Tebow's success explained with stats

[poindexter]

It isn't luck and it isn't God. Its great quarterback play.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/11/29/tim.tebow/index.html

Put most simply, Tebow consistently outplays the other team's quarterback, often by wide margins. This superior play is the No. 1 reason for Denver's sudden success -- now 5-1 with Tebow at QB this year after a dismal 1-4 start....

Here's how Tebow stacks up against each opposing quarterback this year in traditional passer rating and in Real Quarterback Rating.

Week 7 -- Denver 18, Miami 15
Matt Moore: 92.6 passer rating; 69.6 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 91.7 passer rating; 80.5 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+10.9)

Week 8 -- Detroit 45, Denver 10
Matt Stafford-Shaun Hill: 126.0 passer rating; 118.2 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 56.8 passer rating; 48.2 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Stafford (+70.0)

Week 9 -- Denver 38, Oakland 24
Carson Palmer: 79.7 passer rating; 69.4 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 98.1 passer rating; 108.2 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+38.8)

Week 10 -- Denver 17, Kansas City 10
Matt Cassel-Tyler Palko: 73.2 passer rating; 67.9 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 102.6 passer rating; 122.7 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+54.8)

Week 11 -- Denver 17, N.Y. Jets 13
Mark Sanchez: 67.9 passer rating; 62.2 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 61.3 passer rating; 87.1 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+24.9)

Week 12 -- Denver 16, San Diego 13
Philip Rivers: 77.1 passer rating, 68.8 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 95.4 pass rating, 94.4 Real QB Rating

Real QB Rating advantage: Tebow (+25.6)

In other words, Tebow is no statistical circus freak winning in spite of himself. Tebow's Broncos are winning because he consistently outperforms the opposing quarterback when you take into account all aspects of production: passing, running, sacks, total touchdowns, interceptions and fumbles. In fact, he consistently outperforms them by a wide margin.

Denver is 5-0 when Tebow produces a higher Real QB Rating than the opposing quarterback and 0-1 when the other team has the advantage. And those results are no coincidence.

 

[Stoney]

But that's not the honorable way to play.

 

[LongTimeListener]

That seems like a very long-winded and overly numerical way of saying "he doesn't turn the ball over."

But I approve of anything that sticks in the establishment's craw, so I am for it.

 

[Azrael]

Sounds like someone's trying to sell some Real QB metrics.

 

[Bob Cook]

I won't repost stats I've already posted, but I think Byrne misses the point. Tebow isn't outplaying the other QB all game, necessarily. He's WILDLY outplaying him in the fourth quarter. Though as lousy as Tebow often is in the first three quarters, he's not making any negative plays. After Miami and Detroit, he's barely been sacked, and he's not throwing interceptions. And he has a defense that can hold the other team if a three-and-out deep in their own territory gives the other team an advantageous field position.

 

[Pancamo]

Ratings are exaggerated by the interceptions. Tebow has thrown one so his ratings are higher than Sanchez and Palmer, who threw huge picks to turn games around.

Week 10 -- Denver 17, Kansas City 10
Matt Cassel-Tyler Palko: 73.2 passer rating; 67.9 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 102.6 passer rating; 122.7 Real QB Rating


Tebow was 2-8 for 69 yards and 1 td.

Cassel and Palko were 18-34-140 yds 1 td


Do those stats indicate Tebow outplayed the other two bums?

 

[Evil ... Thy name is Orville Redenbacher!!]

I'm going to wait until our deep-thinking NFL authority tells you all how wrong you are. He'd be here now, but he's thinking - on a whole 'nother level.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Debatable -- Tebow had 34.5 yards per completion!!!! -- but when his rushing stats are added in it certainly evens the score. He also was playing with a lead the whole game.

Passer rating and its ilk, like this stat, are being completely misused in this day and age by citing a per-game number. It's nearly impossible to have a passer rating over 100 if you throw an interception and nearly impossible to have a rating under 100 if you don't. The percentage ranges are too wide to have an impact over anything less than a full season or at least four games.

 

[qtlaw]

Without Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil and the rest of the defense (not to mention his o-line) Tebow is 1-5.

Fran Tarkenton ran for a lot of yards and had an amazing ability to scramble in the pocket but did not get to the SB until he was paired with the Purple People Eaters.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Without Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil and the rest of the defense (not to mention his o-line) Tebow is 1-5.

Fran Tarkenton ran for a lot of yards and had an amazing ability to scramble in the pocket but did not get to the SB until he was paired with the Purple People Eaters.

Maybe so, but with all of that he is 5-1 where his predecessor was 1-4.

 

[vicd]

Tim Tebow is no Trent Dilfer.

