2013-2014 NCAA Football Bowl-A-Rama: The End of the BCS

[DanOregon]

Barring upsets next week, there will be three at-large BCS bids. Figure the SEC (Bama) is assured of one. Then it comes down to Michigan State (figure Ohio State gets one even if they lose), Clemson, Baylor, and Oregon (Stanford or ASU will knock themselves out with a loss). Big 12 should be interesting with Texas-Baylor and Bedlam.

Wouldn't mind seeing an SEC-Pac12 match-up somewhere. Stanford-Bama, Arizona State - Auburn

 

[Steak Snabler]

Unlikely to happen assuming Ohio State and Florida State are in the title game and Northern Illinois wins next week. The only place it could happen is the Orange Bowl.

Orange gets the No. 1 pick to replace FSU, so they take Alabama.

Rose gets the No. 2 pick to replace Ohio State, so they take Michigan State I assume for the treasured Big Ten/Pac-12 matchup against Stanford/Arizona State winner.

Orange gets its regular pick and could choose Oregon here to face Alabama, but probably goes the safe (ticket sales) route and chooses Clemson.

The last two picks are automatic qualifiers and thus couldn't take Oregon ...

The Sugar takes AAC champion Central Florida to face the Auburn-Missouri winner.

Fiesta goes last and gets stuck with Northern Illinois against Oklahoma State.

 

[DanOregon]

I'd go with UCF over Clemson if I were the Orange. And considering they'll already have one Big 10 team on the way, I could see the Rose going with Baylor, depending on how Michigan State looks.

 

[Armchair_QB]

No way Oregon gets picked to play in Miami. Ticket sales would be hideous even with Alabama.

 

[Armchair_QB]

I'd go with UCF over Clemson if I were the Orange. And considering they'll already have one Big 10 team on the way, I could see the Rose going with Baylor, depending on how Michigan State looks.

If the Orange takes UCF, the Sugar would probably take Baylor over Clemson or Oregon.

 

[Mark2010]

No way Oregon gets picked to play in Miami. Ticket sales would be hideous even with Alabama.

True. If Oregon goes, it would figure to be the Fiesta (where they went last year) or the Sugar.

I think the Pac-12 winner is committed to the Rose Bowl, but the Rose Bowl might take Alabama (long shot).

If Northern Illinois blows the MAC championship to Bowling Green, or if either Baylor or Okie State get a second loss, that would open up another spot for Oregon, or maybe even two spots.

 

[Steak Snabler]

You THINK the Pac-12 winner is committed to the Rose Bowl? It's only been the case for about 50 years, even before it was the Pac-8.

As for the rest of what you posted, I explained it all above ...

The only way Oregon gets to the Fiesta is if Northern Illinois loses. Fiesta gets last pick among the at-large teams, and would have to take NIU (if the Huskies qualify automatically by finishing in the Top 16) to face the Big 12 winner, which is locked in unless it's in the championship game (which it won't be).

There are not many things I'm sure of, but one thing I would bet my entire savings on is Northern Illinois will be the last at-large selection if the Huskies are 12-0 and automatically qualify for a BCS bowl.

And lastly, the Rose Bowl doesn't have the option to take Alabama if Florida State is in the title game. The Orange Bowl gets first pick this year for losing FSU (its automatic tie-in as ACC champion) and would ALMOST CERTAINLY take Alabama.

Either way, it's not the Rose Bowl's option. They get 2nd pick after the Orange in the rotation this year and would presumably have to replace Big Ten champion Ohio State.

Assuming the Orange takes Alabama, the Rose's options to face the Pac-12 champion would be the AAC champion (presumably UCF), Northern Illinois and four at-large possibilities: Baylor, Clemson, Michigan State and Oregon. (The SEC championship game loser cannot go because the winner and at-large Alabama will get the SEC's two BCS slots).

Michigan State is an easy choice.

 

[MileHigh]

There is no doubt Grandaddy would take Michigan State. This is the same outfit that brought in crap-tacular Ron Zook-coached Illinois for the 2008 game just to keep the "tradition." Final: 49-17.

But this is assuming Sparty is eligible. It's 10th in the BCS standings now and if it gets its doors blown off by Ohio, it could drop out of the top 14, the cutoff to get into a BCS bowl. It's why I'm sure Grandaddy is secretly/praying//hoping/pulling for Michigan State to win Saturday to make it nice and easy.

