Election 2006. You Make The Call

[Lyman_Bostock]

It's close . . . but Webb is now the favorite at www.tradesports.com.

Who'da thunk it?

Tradesports also had Kerry winning big over Bush in 2004. I'm not sure they're a better indicator than anything else (which for the most part also aren't good indicators).

 

[Ben_Hecht]

An interactive day-trading site I'm familiar with had Kerry a 3-1 favorite over Bush,
midafternoon, in '04 . . . action largely based on leaked exit polls which clearly
weren't derived from balanced samples. But W was a solid favorite in that
market, prior to that midday wobble. Betting on politics is a favorite-lover's
delight. The money tends to be right, at high frequency, the night before
Election Day.

 

[Freelance Hack]

. . . latest polls are not pretty, for Ford.

The small CNN poll is way off, I bet.

Not saying Ford will win, but there's no way Corker has an eight-point lead right now.

My guess is that it's 47-45 or something like that.

 

[Ben_Hecht]

Modern polling's a pretty sharp science. Seldom do we see such nonsense as the 1936 Literary
Digest effort, which called for Alf Landon to beat FDR. Absurd, on its face -- until it
emerged that the LD was using telephone records and auto registration lists in its
mining for prospects. You needed to be in the chips (relatively) to afford a phone and/or a car
in Depression-racked 1936.

 

[Flying Headbutt]

Baltimore Sun has Erhlich closing in hard on O'Malley, down now 47-46.

 

[zeke12]

The DCCC's closing ad (via TPM)

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/010723.php

 

[Fenian_Bastard]

The DCCC's closing ad (via TPM)

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/010723.php

Abso-****ing-lutely.
The last week is about Iraq.

 

[Yawn]

I still have faith in the Kerrys of the world to screw this up for the Dumocrats.....and his campaigning - and his mouth - is so much like the far left of this room.....

 

[Ben_Hecht]

In your dreams.

 

[Fenian_Bastard]

I still have faith in the Kerrys of the world to screw this up for the Dumocrats.....and his campaigning - and his mouth - is so much like the far left of this room.....

And his gift for syntax is very much the same as yours.

 

[Point of Order]

I'm on record elsewhere, but I'll repeat: I think the Dems win the house (I'll guess a 25-seat pick-up) and the Senate will be a 50-50 split [or if you want to get technical, a 49-49-1 (Jeffords)-1 (Lieberman)]

The closest races to watch (in order of closeness) are:
- McCaskill (D) def. Talent (R) in Missourri
- Menendez (D) over Kean Jr. (R) in New Jersey
- Corker (R) def. Ford (D) in Tenn.
- Allen (R) over Webb (D) in Va.

I'm not well enough schooled to analyze the House race-by-race, but I look for big Dem. pickups in Ohio and New York along with moderate gains and very competitive races in Pennsylvania.

Pat myself on the back? Don't mind if I do. Looks like I nailed 3 of the 4 tightest senate races, and Webb-Allen is still under contention (though Webb currently stands as the victor.) I under estimated the House wave by a few, but still not bad, eh?

 

[Columbo]

Without Michael J. Fox and John Kerry, the sweep doesn't happen (and AWFUL GOP candidates in Montana and Virginia).

 

[Double Down]

How exactly did John Kerry work in favor of the Dems, Pube?

 

[Columbo]

How exactly did John Kerry work in favor of the Dems, Pube?

Exactly how I said it when he made his misconstrued Bush-is-as-dumb-as-a-rock comment last week.

Iraq being front and center the final seven days would be the best thing that could happen for the Dems.

 

[Double Down]

John Kerry, the ultimate hustler. [/chappelle]