Recruiting rankings

[WaylonJennings]

I think this is a journalism topic - just because it encompasses a niche part of this business, the recruiting sites (Rivals.com, Scout.com) and gurus (Tom Lemming, Allen Wallace, etc.).

Do you think they're accurate? Biased? A total crapshoot not even worth mentioning - or at least taking seriously?

I tend to think they're a little more accurate than they used to be in the early days of this stuff being covered, just because there are more sources of information and more people out there doing the evaluating.

That being said, I have to raise an eyebrow when a Texas Tech or West Virginia, schools that never top those lists, becomes a powerhouse, while elite recruiting schools like Notre Dame or Michigan struggle.

 

[TheMethod]

This has been discussed in great detail. I think the actual recruiting gurus probably do a good job of identifying the most talented high school players and ranking them. The problem is that it's really difficult to project players to the next level. This is true of junior high to high school, high school to college and college to the NFL.

I think the gurus are as accurate as they can be under the circumstances. The local "reporter" guys who cover the commitments and stuff? Take everything they write with four grains of salt. A lot of them are little more than recruiters themselves.

 

[WaylonJennings]

This has been discussed in great detail. I think the actual recruiting gurus probably do a good job of identifying the most talented high school players and ranking them. The problem is that it's really difficult to project players to the next level. This is true of junior high to high school, high school to college and college to the NFL.

I wonder it's easier to project guys into a system - the way Mike Leach or Paul Johnson has to do it - than to just project guys as general football players in a fairly standard offensive and/or defensive system.

Another thing I've wondered is how much grades get taken into account. Let's say there's a kid who can't hope to get into Michigan or USC or Texas, but West Virginia or Boise State can take a chance on him. If same said kid wasn't such an academic risk, would he be piling up offers from the big-time schools and therefore ranked higher?

In other words, how much of their evaluations are based on what they actually see with their own eyes - and how much is based on which schools the kid has offers lined up from?

 

[TheMethod]

I think if you wanted to look, you could find plenty of evidence that the school to which a player commits does affect his ranking. I can't remember who did the story -- maybe Greg Doyel, maybe not -- but somebody within the last year or so looked at all the McDonald's All-Americans Duke had on its roster and weighed it against the late-season failings and concluded that Duke wasn't actually underachieving so much as it is chronically overrated because of its unreasonably ranked recruiting classes and generally soft nonconference schedule. In essence, we should all see this coming, but since it's Duke, nobody ever does.

Just a quick look at some of Duke's recent McDonald's guys:

2005
Eric Boateng
Josh McRoberts
Greg Paulus

2004
DeMarcus Nelson

2003
Luol Deng

2002
Sean Dockery
J.J. Redick
Shavlik Randolph
Michael Thompson

I don't want to spend too much time on this, so I won't go around comparing it to a bunch of other schools, but you can see that several of those guys weren't very good college players.

 

[zebracoy]

I'm sorry, but I'm taking the advice of Pete Carroll, Mack Brown, Urban Meyer, etc. over the 35-year-old couch potato any day of the week.

When a kid's coach said he had a school like Texas calling him routinely, and the couch potato writes that the kid projects as a second-string wideout, I'm going to trust Mr. Brown.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

It's about 1,000X easier in basketball than it is for football.

 

[luckyducky]

Understandable, zebra, but if the evaluator is comparing these kids to each other, maybe he does fall down the list a bit. It's not like USC or Texas or Michigan (when they were good) have only recruited just the cream of the crop. With so many schools out there, not everyone can get the best quarterback or center in the country.


There are two different things at play here -- ranking the classes the teams sign by school and ranking the kids as a "top 100" or "top 10" or whatever recruit. The kids' individual rankings are done well before they even verbal to a school, let alone sign an NLI, so those are rarely influenced by where the kids are going. OTOH, the school rankings are going to be different for each outlet, especially when their "top 100" is different, because they factor in how many of their "ranked" kids have signed with each school to decide who has the "best" incoming class.

And Waylon, at least with basketball rankings, it seems like grades are rarely, if at all, a factor -- if you look at the boys' side, I've seen a couple handfuls of those top kids that end up going to prep schools for a year so they can qualify.

And Mizzou is, of course, correct. Basketball = cake compared to football rankings.

 

[93Devil]

They days of assistant coach Williams finding "Mike" Jordan at some half-baked camp in Eastern or Western Carolina are long, long gone.

Lord, I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall of that gym, and then being there when Williams gives Smith the heads up on what he might have uncovered.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Most of the top recruits these days are "discovered" before they're done growing. I remember seeing LeBron James at a camp when he was a sophomore in high school and there was no question whatsoever that he would be an instant superstar in the NBA.

There are plenty of football players in the top 20 of most of these recruiting lists that will never be starters in college.

List the USA Today top QB of the last 20 years and there are probably 10-12 that never made the NFL and probably 5-6 who were never the regular starter in college.

