GOP 2012 primaries thread

[suburbia]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Christine O'Donnell could run against Obama and wear a witch hat at the debate and she'd do better than Mondale did in 1984.

Huck isn't waiting until 2016. He knows he's done. The only way any of the current crop of republican candidates runs in 2016 is if they win next year. Hard to see that happening unless one of the guys who everyone presumes is waiting for 2016 jumps in the race.

Rubio and Jindal immediately come to mind for 2016. Will voters have forgotten about Jindal's Kenneth the Page impersonation by then?

I suppose Chris Christie could run then too. He'd only be 54 - a baby by Republican standards.

 

[exmediahack]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Huckabee is at an odd place, IMHO.

I think he enjoys feeling like a political player but he also knows he will never win a general election. Too far right on social issues.

What I could see... a VP slot.

Let's say Pawlenty is the nominee. I would put him as my favorite right now for next year. Former governor of a lefty state, he can grab the middle vs. Obama. Yet will Pawlenty need a bad cop who can run down Obama on the campaign trail while Pawlenty stays above it? If so, I could see Huck taking a call to be VP.

Think about it. Huckabee would be a player, wouldn't have to raise money, wouldn't get beat up in primaries. If Pawlenty/Huckabee loses, Huck goes back to TV somewhere.

Name drop: I interviewed Pawlenty, at length, this month. I really see this as a year where a bland but efficient candidate helps Repubicans. They will run against a celebrity president playing class warfare at every stop. They don't need flash. They need someone with a solution.

The real question comes down to unemployment. If it is still at 16% for twentysomethings, are they going to show up for Obama again? If African American unemployment is at 14% again, will they show up?

Also, the Soccer Mom factor. Oprah won't be on TV next year. That will keep Obama from free endorsements from Oprahh, with her telling that bloc to vote for hope and change. This time, Obama has a record to run on and will have to earn re-election... unless, the Republicans, as they often do, nominate an uninspiring corpse.

I don't expect young people or African Americans to vote Republican. But if they aren't motivated, the Republican wins. Obama has a very shaky coalition and if any of them don't show up (such as soccer moms), he may very well lose.

Whomever the Republican nominee is, if they get across the message that an unchecked Obama could do whatever he wants in the second term, that side will be motivated to vote.

The shame of it is that from 2006 to 2008, Democrats had to quietly root for military and economic defeats...for political gain. Now Republicans have to do the same thing...to win the next election. Ugh.

 

[NightHawk112005]

Re: Huckabee won't run

This young person is definitely voting Republican. Losing Huckabee is a blow, but Daniels and Pawlenty are far better options. I'm certainly not conceding this thing. Four more years of Obama? America can't be that foolish to make that mistake a second time.

 

[Mark McGwire]

Re: Huckabee won't run

This young person is definitely voting Republican. Losing Huckabee is a blow, but Daniels and Pawlenty are far better options. I'm certainly not conceding this thing. Four more years of Obama? America can't be that foolish to make that mistake a second time.

I don't know how old you are, but America can be plenty ****ing foolish.

 

[Machine Head]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Jim Lindsey has to be in the mix somewhere. He's number 21.

(Bonus points if you find someone else from this thread in the pic)

Gerry Jones is 61 , Jimmy Johnson is # 60 , Charlie Daniels # 30 behind Johnson

Too bad about what happened to Charlie's football career. People said he was no good, and crazy as a loon. Cause he got stoned in the morning, he got drunk in the afternoon.

North Dallas Forty material, he was.

 

[NightHawk112005]

Re: Huckabee won't run

This young person is definitely voting Republican. Losing Huckabee is a blow, but Daniels and Pawlenty are far better options. I'm certainly not conceding this thing. Four more years of Obama? America can't be that foolish to make that mistake a second time.

I don't know how old you are, but America can be plenty ****ing foolish.

That was more of a hopeful thing. I already saw how foolish America was in 2008 when they elected Obama the first time.