And this business about not bringing in another Big Ten team for the Jan. 1 festivities because a Big Ten team will be there for the national title game the next week -- no. Grandaddy cares A LOT more about its pomp and circumstance and tradition on Jan. 1 than the national title game.

Grandaddy is ALL about the teams coming in on Christmas, the trip to Disneyland, the Beef Bowl, the parade -- with strict adherence to the rules of what constitutes a flower and what doesn't -- starting promptly at 8 a.m. on Jan. 1 (but Jan. 2 if the first falls on a Sunday, in the "deal with God" so it doesn't rain on the parade; it's only rained once on the parade since 1955), kickoff at 2 p.m. between teams from the Big Ten and the Pac-8/10/12, halftime entertainment consisting of the two schools' bands, and the blimp shots as the sun sets at 5 p.m. of the San Gabriels and the Pacific.

The national title game is more of an inconvenience to Grandaddy and something it reluctantly must do. It's all about Jan. 1.

 

[Layman]

Although it pains me as a fanboi looser, I think Ohio State gets bumped off Saturday. Certainly, their weak defense is a major reason, but I can't help thinking they're just "due." 24 in a row is a ton & they're bound to drop a steamer at some point. This week is as good a time as any.

They wouldn't drop out of the BCS mix & considering how they travel, they'd be an attractive team. On ESPN.con, Slabach (picking them to lose on Sat.) has them slotted in the Orange, vs. UCF. For whatever that's worth....

 

[DanOregon]

Nine of to top 11 playing the final week of the season. Could be interesting.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

This is what I'm waiting to happen.

Ohio State loses
Missouri wins

Alabama goes to the title game to play Florida State.

 

[LongTimeListener]

This is what I'm waiting to happen.

Ohio State loses
Missouri wins

Alabama goes to the title game to play Florida State.

Check your username, man!

In some years I could buy this, but if you put their resumes next to each other, there is nothing Alabama would have done this year that would be better than what Missouri did. Tide's biggest win was home against three-loss LSU. Mizzou beating Auburn would trump that by a mile.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

This is what I'm waiting to happen.

Ohio State loses
Missouri wins

Alabama goes to the title game to play Florida State.

Check your username, man!

In some years I could buy this, but if you put their resumes next to each other, there is nothing Alabama would have done this year that would be better than what Missouri did. Tide's biggest win was home against three-loss LSU. Mizzou beating Auburn would trump that by a mile.

I don't want that to happen. It's what I fear will happen because voters are going to look at a one-loss Alabama team and vote them over the SEC Champs.

 

[Dick Whitman]

This is what I'm waiting to happen.

Ohio State loses
Missouri wins

Alabama goes to the title game to play Florida State.

Check your username, man!

In some years I could buy this, but if you put their resumes next to each other, there is nothing Alabama would have done this year that would be better than what Missouri did. Tide's biggest win was home against three-loss LSU. Mizzou beating Auburn would trump that by a mile.

I don't want that to happen. It's what I fear will happen because voters are going to look at a one-loss Alabama team and vote them over the SEC Champs.

I don't think that the voters, even if they do that, which I don't think they would, will be able to overcome the computers in this case.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

If Ohio State, or God forbid, FSU loses, the other slot should go to the SEC Champ.

If Auburn wins, that will happen. If Missouri wins, voters are going to be sitting there thinking, "Who do I think would win head-to-head?" and quite a few will vote for Bama.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

I would feel a lot better about it if Mizzou was ranked higher than Bama.

 

[Dick Whitman]

Has someone run the numbers assuming a Missouri win this week? Surely they have.

 

[Dick Whitman]

The Harris Poll has Alabama barely ahead of Missouri this week.

There is absolutely no way Alabama plays for the national title this year, assuming Florida State and Ohio State don't both lose. None.

 

[Dick Whitman]

I'm pretty displeased that the title game is going to be ACC-Big Ten, most likely. I wanted to see someone end the SEC's run on the field.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Has someone run the numbers assuming a Missouri win this week? Surely they have.

I'm not sure how much the voters still factor in, I think it's less than it used to be, but I'm not sure.

I worry that it gets simplified to this. Missouri's only loss was to South Carolina at home, Alabama's only loss was to Auburn on the road.

Then people start overthinking and start saying, "Well, Bama lost on a fluke..."