The First 2012 SJ.Com Presidential Poll

[Moderator1]

I'll throw one of these up every few weeks and vary the question. PLEASE read it carefully. It does not say who gets your vote - it says who will win.

We'll do these as long as the assholes don't get out of hand and ruin it for everyone. In which case we'll go back to no politics.

For these threads, vote and tell us how you voted and why. One sentence. Don't quote another post, don't debate another answer. Essentially, you get one vote and one post on this thread.

We thank you in advance.

 

[Moderator1]

Obama.

While there is some justifiable dissatisfaction, I don't think Romney is a strong enough candidate to pull in enough Obama supporters from 2008.

 

[Bubbler]

What Moddy said. Subject to change based on economy, etc.

 

[Boom_70]

Obama

 

[JakeandElwood]

Obama.

Romney just doesn't seem like the type of person who can rally great support behind him. He reminds me a lot of Kerry in '04.

 

[imjustagirl]

Obama, because inertia is powerful and because Romney is a psycho.

 

[PCLoadLetter]

Obama -- economy is improving, and I don't think Romney will make a convincing enough case that he would put things on a better track.

 

[imjustagirl]

Neither. And I say this in all seriousness, I'm writing in someone. Bob Cook is the leader in the clubhouse.

Per Moddy:

PLEASE read it carefully. It does not say who gets your vote - it says who will win.

(sorry for breaking the rules and quoting him, Moddy.)

 

[Moderator1]

Forgiven - and thanks everybody for following along thus far, though it is early. The "get your vote" polls will work the same way. But, as IJAG noted, this is who will win. And I'm pretty sure either Obama or Romney will win.

 

[The Big Ragu]

Obama.

I also put some degree of probability on the U.S. economy turning even worse (especially if there is a Euro meltdown before November, and a spillover effect), which would be the way I can see him becoming vulnerable.

 

[Starman]

Obama.

He's done a less-than-spectacular job, but even economic disaster before November (which Team R will do its best to bring on) won't necessarily sink him, because there's not even the slightest scintillla of evidence the other guys have any better ideas, or for that matter, any ideas at all, other than "let's make the already-rich a lot richer."

 

[KYSportsWriter]

Obama -- The economy is improving and Romney scares the **** out of me.

 

[TigerVols]

Unless war with Iran breaks out -- thus driving gas to $5-$7 a gallon -- I'm confident that Obama will win because:

1. It's a 99% v. 1% election, and the GOP's chosen a 1% posterboy.
2. Obama leads among women by anywhere from 12 to 19 percent, depending on the poll you choose.
3. Obama leads among Hispanics, according to a poll I saw last night, something like 80 to 14 percent.
4. Obama is just a much better communicator and campaigner.
5. The GOP ground game has deteriorated drastically in recent months. http://news.yahoo.com/why-romney-ground-game-lacking-145444676.html

 

[RedHotChiliPrepper]

Obama.

I don't invest much of myself into politics, but like J&E said, I think people are clamoring for a change, there's just not a strong enough candidate to bring it about. Essentially it comes down to Obama being the lesser of two evils, I think.

 

[Mystery Meat II]

Obama:Clinton::Romney:Dole. Unless there's a massive downturn in the economy, I don't see Romney attracting any votes that didn't go to McCain four years ago.

 

[YankeeFan]

If election is held today, Obama.

Vote is subject to change.

 

[sgreenwell]

Obama.

Romney just doesn't seem like the type of person who can rally great support behind him. He reminds me a lot of Kerry in '04.

This was pretty much going to be my exact reasoning. Unless Obama is caught with a live girl or a dead boy, I can't see how he loses.

 

[The Big Ragu]

It's a live boy or a dead girl.

And no quoting other posts, even though you meant it harmlessly.

 

[LongTimeListener]

In Bob Cook's absence (thus far), I will cite his favorite factor: Romney's approval rating plummets into the basement with every new state he visits. People just don't like him.

Obama got 365 electoral votes last time, with 53 percent of the popular vote. This time he gets to about 56 percent and pushes 400 EVs.

 

[sgreenwell]

Big Ragu, sorry about that. I fail at reading comprehension (and shouldn't be posting while covering really boring meetings).