 

[Johnny Dangerously]

Then there are recruiting sites that tell a player he can get a higher star rating if he plays in a certain All-American game.

 

[93Devil]

Most of the top recruits these days are "discovered" before they're done growing. I remember seeing LeBron James at a camp when he was a sophomore in high school and there was no question whatsoever that he would be an instant superstar in the NBA.

There are plenty of football players in the top 20 of most of these recruiting lists that will never be starters in college.

List the USA Today top QB of the last 20 years and there are probably 10-12 that never made the NFL and probably 5-6 who were never the regular starter in college.

I would three of the top 20 high school QBs go on to the NFL in a good year.

I think Rivals will show their old rankings. Trust me, it ain't pretty.

 

[Mizzougrad96]

Most of the top recruits these days are "discovered" before they're done growing. I remember seeing LeBron James at a camp when he was a sophomore in high school and there was no question whatsoever that he would be an instant superstar in the NBA.

There are plenty of football players in the top 20 of most of these recruiting lists that will never be starters in college.

List the USA Today top QB of the last 20 years and there are probably 10-12 that never made the NFL and probably 5-6 who were never the regular starter in college.

I would three of the top 20 high school QBs go on to the NFL in a good year.

I think Rivals will show their old rankings. Trust me, it ain't pretty.

I meant the top overall QB in a given year.

 

[93Devil]

Class of 2007 (Prospects - QB - All States - All Statuses)
NAME POS HT WT SCHOOL RANK GRADE STATUS SCHOOL NOTES
Jimmy Clausen QB 6'3" 218 Oaks Christian H.S. (CA) QB #1 86 Signed Notre Dame
Ryan Mallett QB 6'6" 230 Texas H.S. (TX) QB #2 85 Signed Michigan
Tyrod Taylor QB 6'1" 185 Hampton H.S. (VA) QB #3 84 Signed Virginia Tech
John Brantley QB 6'3" 205 Trinity Catholic H.S. (FL) QB #4 84 Signed Florida
Aaron Corp QB 6'3" 180 Lutheran H.S. (CA) QB #5 82 Signed USC
Stephen Garcia QB 6'2" 210 Jefferson Senior H.S. (FL) QB #6 82 Signed South Carolina
Logan Gray QB 6'2" 190 Rock Bridge H.S. (MO) QB #7 82 Signed Georgia
Clint Brewster QB 6'1" 175 J. K. Mullen H.S. (CO) QB #8 82 Signed Minnesota
Cameron Newton QB 6'5" 225 Westlake H.S. (GA) QB #9 81 Signed Florida
Jarrett Lee QB 6'3" 195 Brenham H.S. (TX) QB #10 81 Signed LSU
Robert Marve QB 6'2" 185 Plant Senior H.S. (FL) QB #11 80 Signed Miami (FL)
Willy Korn QB 6'1" 200 James Byrnes H.S. (SC) QB #12 80 Signed Clemson
Chris Forcier QB 6'3" 180 Saint Augustine H.S. (CA) QB #13 79 Signed UCLA
Pat Bostick QB 6'4" 225 Manheim Township H.S. (PA) QB #14 79 Signed Pittsburgh
Mike Paulus QB 6'5" 220 Christian Brothers Academy (NY) QB #15 79 Signed North Carolina
Bert Reed QB 5'11" 170 Bay H.S. (FL) QB #16 79 Signed Florida State
Peter Lalich QB 6'5" 235 West Springfield H.S. (VA) QB #18 78 Signed Virginia
Brock Mansion QB 6'5" 225 Episcopal H.S. (TX) QB #19 78 Signed California
Nick Fanuzzi QB 6'3" 200 Winston Churchill High (TX) QB #20 78 Signed Alabama

 

[93Devil]

Class of 2006 (Prospects - QB - All States - All Statuses)
NAME POS HT WT SCHOOL RANK GRADE STATUS SCHOOL NOTES
Matthew Stafford QB 6'3" 210 Highland Park H.S. (TX) QB #1 93 Signed Georgia
Mitch Mustain QB 6'3" 205 Springdale H.S. (AR) QB #2 91 Signed Arkansas
Jevan Snead QB 6'4" 210 Stephenville H.S. (TX) QB #3 91 Signed Texas
Tim Tebow QB 6'3" 225 Nease H.S. (FL) QB #4 90 Signed Florida
Jake Locker QB 6'3" 210 Ferndale H.S. (WA) QB #5 83 Signed Washington
Zachary Frazer QB 6'4" 209 Mechanicsburg H.S. (PA) QB #6 83 Signed Notre Dame
Demetrius Jones QB 6'4" 184 Morgan Park H.S. (IL) QB #7 82 Signed Notre Dame
Isiah Williams QB 6'2" 197 Chicago Vocational School (IL) QB #8 82 Signed Illinois
Jeremy Ricker QB 6'3" 205 Bishop McDevitt H.S. (PA) QB #9 81 Signed Maryland
Patrick Devlin QB 6'3" 194 Downingtown East H.S. (PA) QB #10 81 Signed Penn State
Neil Caudle QB 6'2" 204 Spain Park H.S. (AL) QB #11 81 Signed Auburn
Josh Freeman QB 6'6" 215 Grandview Senior H.S. (MO) QB #12 80 Signed Kansas State
Tyler Lyon QB 6'6" 215 William S. Hart H.S. (CA) QB #13 80 Signed Arizona
Kevin Riley QB 6'3" 190 Beaverton H.S. (OR) QB #14 80 Signed California
Steven Ensminger QB 6'2" 185 West Monroe H.S. (LA) QB #15 80 Signed Auburn
Sam Bradford QB 6'5" 200 Putnam City North H.S. (OK) QB #16 79 Signed Oklahoma