 

[YankeeFan]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Let's say Pawlenty is the nominee. I would put him as my favorite right now for next year. Former governor of a lefty state, he can grab the middle vs. Obama. Yet will Pawlenty need a bad cop who can run down Obama on the campaign trail while Pawlenty stays above it? If so, I could see Huck taking a call to be VP.

Think about it. Huckabee would be a player, wouldn't have to raise money, wouldn't get beat up in primaries. If Pawlenty/Huckabee loses, Huck goes back to TV somewhere.

I don't think you'd see two Governors on the ticket.

If a Governor gets the nomination, they'll want someone with foreign policy/defense credentials -- a Senator that's been on the Foreign Relations Committee, something like that.

 

[sportsguydave]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Huckabee is at an odd place, IMHO.

I think he enjoys feeling like a political player but he also knows he will never win a general election. Too far right on social issues.

What I could see... a VP slot.

Let's say Pawlenty is the nominee. I would put him as my favorite right now for next year. Former governor of a lefty state, he can grab the middle vs. Obama. Yet will Pawlenty need a bad cop who can run down Obama on the campaign trail while Pawlenty stays above it? If so, I could see Huck taking a call to be VP.

Think about it. Huckabee would be a player, wouldn't have to raise money, wouldn't get beat up in primaries. If Pawlenty/Huckabee loses, Huck goes back to TV somewhere.

Name drop: I interviewed Pawlenty, at length, this month. I really see this as a year where a bland but efficient candidate helps Repubicans. They will run against a celebrity president playing class warfare at every stop. They don't need flash. They need someone with a solution.

The real question comes down to unemployment. If it is still at 16% for twentysomethings, are they going to show up for Obama again? If African American unemployment is at 14% again, will they show up?

Also, the Soccer Mom factor. Oprah won't be on TV next year. That will keep Obama from free endorsements from Oprahh, with her telling that bloc to vote for hope and change. This time, Obama has a record to run on and will have to earn re-election... unless, the Republicans, as they often do, nominate an uninspiring corpse.

I don't expect young people or African Americans to vote Republican. But if they aren't motivated, the Republican wins. Obama has a very shaky coalition and if any of them don't show up (such as soccer moms), he may very well lose.

Whomever the Republican nominee is, if they get across the message that an unchecked Obama could do whatever he wants in the second term, that side will be motivated to vote.

The shame of it is that from 2006 to 2008, Democrats had to quietly root for military and economic defeats...for political gain. Now Republicans have to do the same thing...to win the next election. Ugh.

After 2010, there's no way the Obama base doesn't turn out in 2012. Folks remember what a disaster it was when Republicans controlled the entire government. Obama's organizers are already getting that message out.

And the Republicans are going to have their own issues. The Tea Party is going to drag the party to the right...possibly so far to the right that the middle is turned off. That's got to be a concern. It's already happening in Congress. Look at what Boehner is having to deal with.

The Oprah factor has always been overblown. She didn't win Obama the election, no matter how much righty radio pushed that meme.

And by the way .... nobody I know rooted for defeat on any level. Another bogus talking point.

 

[Ben_Hecht]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Huckabee is at an odd place, IMHO.

I think he enjoys feeling like a political player but he also knows he will never win a general election. Too far right on social issues.

What I could see... a VP slot.

Let's say Pawlenty is the nominee. I would put him as my favorite right now for next year. Former governor of a lefty state, he can grab the middle vs. Obama. Yet will Pawlenty need a bad cop who can run down Obama on the campaign trail while Pawlenty stays above it? If so, I could see Huck taking a call to be VP.

Think about it. Huckabee would be a player, wouldn't have to raise money, wouldn't get beat up in primaries. If Pawlenty/Huckabee loses, Huck goes back to TV somewhere.

Name drop: I interviewed Pawlenty, at length, this month. I really see this as a year where a bland but efficient candidate helps Repubicans. They will run against a celebrity president playing class warfare at every stop. They don't need flash. They need someone with a solution.

The real question comes down to unemployment. If it is still at 16% for twentysomethings, are they going to show up for Obama again? If African American unemployment is at 14% again, will they show up?

