Tropical Storm Florence threatens ... a lot of fish

[Mystery_Meat]

Or: Evacuate your homes, Aunt Flo is on the way
OR: Flo to East Coast -- kiss my grits!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.6N 40.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 15.6N 41.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 16.8N 43.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 17.7N 45.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 46.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 20.0N 50.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 54.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 59.0W 75 KT

And lest you think Ernesto didn't leave long-lasting effects in Florida, click here

 

[BigDog]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

Anything that's set to become a hurricane that far east of Puerto Rico is, um, not good.

 

[Columbo]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

Anything that's set to become a hurricane that far east of Puerto Rico is, um, not good.

South Florida is almost out of play, though, good news for the people who have gotten the most hurricanes the past two and a half seasons.

 

[BigDog]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

I never understand this crap. How can anything be out of play yet?

 

[Columbo]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

I never understand this crap. How can anything be out of play yet?

Well.... if the hurricane stays pretty flat west instead of the projection, sofla would be in play.

But once a storm gets north of your area, it won't jiggle south... unless it happens tot totally stall.

You're right though.... I should have said that if it splits the cone, it takes SoFla out of play.

 

[BigDog]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

I've split a cone or two in my day.

 

[Mystery_Meat]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

One thing that doesn't take SoFla out of play yet is a high pressure ridge expected to develop and flatten the track westbound over time. Of course, all this is well off in the future. Right now the only people who can feel confident this isn't their storm are people in the Winward Islands, the Caymans and the Bay of Campeche areas.

Of course, the stupid thing could die or get sent northeast and become a fish storm.

 

[SF_Express]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

Anything that's set to become a hurricane that far east of Puerto Rico is, um, not good.

Actually, the other thing I heard the other day is that if it becomes a hurricane real early, way out, that the chances of it being a major factor to the U.S. mainland are diminished, as happened with Debbie.

 

[Columbo]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

One thing that doesn't take SoFla out of play yet is a high pressure ridge expected to develop and flatten the track westbound over time. Of course, all this is well off in the future. Right now the only people who can feel confident this isn't their storm are people in the Winward Islands, the Caymans and the Bay of Campeche areas.

Of course, the stupid thing could die or get sent northeast and become a fish storm.

The cone does show that ever-so-slight bend.

 

[Hank_Scorpio]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

So we're talking about two weeks or so before it gets close to the US shoreline?

 

[Mystery_Meat]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

Columbo: Here's a map of the various computer models and where they think soon-to-be Florence might go (can and will change often, of course):

Hank: Probably 7-10 days away if it does make a move here. More a heads-up that something's brewing and the computers early on have it being a possible threat instead of doing the Bermuda High Hop and shooting out into the North Atlantic.

 

[2muchcoffeeman]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

Anything that's set to become a hurricane that far east of Puerto Rico is, um, not good.

Actually, the other thing I heard the other day is that if it becomes a hurricane real early, way out, that the chances of it being a major factor to the U.S. mainland are diminished, as happened with Debbie.

Seems like usually when a storm gets busy in that area, it becomes a serious threat only to the Azores.

 

[Columbo]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

Columbo: Here's a map of the various computer models and where they think soon-to-be Florence might go (can and will change often, of course):

Hank: Probably 7-10 days away if it does make a move here. More a heads-up that something's brewing and the computers early on have it being a possible threat instead of doing the Bermuda High Hop and shooting out into the North Atlantic.

The computer models would be much more disquieting for South Floridians.

Why even look at the maps.... we're ****ed again.

 

[Mystery_Meat]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

Of course, what happens after the 5-day period is still to be determined. Depends on that high and any upper-level lows around. In 10 days this could be a Cat 5 sitting on Miami or an extratropical low racing towards Iceland.

Plus the storm is still in its early stages, and if the center reforms north, it might get sucked up by a trough and sent to a wavery grave.

As always, prepare, pay attention to advisories and if Jim Cantore knocks on your door asking for a flashlight and Triskets, just swallow the gun and end it right on your porch. That guy's always bad news.

 

[Columbo]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

Of course, what happens after the 5-day period is still to be determined. Depends on that high and any upper-level lows around. In 10 days this could be a Cat 5 sitting on Miami or an extratropical low racing towards Iceland.

Plus the storm is still in its early stages, and if the center reforms north, it might get sucked up by a trough and sent to a wavery grave.

As always, prepare, pay attention to advisories and if Jim Cantore knocks on your door asking for a flashlight and Triskets, just swallow the gun and end it right on your porch. That guy's always bad news.

Wahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Football_Bat]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

Florence ... that sounds like a bad ass name for a hurricane.

Gordon ... not so much. That one has Canada written all over it.

 

[slappy4428]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

A hot wet windbag named Florence or a hot wet windbag IN Florence...
I can picture both...

 

[JayFarrar]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

As always, prepare, pay attention to advisories and if Jim Cantore knocks on your door asking for a flashlight and Triskets, just swallow the gun and end it right on your porch. That guy's always bad news.

Holy crap, that's like the funniest thing I have read on here in a long time.
And on a side note: Do you work for the freaking Weather Channel? You don't see "extratropical low racing towards Iceland" very often.
And I'm a little disappointed on one has put "the seas turn red" and "Aunt Flo" in the same sentence.

 

[Mystery_Meat]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

As always, prepare, pay attention to advisories and if Jim Cantore knocks on your door asking for a flashlight and Triskets, just swallow the gun and end it right on your porch. That guy's always bad news.

Holy crap, that's like the funniest thing I have read on here in a long time.
And on a side note: Do you work for the freaking Weather Channel? You don't see "extratropical low racing towards Iceland" very often.
And I'm a little disappointed on one has put "the seas turn red" and "Aunt Flo" in the same sentence.

Nah, I'm just a weather nerd/meterologist wannabe. Got fascinated by tropical systems since we had a near miss in 1984 and again with Glorida the next year, thought I'd be a weatherman when (if) I grew up, but alas, too much math and science ripped up my dream like wind shear. I used to work for the same company that owns TWC, so I could look at my check every two weeks and say "hey, John Hope and Jim Cantore get a check just like mine. Just with 30 times more money."

Side note: Landmark Communications had a company-wide drawing where the winner got to go to any of Landmark's holdings. Winner? None other than Danger Jim, who chose to visit the TV station they owned in Vegas. This was before he became the Official "We're ****ed" Bellweather, so nobody out there panicked.

 

[JBHawkEye]

Re: New depression expected to become Florence, possible East Coast threat

Instead of Cantore, it would be better if Stephanie Abrams showed up. The Weather Channel seems to put her on the edge of the storm, and she's hot.