 

[93Devil]

Pro-style QBs

2002 Rank Pos Ht/Wt Schools
1 Ben Olson
Thousand Oaks (CA) QB 6-5/205 list
2 Trent Edwards
Los Gatos (CA) QB 6-4/190 Stanford
3 Justin Zwick
Massillon (OH) Washington QB 6-4/205 Ohio State
4 Anthony Martinez
Ashland (VA) Patrick Henry QB 6-4/220 Virginia
5 Matt Gutierrez
Concord (CA) De La Salle QB 6-4/208 Michigan
6 Drew Stanton
Farmington Hills (MI) Harrison QB 6-4/215 Michigan State
7 Marc Guillon
Miramonte (CA) QB 6-4/185 Miami-FL
8 Drew Olson
Piedmont (CA) Piedmont QB 6-2/190 UCLA
9 Brandon Cox
Trussville (AL) Hewitt-Trussville QB 6-3/190 Auburn
10 Joe Tereshinski
Athens (GA) Athens Academy QB 6-3/205 Georgia


2002 running backs
1 Ciatrick Fason
Jacksonville (FL) Fletcher RB 6-1/210 Florida
2 Gerald Riggs Jr.
Chattanooga (TN) Red Bank RB 6-0/220 Tennessee
3 Jerious Norwood
Brandon (MS) RB 6-1/200 Mississippi State
4 DeShawn Wynn
Cincinnati (OH) Reading RB 6-0/215 Florida
5 Selvin Young
Houston (TX) Jersey Village RB 6-0/195 Texas
6 David Horne
Omaha (NE) Central RB 6-0/195 Nebraska
7 Nick Turner
Atlanta (GA) Washington RB 5-11/191 Mississippi State
8 Michael Cooper
Sylvania (GA) Screven County RB 6-0/215 Georgia
9 Robert Merrill
San Antonio (TX) Taft RB 5-11/200 Texas Christian
10 Thomas Clayton
Alexandria (VA) Mount Vernon RB 6-0/197 Florida State

 

[Mighty_Wingman]

2002 running backs
1 Ciatrick Fason
Jacksonville (FL) Fletcher RB 6-1/210 Florida
2 Gerald Riggs Jr.
Chattanooga (TN) Red Bank RB 6-0/220 Tennessee
3 Jerious Norwood
Brandon (MS) RB 6-1/200 Mississippi State
4 DeShawn Wynn
Cincinnati (OH) Reading RB 6-0/215 Florida
5 Selvin Young
Houston (TX) Jersey Village RB 6-0/195 Texas
6 David Horne
Omaha (NE) Central RB 6-0/195 Nebraska
7 Nick Turner
Atlanta (GA) Washington RB 5-11/191 Mississippi State
8 Michael Cooper
Sylvania (GA) Screven County RB 6-0/215 Georgia
9 Robert Merrill
San Antonio (TX) Taft RB 5-11/200 Texas Christian
10 Thomas Clayton
Alexandria (VA) Mount Vernon RB 6-0/197 Florida State

I gotta say, this list isn't bad. Out of all the hundreds and hundreds of high-school senior running backs in 2002, the guys at Rivals picked out the following top 5:

1. A two-year starter at a top SEC program.
2. Despite an injury-plagued career, finished with 1,107 yards rushing as a senior.
3. A three-year starter who owns the career rushing record at an SEC school.
4. An admitted underachiever who nonetheless rushed for 2,000 yards at an SEC school and led a national champion in rushing.
5. Another injury-plagued guy who still finished his career with 3,060 all-purpose yards and 29 touchdowns.

That ain't bad. Rivals has its hits and misses, but their track record's pretty damn impressive.

 

[Appgrad05]

Running back may be the most difficult position to project. There's just so many variables, from a guy's ability to read blocks to how fast he gets to the line of scrimmage to how good the offensive line was, to get it exactly right. We've all seen 2,000 yard high school backs who flounder on DII teams. Heck, a kid I used to cover gained something like 500 yards his senior season. He's starting as a redshirt freshman on a FCS team.

 

[Inky_Wretch]

Then there are recruiting sites that tell a player he can get a higher star rating if he plays in a certain All-American game.

Or attend a certain school.