2022 galloping Triple Crown thread

[UPChip]

This might be my ignorance here, but is that kind of a finish the result of a mistake by the jockeys on Zandon and Epicenter in particular to not cover that in some way or is just a case of the long shot just having more in the tank at the end?

 

[Regan MacNeil]

That horse wasn't even in the field until a scratch. That's like the first alternate winning the Indy 500.

In an underpowered backup car.

Didn't the commentators say something about this horse having zero stamina?

If I'm remembering correctly, I await the results of the postrace drug test.

 

[cjericho]

He kind of looked like a little roid rage when he tried to bite the other horse.

 

[dixiehack]

Very fast fractions early. Been a while since a closer had that kind of opportunity.

 

[Driftwood]

I cannot not think that horse was hopped up beyond belief.

Hold all tickets.

 

[Typist Clerk]

I need to see another replay to count how many lengths that horse made up in the stretch. Amazing closing speed.

Looked like he was 10th at the head of the stretch. That's a lot of horses to weave through. But he had something left while the leaders were gassed from the frantic early pace. Still, 10th? Doesn't happen.

 

[da man]

This might be my ignorance here, but is that kind of a finish the result of a mistake by the jockeys on Zandon and Epicenter in particular to not cover that in some way or is just a case of the long shot just having more in the tank at the end?

They ran a suicidal pace at the front of the pack. The early leaders finished in the teens.

 

[playthrough]

I wonder if anyone anywhere hit that Super.

Yep, though you may be able to count the number of winning tickets in existence on two hands.

 

[I Should Coco]

This might be my ignorance here, but is that kind of a finish the result of a mistake by the jockeys on Zandon and Epicenter in particular to not cover that in some way or is just a case of the long shot just having more in the tank at the end?

Also not a horse person, but to this layman’s eyes, the other horses flew out of the gate at too fast a pace, and Rich Strike kept reeling them in down the stretch.

 

[Regan MacNeil]

Yep, though you may be able to count the number of winning tickets in existence on two hands.

Are those bettors extremely lucky or in the volume business?

 

[playthrough]

Hold all tickets.

That would be the most horse racing thing ever.

 

[playthrough]

Are those bettors extremely lucky or in the volume business?

Both. Bettors who make huge super boxes with a bunch of favorites and a longshot or two thrown in. You just figure the longshot will get up to fourth, not win the whole damn thing.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Both. Bettors who make huge super boxes with a bunch of favorites and a longshot or two thrown in. You just figure the longshot will get up to fourth, not win the whole damn thing.

I feel seen.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

As my horse racing mentor loved to say “Well, that result wasn’t in my Daily Racing Form.”

 

[HanSenSE]

Was watching the ceremonies in San Francisco for Buster Posey, but looking at this clip and ... wow! About half the receivers in the NFL should have moves like this.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

This feels like a longshot winner year.

I told y’all!

(OK, I didn’t think it would be THAT big of a longshot.)

 

[playthrough]

I thought of a piece Pat Forde wrote early in the week for SI about how to bet the Derby, which included "throw $2 on the longest shot, just because" but I wonder how many people did that early in the week but then didn't bother to come back and bet the horse that was added a day before the race.

 

[maumann]

Both. Bettors who make huge super boxes with a bunch of favorites and a longshot or two thrown in. You just figure the longshot will get up to fourth, not win the whole damn thing.

THEY SAID THERE WOULD BE NO MATH INVOLVED.

Sorry.

OK, let's reverse engineer the Superfecta payout, based on the information I can glean from how the pari-mutuel system functions in Kentucky.

1. Churchill Downs has a 22 percent takeout on Superfectas (meaning it only pays off 78 percent of total pari-mutuel wagering, with the other 22 percent going to purses, overhead and taxes).

2. If each winning ticket was worth $321,500.10, the odds of having a winning ticket would be 1 in 412,179.615. (Payout plus the takeout.) So there would be 10 winning tickets for every 4,121,796 Superfecta tickets sold. Or 100 for each 41,217,961.5.

3. There's no specific breakdown on the Internet, but the 2021 Kentucky Derby race had a total handle of $155 million, so I can only assume exotic bets are a significant percentage of the total handle, but the Superfecta is probably less than $50 million.

My guess is there were more than 10 and less than 100 winning tickets.

FOOTNOTE: The 2005 Derby Superfecta payout was $864,253.50. That very well could have had fewer than 10 winners.

 

[Noholesin1]

When I see a jockey I've never heard of riding in a Triple Crown race or the Breeders' Cup, I immediately put that horse on my "do not bet" list. But that was one hell of a ride over the last half-mile. The winning connections deserve all the accolades. Nicely done.

 

[Noholesin1]

There was roughly $11,586,000 paid out in winning superfecta wagers. At roughly $321,500 each, that's approximately 36 people who had it for $1. Some could have had it for $2. Not sure if they offer 10-cent supers.