OnTheRiver
Active Member
- Joined
- Apr 26, 2003
- Messages
- 6,181
Gonna be a long couple weeks.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS
BEEN TRACKED WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEEP
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A
SHIP VERY NEAR THE CENTER ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1005 MB NEAR
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 AND 2.0
RESPECTIVELY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 30 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CONVECTION...THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ABATING AND THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED
IN ALL QUADRANTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL ALOFT...RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY AND COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 3 DAYS.
THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...PREDICTING AN
INTENSE HURRICANE.
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