Also, the Soccer Mom factor. Oprah won't be on TV next year. That will keep Obama from free endorsements from Oprahh, with her telling that bloc to vote for hope and change. This time, Obama has a record to run on and will have to earn re-election... unless, the Republicans, as they often do, nominate an uninspiring corpse.

I don't expect young people or African Americans to vote Republican. But if they aren't motivated, the Republican wins. Obama has a very shaky coalition and if any of them don't show up (such as soccer moms), he may very well lose.

Whomever the Republican nominee is, if they get across the message that an unchecked Obama could do whatever he wants in the second term, that side will be motivated to vote.

The shame of it is that from 2006 to 2008, Democrats had to quietly root for military and economic defeats...for political gain. Now Republicans have to do the same thing...to win the next election. Ugh.

Pawlenty/Huck would be two evangelicals, and the GOP ain't doing that.

 

[cortez]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Obama split Nebraska last time, and against Palin or Bachmann or, hell, even Santorum, half of those are easily in play. West Virginia? Arkansas? Louisiana? Against Palin? Really?

Otherwise, great analysis.

There's only one "n" in Bachman.

You're welcome.

I'm pretty sure there are two.

I think you're right. I was thinking of Randy Bachman of the '70s rock 'n' roll band Bachman Turner Overdrive, as well as The Who. That always throws me because I knew of Randy first, so Michelle's name always looks wrong to me.
[/quo

Pete Townshend doesn't think so

 

[exmediahack]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Huckabee is at an odd place, IMHO.

I think he enjoys feeling like a political player but he also knows he will never win a general election. Too far right on social issues.

What I could see... a VP slot.

Let's say Pawlenty is the nominee. I would put him as my favorite right now for next year. Former governor of a lefty state, he can grab the middle vs. Obama. Yet will Pawlenty need a bad cop who can run down Obama on the campaign trail while Pawlenty stays above it? If so, I could see Huck taking a call to be VP.

Think about it. Huckabee would be a player, wouldn't have to raise money, wouldn't get beat up in primaries. If Pawlenty/Huckabee loses, Huck goes back to TV somewhere.

Name drop: I interviewed Pawlenty, at length, this month. I really see this as a year where a bland but efficient candidate helps Repubicans. They will run against a celebrity president playing class warfare at every stop. They don't need flash. They need someone with a solution.

The real question comes down to unemployment. If it is still at 16% for twentysomethings, are they going to show up for Obama again? If African American unemployment is at 14% again, will they show up?

Also, the Soccer Mom factor. Oprah won't be on TV next year. That will keep Obama from free endorsements from Oprahh, with her telling that bloc to vote for hope and change. This time, Obama has a record to run on and will have to earn re-election... unless, the Republicans, as they often do, nominate an uninspiring corpse.

I don't expect young people or African Americans to vote Republican. But if they aren't motivated, the Republican wins. Obama has a very shaky coalition and if any of them don't show up (such as soccer moms), he may very well lose.

Whomever the Republican nominee is, if they get across the message that an unchecked Obama could do whatever he wants in the second term, that side will be motivated to vote.

The shame of it is that from 2006 to 2008, Democrats had to quietly root for military and economic defeats...for political gain. Now Republicans have to do the same thing...to win the next election. Ugh.

Pawlenty/Huck would be two evangelicals, and the GOP ain't doing that.

But Republicans need to have a 'left state/right state' ticket. I think Pawlenty will mask any evangelical posturing once he gets a commanding delegate lead. He needs to outflank on the right early before bending back to the center.

As for "rooting against" America. It happens, sadly -- goes all the way back to Mario Cuomo in 84 in SF. Just think of the politicos running down the Iraq mission from 2005 to 2007. Same thing now as some Republicans quietly hope unemployment doesn't fall to 6% before November 2012. It's a shame...but it is political reality.

 

[Crash]

Re: Huckabee won't run

This young person is definitely voting Republican. Losing Huckabee is a blow, but Daniels and Pawlenty are far better options. I'm certainly not conceding this thing. Four more years of Obama? America can't be that foolish to make that mistake a second time.

I don't know how old you are, but America can be plenty ****ing foolish.

