really matters.

And he turns 23 on Thursday.

 

[Songbird]

If he doesn't burn out and plays for 15-18 years, he'll be top 10.

 

[Huggy]

Huge enough fall that the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers will hand him a blank check the minute his contract is up with the Angels.

 

[Boom_70]

I won't get alarmed until Starman becomes concerned

 

[RickStain]

His K rate is up, but his contact rate (literally the percentage of his swings where he makes contact) is only down a tiny bit. He's hitting more fly balls and fewer ground balls, which is why he's hitting for a lot more power than he has in the past. That should more than make up for the slight uptick in K-rate.

 

[Huggy]

I won't get alarmed until Starman becomes concerned

The Mike Trout situation remains fluid, Boom.

 

[Dick Whitman]

His K rate is up, but his contact rate (literally the percentage of his swings where he makes contact) is only down a tiny bit.

Does that include foul balls?

Rick, back-of-the-napkin, what kind of a hitter (for average) does he settle into being? I just have a hard time conceptualizing a 20 percent K guy who bats .300 season after season.

 

[Boom_70]

I won't get alarmed until Starman becomes concerned

The Mike Trout situation remains fluid, Boom.

And before heading out to the ballpark be sure to phone ahead to
confirm start time.

 

[RecoveringJournalist]

His K rate is up, but his contact rate (literally the percentage of his swings where he makes contact) is only down a tiny bit.

Does that include foul balls?

Rick, back-of-the-napkin, what kind of a hitter (for average) does he settle into being? I just have a hard time conceptualizing a 20 percent K guy who bats .300 season after season.

A lot of guys, even as they age and their reflexes aren't as sharp as they were at the beginning of their careers, reduce strikeouts considerably as they get older and smarter and stop swinging at everything. That's not to say he's going to become Wade Boggs, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if his strikeouts go down considerably in a few years.

 

[heyabbott]

Makes you even more impressed with Joe DiMaggio, 361 HRs. 369 Ks. 7600+ plate appearances.

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

If by huge fall you mean huge autumn, yes.

 

[sgreenwell]

I think he's an extreme outlier for a variety of reasons, so while the K-rate is high, to me it's not a huge concern until the speed starts to slip. And even then, I believe it was either Bill James or Baseball Prospectus way back when that implied that speed and power guys tend to age the best, since they'll lose speed as they age but instead gain a bit more power. Also, I think RecoveringJournalist is correct - Trout is probably swinging at more pitches now than he will at Age X, because even though there is a higher chance he'll miss them and strikeout, if he does make contact there is a higher chance he'll get a hit.

 

[poindexter]

Huge enough fall that the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers will hand him a blank check the minute his contract is up with the Angels.

He's signed through 2020. Perfect, let someone else pay for his downside years, something the Angels usually do.

People said his 2012 performance was unsustainable, then he had a better year (at least offensively) in 2013. He's slightly off this year, but still the best player in baseball by a healthy margin.

I do think he'll stop running as he ages, just as everyone else did. That might cut into his value somewhat, but he's such a great hitter I don't think it really matters.

And he turns 23 on Thursday.

He's already stopped running, he has only 12 sb attempts this year.

 

[Boom_70]

I'm more concerned about Justin Verlander. The guy has not
been the same pitcher since he hooked up with Kate Upton.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/justin-verlander-tosses-kate-upton-baseball-stands-game-article-1.1891934

 

[Songbird]

He allowed 2 runs last night though that catch by Carrera saved a 3-run triple.

Instead of 4-0 early it was 2-0. Yanks won 2-1.

On the flip side, he goes home to Kate Upton.