 

[outofplace]

Without Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil and the rest of the defense (not to mention his o-line) Tebow is 1-5.

Fran Tarkenton ran for a lot of yards and had an amazing ability to scramble in the pocket but did not get to the SB until he was paired with the Purple People Eaters.

Maybe so, but with all of that he is 5-1 where his predecessor was 1-4.

Against different opponents when the defense wasn't playing as well.

 

[Stoney]

Without Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil and the rest of the defense (not to mention his o-line) Tebow is 1-5.

And were "Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil and the rest of the defense" not playing when this same team was 1-4 with Kyle Orton?

 

[LongTimeListener]

Without Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil and the rest of the defense (not to mention his o-line) Tebow is 1-5.

Fran Tarkenton ran for a lot of yards and had an amazing ability to scramble in the pocket but did not get to the SB until he was paired with the Purple People Eaters.

Maybe so, but with all of that he is 5-1 where his predecessor was 1-4.

Against different opponents when the defense wasn't playing as well.

Raiders and Chargers beat Broncos in Denver while Orton was starting.

Broncos beat Raiders and Chargers on road while Tebow was starting.

The rest of it is mostly a wash -- the only truly unwinnable game was in Green Bay, Orton also played Tennessee and Cincinnati while Tebow has faced the Jets.

 

[Pancamo]

How many games had Palmer started before the Bronco game?

A healthy Jason Campbell is better than Palmer starting his first game with a week of practice.

 

[outofplace]

To illustrate my point.

The Broncos gave up an average of 28 points per game in the first five contests of the season. Maybe those guys on defense were playing, but they certainly weren't playing as well. That average has dropped to 20 points per game over the last six, and even that is skewed by the 45 points the Lions hung on them. In the five victories, the Broncos have given up an average of only 15 points per game.

The Broncos' offense, by the way, is averaging only 19.3 points per game in six contests with Tebow, down from 22.0 without him.

Are there other factors at play, such as the turnovers leading to points for the other team? Sure. But at least I'm acknowledging the potential flaw in my numbers, something those praying to tha altar of Tebow refuse to do with theirs.

 

[IllMil]

Ratings are exaggerated by the interceptions. Tebow has thrown one so his ratings are higher than Sanchez and Palmer, who threw huge picks to turn games around.

Week 10 -- Denver 17, Kansas City 10
Matt Cassel-Tyler Palko: 73.2 passer rating; 67.9 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 102.6 passer rating; 122.7 Real QB Rating


Tebow was 2-8 for 69 yards and 1 td.

Cassel and Palko were 18-34-140 yds 1 td


Do those stats indicate Tebow outplayed the other two bums?

So Tebow's numbers are better because the other two guys threw huge picks to lose games, while Tebow did not. You are right then. It is a sham. It puts too much emphasis on ****ty, game-losing throws.

 

[Michael_ Gee]

It's my opinion that if a quarterback threw no interceptions in a season, his team would have a better won-loss record than an equivalent team in other aspects whose quarterback threw for 4000-5000 yards, 30-plus touchdowns, but had 15-20 interceptions, even if said quarterback threw for less than 150 yards a game. Interceptions are the single biggest play in the game.

 

[Pancamo]

Ratings are exaggerated by the interceptions. Tebow has thrown one so his ratings are higher than Sanchez and Palmer, who threw huge picks to turn games around.

Week 10 -- Denver 17, Kansas City 10
Matt Cassel-Tyler Palko: 73.2 passer rating; 67.9 Real QB Rating
Tim Tebow: 102.6 passer rating; 122.7 Real QB Rating


Tebow was 2-8 for 69 yards and 1 td.

Cassel and Palko were 18-34-140 yds 1 td


Do those stats indicate Tebow outplayed the other two bums?

So Tebow's numbers are better because the other two guys threw huge picks to lose games, while Tebow did not. You are right then. It is a sham. It puts too much emphasis on ****ty, game-losing throws.

Those picks are huge, cost the teams the game and should be punitive to a QB's rating but the system weighs a hail mary pick at the end of the half in the same manner.

The system is stupid.

 

[IllMil]

It's my opinion that if a quarterback threw no interceptions in a season, his team would have a better won-loss record than an equivalent team in other aspects whose quarterback threw for 4000-5000 yards, 30-plus touchdowns, but had 15-20 interceptions, even if said quarterback threw for less than 150 yards a game. Interceptions are the single biggest play in the game.

I would agree with this. And this is why I think guys like Montana, Young and Rodgers are the cream of the crop. They make nice plays, but they almost never throw picks. Rodgers' INT % numbers are pretty insane.