SCOTUS: ObamaCare Decision

[YankeeFan]

Decision expected to be announced tomorrow or Monday.

Get your predictions in before the ruling:

Television cameras will surround the Supreme Court on Thursday morning, as they did Monday, anticipating something that may, again, not happen.

The momentous healthcare decision could be announced Thursday. Or not. All we really know is that it is extremely likely to be handed down by the following Thursday, June 28, when the court is expected to end its current term.

The court works in secrecy as it prepares its opinions, and outsiders might be surprised to learn that some of its work is done at the last minute. The justices would have voted almost immediately after three days of oral arguments last March on whether President Obama’s healthcare overhaul is constitutional. Although that vote would normally have determined the outcome of the case, there is a lot of back and forth before the majority opinion and the dissents, if any, are finished.

Last Friday was the deadline for justices to hand in dissents. Then whoever is writing the majority opinion – the betting is on Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. – has the option of responding to any criticism of the ruling in his own opinion.

The decisions are printed inside the ornate 1935 Corinthian-style building, and handed out to reporters as the justice who authored the opinion announces the decision from the bench shortly after 10 a.m. By tradition the senior justice goes last, so healthcare is likely to be the last decision announced on the day it comes down.

Only a few times in modern history have the results leaked ahead of time, once reputedly from a comment by a justice to a reporter, another time from a talkative printer.

The court is not meeting Friday, so if the healthcare decision does not come Thursday, the next opportunity would be Monday.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-supreme-court-may-release-healthcare-verdict-thursday-20120620,0,4104967.story

 

[YankeeFan]

Crap.

Should be in Sports & News.

Would a Mod please move?

Thanks.

 

[Starman]

OK: I predict they throw the whole thing out lock stock and barrel.

 

[albert77]

The only thing I'll predict with any certainty is that the mandatory health insurance provision bites the dust. Flagrantly, blatantly unconstitutional. Beyond that, my guess is a lot of it stays in place. Teabaggers may not like it, but there are a lot of aspects of Obamacare that are beneficial to people like me and my wife (mid-50s, middle-income).

 

[Baron Scicluna]

The only thing I'll predict with any certainty is that the mandatory health insurance provision bites the dust. Flagrantly, blatantly unconstitutional. Beyond that, my guess is a lot of it stays in place. Teabaggers may not like it, but there are a lot of aspects of Obamacare that are beneficial to people like me and my wife (mid-50s, middle-income).

Ditto.

The mandate gets tossed. Maybe one or two other things get tossed. The rest stays.

 

[Starman]

The only thing I'll predict with any certainty is that the mandatory health insurance provision bites the dust. Flagrantly, blatantly unconstitutional. Beyond that, my guess is a lot of it stays in place. Teabaggers may not like it, but there are a lot of aspects of Obamacare that are beneficial to people like me and my wife (mid-50s, middle-income).

The Supreme Court doesn't care about that.

 

[Dick Whitman]

The only thing I'll predict with any certainty is that the mandatory health insurance provision bites the dust. Flagrantly, blatantly unconstitutional.

Nope. Completely Constitutional. Mandate stays. Whole thing stays.

 

[RickStain]

6-3 to uphold everything

 

[Dick Whitman]

6-3 to uphold everything

Alito, Thomas, and Scalia?

I'm guessing 7-2 or 8-1, with only Thomas or Thomas/Alito dissenting.

 

[LongTimeListener]

I'm going to predict this thread endures a couple of cooling-off periods, possibly one before the decision is announced.

 

[Dick Whitman]

I'm going to predict this thread endures a couple of cooling-off periods, possibly one before the decision is announced.

I hope not. It seems we've had some outstanding, spirited, civil debates on this topic. But all bets might be off when we aren't dealing in hypotheticals any more. I remember how the Bush-Kerry election thread was really good until Kerry lost. Then it was like a nuclear bomb went off here.

 

[Armchair_QB]

That's because liberals are poor losers.

 

[ColdCat]

my prediction is I'll have a few friends post on facebook that they liked the ruling, a few post that it's the wrong choice by SCOTUS, some will be a little more hysterical than others, and the day after the ruling I still won't be able to make a doctors appointment in my hometown since I still won't be covered.

 

[Brooklyn Bridge]

6-3 to uphold everything

Alito, Thomas, and Scalia?

I'm guessing 7-2 or 8-1, with only Thomas or Thomas/Alito dissenting.

WOW. I think that is a bold prediction. If anything I agree with the previous sentiment that the mandate will get tossed and everything else will get to stay. Mixed bag. Something for everyone.

 

[Dick Whitman]

6-3 to uphold everything

Alito, Thomas, and Scalia?

I'm guessing 7-2 or 8-1, with only Thomas or Thomas/Alito dissenting.

WOW. I think that is a bold prediction. If anything I agree with the previous sentiment that the mandate will get tossed and everything else will get to stay. Mixed bag. Something for everyone.

I don't think it's as bold as some might think. I think the bolder prediction is that the Supreme Court would overturn a major piece of legislation. It has hardly ever done so.

 

[ucacm]

Upheld. SCOTUS decides it just doesn't want to be involved in invalidating such a major piece of legislation. Theme of majority opinion is telling people they are free to elect officials that will overturn it.

 

[schiezainc]

Individual mandate is gone. The rest stays.

5-2 vote.

 

[Armchair_QB]

5-2?

 

[Starman]

6-3 to uphold everything

Alito, Thomas, and Scalia?

I'm guessing 7-2 or 8-1, with only Thomas or Thomas/Alito dissenting.

Has Thomas ever been the lone dissenter on anything?

The whole thing is chucked, 5-4.

 

[Bubbler]

Mandate out, rest in.