That was more of a hopeful thing. I already saw how foolish America was in 2008 when they elected Obama the first time.

If Obama wins re-election, the GOP will have nothing to blame but itself. Look at the candidates running for its nomination. None who can win could appeal to independents. The one who could appeal to independents can't win because of the party's end run to the right.

And it's not like voters are really that impressed with the GOP agenda. In the four swing states where Republicans won governorships in 2010 -- Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Florida -- voters are begging for a do-over. Despite the fact that the national media loves him, the most high-profile Republican governor, Chris Christie, is loathed by home state voters. And the GOP Congress, which has done nothing substantive to this point, is so unpopular that Democrats are already back ahead on a generic ballot.

It's easy to point to the president's approval ratings and wonder how he could possibly win re-election. But doing so ignores the fact that the GOP is even less popular.

 

[Boom_70]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Wrong, but interesting summary NTL.

 

[Machine Head]

Re: Huckabee won't run

In the back of his mind, T Paw wonders if **** Cheney will call again, just like in 2002.

 

[Mark McGwire]

Re: Huckabee won't run

JV material, MH.

 

[Machine Head]

Re: Huckabee won't run

 

[Mark McGwire]

Re: Huckabee won't run

Somebody slew-foot the candy ass.

 

[suburbia]

Re: Huckabee won't run

This young person is definitely voting Republican. Losing Huckabee is a blow, but Daniels and Pawlenty are far better options. I'm certainly not conceding this thing. Four more years of Obama? America can't be that foolish to make that mistake a second time.

I don't know how old you are, but America can be plenty ****ing foolish.

That was more of a hopeful thing. I already saw how foolish America was in 2008 when they elected Obama the first time.

If Obama wins re-election, the GOP will have nothing to blame but itself. Look at the candidates running for its nomination. None who can win could appeal to independents. The one who could appeal to independents can't win because of the party's end run to the right.

And it's not like voters are really that impressed with the GOP agenda. In the four swing states where Republicans won governorships in 2010 -- Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Florida -- voters are begging for a do-over. Despite the fact that the national media loves him, the most high-profile Republican governor, Chris Christie, is loathed by home state voters. And the GOP Congress, which has done nothing substantive to this point, is so unpopular that Democrats are already back ahead on a generic ballot.

It's easy to point to the president's approval ratings and wonder how he could possibly win re-election. But doing so ignores the fact that the GOP is even less popular.

It's 2004 in reverse, in other words.

 

[Starman]

Re: Huckabee won't run

This young person is definitely voting Republican. Losing Huckabee is a blow, but Daniels and Pawlenty are far better options. I'm certainly not conceding this thing. Four more years of Obama? America can't be that foolish to make that mistake a second time.

I don't know how old you are, but America can be plenty ****ing foolish.

That was more of a hopeful thing. I already saw how foolish America was in 2008 when they elected Obama the first time.

Consider the alternative

 

[Boom_70]

Re: Huckabee won't run

This young person is definitely voting Republican. Losing Huckabee is a blow, but Daniels and Pawlenty are far better options. I'm certainly not conceding this thing. Four more years of Obama? America can't be that foolish to make that mistake a second time.

I don't know how old you are, but America can be plenty ****ing foolish.

That was more of a hopeful thing. I already saw how foolish America was in 2008 when they elected Obama the first time.

If Obama wins re-election, the GOP will have nothing to blame but itself. Look at the candidates running for its nomination. None who can win could appeal to independents. The one who could appeal to independents can't win because of the party's end run to the right.

And it's not like voters are really that impressed with the GOP agenda. In the four swing states where Republicans won governorships in 2010 -- Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Florida -- voters are begging for a do-over. Despite the fact that the national media loves him, the most high-profile Republican governor, Chris Christie, is loathed by home state voters. And the GOP Congress, which has done nothing substantive to this point, is so unpopular that Democrats are already back ahead on a generic ballot.

It's easy to point to the president's approval ratings and wonder how he could possibly win re-election. But doing so ignores the fact that the GOP is even less popular.

It's 2004 in reverse, in other words.

I would view it that way. This time the buffoons are on GOP side.